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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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1 hour ago, Bueryan said:

Shout out to my big brother on his 44th birthday. He used to wake me up in 1st grade to watch street lights and listen to his weather radio for NWS updates which started my weather interest. He also introduced me to the forum 8 or 9 years ago which my wife wishes never happened. He's watching the Huskies game but he'll find this eventually. Love you man

Hmmm…

He turned 27 today in 2005…

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Wind gusts are hitting the central and southern Oregon coast right now!  Already seeing gusts in the 40s with 50s likely later.  Already 400 new people are out of power within Coos County.  This wind will progressively get stronger until the early morning hours of Friday when it shifts to the Washington Coast and sputters in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Chances of strong gusts for the North Sound are diminishing. 

 

Screen Shot 2022-12-29 at 9.22.30 PM.png

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Jet retraction showing up very nicely on the 6z GFS and GEFS.  Now we're getting somewhere.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

Not much to report weather wise for my neck of the woods. Little breezy/gusty (18.5mph biggest), just 0.02in rain. Temp at 46.5*. Boring, but I am cool with that for now! :) 

I had a gust to 22 during the east wind portion of this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SEA is now at 7.40 inches for December which is just about 2 inches above normal... and at 40.11 inches for 2022.

The annual rainfall average jumped almost 2 inches with the 1991-2020 update to 39.34 inches.  Since then there was 43.33 inches in 2021 and now over 40 inches in 2022.    So Seattle's annual rainfall average keeps going up.    

SEA has recorded more than 40 inches of rain in 9 years just since 2010.   That is pretty impressive considering the average was only 37.49 inches per year before the averages were updated last year.

Seattle is getting warmer and wetter.   But the seasonal rainfall distribution is becoming more extreme with the cold season becoming wetter while the warm season becomes drier.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is now at 7.40 inches for December which is just about 2 inches above normal... and at 40.11 inches for 2022.

The annual rainfall average jumped almost 2 inches with the 1991-2020 update to 39.34 inches.  Since then there was 43.33 inches in 2021 and now over 40 inches in 2022.    So Seattle's annual rainfall average keeps going up.    

SEA has recorded more than 40 inches of rain in 9 years just since 2010.   That is pretty impressive considering the average was only 37.49 inches per year before the averages were updated last year.

Seattle is getting warmer and wetter.   But the seasonal rainfall distribution is becoming more extreme with the cold season becoming wetter while the warm season becomes drier.  

More north South gradient. Eugene has like 4” this month and we don’t have much more than Seattle, around 9” now. I don’t do calendar year rainfall, but we were above average for the previous water year and we are slightly below for the new on that started in October. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Jet retraction showing up very nicely on the 6z GFS and GEFS.  Now we're getting somewhere.

EPS says we have a long way to go.    

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3654400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-2358400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS says we have a long way to go.    

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3654400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-2358400.png

Not a surprise. Nothing of note is going to happen until the last week of the month and it may very well wait for the calendar flip. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I’m going to come out and say I am not

convinced we move right into a Nino next year. There is also a fairly good chance we experience ENSO neutral conditions. If I recall correctly we had two years of enso neutral conditions after the 2010-2012 Nina. Also wasn’t 2001-02 a neutral winter coming off the three year Nina? Could be wrong there, but I thought it was. 
 

It seems like there is an assumption we will automatically transition to a super

Nino, so I just wanted to point out that is not necessarily going to be the case. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wind just started roaring here... guess the SW wind behind this warm front finally punched through out here.   

Dang! No wind here, just a cloudy and mild morning! 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m going to come out and say I am not

convinced we move right into a Nino next year. There is also a fairly good chance we experience ENSO neutral conditions. If I recall correctly we had two years of enso neutral conditions after the 2010-2012 Nina. Also wasn’t 2001-02 a neutral winter coming off the three year Nina? Could be wrong there, but I thought it was. 
 

It seems like there is an assumption we will automatically transition to a super

Nino, so I just wanted to point out that is not necessarily going to be the case. 

There are some musings of a -ENSO 4-peat in the 1870s iirc. Maybe that happens again

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Whet and whindy this mourning.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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44 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

I haven't weighed in about the drought down here in a while because I know no one wants to hear about it (if it's not about SNOW or COLD, it's not worth posting), but yeah, it's shaping up to be yet another dry year. EUG is putting up negative departures for the month, calendar year, and water year so far. Most of the action is going north into WA or south into CA.

Screen Shot 2022-12-30 at 7.46.23 AM.jpg

If it makes you feel any better, YVR is behind on its yearly rainfall totals, too (40.61" vs 46.81").

It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m going to come out and say I am not

convinced we move right into a Nino next year. There is also a fairly good chance we experience ENSO neutral conditions. If I recall correctly we had two years of enso neutral conditions after the 2010-2012 Nina. Also wasn’t 2001-02 a neutral winter coming off the three year Nina? Could be wrong there, but I thought it was. 
 

It seems like there is an assumption we will automatically transition to a super

Nino, so I just wanted to point out that is not necessarily going to be the case. 

Yes.  Those were all neutral Enso years

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WIND STORM UPDATE

That storm moved right on up the Coast as expected last night and I woke up in the dark to some blustery winds. Still pretty gusty here.  Neat to see it come to fruition.  The storm did knock out power to pretty much every coastal county in Oregon, but in smaller numbers.  Roughly 4,000 up and down the coast.  Just a few outages in Jefferson and Clallam Counties in Washington. 

Gusts ranged from 20-40mph depending on location.  Coos Bay saw 38mph gusts just outside of town, Brookings 31mph, Bandon 32mph, Lincoln City saw 22mph, Garibaldi 29mph, Reedsport 29mph, Astoria 32mph.

In Washington Westport hit 38mph, Aberdeen saw 35mph, Quillayute 30mph, Neah Bay 35mph, Oak Harbor 31mph, Everett 40mph, Mukilteo 40mph Port Gamble 40mph, Bainbridge 29mph, Camano Island 30mph, Seattle 36mph, Green Lake 27mph, Newcastle 38mph, Renton 32mph, SeaTac 33mph, Tacoma Narrows 37mph, Bellingham 29mph, Cherry Point, 32mph, and so on and so forth.  

No one talked about this storm, not even the media leading up to it.  It didn't have as big a punch to Oregon, but arguably more to the North Puget Sound. It wasn't disappointing like the storm earlier in the week in that that one didn't meet expectations outside of Oregon.  The positive here is this one did far less damage, but still have some pretty strong gusts.  

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2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Hear me out.  This year felt like our climate was more continental.  Hot summer, cold, frigid winter, snow, ice storm, strong wind storms.

It feels like the past two years have been more continental than our actually climactic type.  hah.

Definitely.    

Lots of blocking the past 2 or 3 years.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Hear me out.  This year felt like our climate was more continental.  Hot summer, cold, frigid winter, snow, ice storm, strong wind storms.

It feels like the past two years have been more continental than our actually climactic type.  hah.

Yeah I don't disagree at all. The April-May/Summer/November flip were all very sudden. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Not having internet sucks. Elon Musk must not like power surges. Time to put the modem on a backup power supply/surge protector even though they do not recommend using any non Starlink equipment…But with already two failures in 3 months I need to do something. Hopefully he will be shipping me a new modem in the next few days. Not easy these days to not have internet/cell service except for one spot in the house where I can make a call out or check email…Sometimes. It’s in the closet, we call it the phone booth. Anyway had to run into work just to get service even though I am on vacation and thought I would come by the forum to say hi and hoping we get a massive regional windstorm and snowstorm next month! If not regional then northern Snohomish County would do just fine. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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