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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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Currently 45.3. Looks like my location could score a freeze tomorrow night!

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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2nd half of January is open season, especially if there is some very decent SPV disruption like some of the models are advertising.

Would be pretty easy for a blocking pattern to blow up out of nowhere given a SSW event.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Snow and cold will come back…but will it happen in January? 

Feb 1 Arctic front hits and drops all the way to Medford.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Feb 1 Arctic front hits and drops all the way to Medford.

1989 style

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Feb 1 Arctic front hits and drops all the way to Medford.

That’d be nice. I’m definitely still feeling good about something happening sometime from late January to mid February…although who knows sometimes the models flip to something good unexpectedly quick. I don’t forsee anything interesting for atleast 15+ days with a strong low in the GOA setting up…patterns reset though hopefully next time it’s good for everyone. 

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49 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How's the EPS?

The EPS has the EPO almost down to -1 by the end of the run.  That only goes to mid month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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48 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Currently 45.3. Looks like my location could score a freeze tomorrow night!

We could actually eke out a few below normal days to start January.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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OLM is already down to 34.  Some places have managed to clear out a bit.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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No doubt parts of the Puget Sound Basin from Tacoma to Everett are going have some big east winds centered around Wednesday.  Thankfully no model shows the gradients becoming too alarming, but I think some places could get into the 50s for wind speed.  Places more toward the Cascades could see higher than that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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PNA a bit below -1 late in the run.  Pretty solid signal for that far out.

1675641600-Xoz0VVqiMW4.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Currently 17 in Douglas (near Waterville).  How on Earth do they pull off numbers like that in this pattern?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Currently 17 in Douglas (near Waterville).  How on Earth do they pull off numbers like that in this pattern?

Parts of Minnesota are going to buried in snow with these 850mb temps.  😀

gfs-deterministic-minnesota-snow_24hr_kuchera-2790400.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-2790400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like the GFS wants to build a ridge over the Central Pacific on this run.  A different and maybe faster route to the good stuff.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

@hawkstwelve is going to buried in snow with these 850mb temps.  😀

gfs-deterministic-minnesota-snow_24hr_kuchera-2790400.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-2790400.png

I had no doubt he would do extremely well there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the GFS wants to build a ridge over the Central Pacific on this run.  A different and maybe faster route to the good stuff.

Or the next run will be totally different.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I had no doubt he would do extremely well there.

I actually updated my post because the GFS shows the main action to the north of him.   But places in MN will be buried.   And he is probably going to do very well per the ECMWF.

ecmwf-deterministic-minnesota-total_snow_kuchera-2833600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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No doubt this GFS run leaves the second half of January wide open.  Even what is shown at the end is colder than most of our recent January fare.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Or the next run will be totally different.

Yeah...it is really struggling right now.  At least all models agree on the Pacific slowing down later in week two.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I actually updated my post because the GFS shows the main action to the north of him.   But places in MN will be buried.   And he is probably going to do very well per the ECMWF.

ecmwf-deterministic-minnesota-total_snow_kuchera-2833600.png

I'm not too surprised this pattern would be prolific for that part of the country.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just an absolute turd of a weather day today to finish off a decent month.  The pathetic 49/44 here today pushed the monthly average up to 36.9.  Still pretty good I suppose.

I just hate this climate on days like this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Guest hawkstwelve
24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I actually updated my post because the GFS shows the main action to the north of him.   But places in MN will be buried.   And he is probably going to do very well per the ECMWF.

ecmwf-deterministic-minnesota-total_snow_kuchera-2833600.png

GFS has definitely been a NW outlier with this storm, even among its own ensembles. It's a point of discussion with NWS FSD over here - which track to believe. I've been riding with the Euro more than usual lately as the GFS seems to be flailing worse than usual and the NWS seems to be thinking the same. The Canadian has remained a nice middle ground and it's showing about 16 inches. For reference, FSD's highest daily snowfall is 18.1 inches on 3/10/56. 

gem-all-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2855200-2.png

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

We just got power back. forecast for today was for 1-4" of snow at lake level. we got 36" in 12 hours on top of the 8" of rain yesterday. worst storm I have ever seen. 

at point truckee got 7.5" of snow in 1 hour!

 

 

Wow. How much snow have you had this month total?

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For better or for worse EURO is no longer showing that wild mountain wave event-- wishy-washy and disgraced "king" for all the weird stuff it's been putting out lately.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 hours ago, Cloud said:

Blow torch. 🔥 

FB5D4955-E90A-480B-8248-61A54B53610B.gif

NWS Spokane is calling for average temps here in the long range.  All the ensembles are showing us getting a good amount of snow.  Not sure why they think it is supposed to be so warm here Definitely not any major cold, but it honestly looks like average temps over east of the mountains.

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52 minutes ago, Requiem said:

For better or for worse EURO is no longer showing that wild mountain wave event-- wishy-washy and disgraced "king" for all the weird stuff it's been putting out lately.

It's a tricky forecast with that intense low so close.  Some places will be windy.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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52 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

NWS Spokane is calling for average temps here in the long range.  All the ensembles are showing us getting a good amount of snow.  Not sure why they think it is supposed to be so warm here Definitely not any major cold, but it honestly looks like average temps over east of the mountains.

I agree.  Easterly gradients should keep it cool over there.  The ECMWF actually has the first 4 days of January below normal over here as well.  By mid-month the deck will be reshuffling and could get good for many of us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Yo @Deweydog am I supposed to be looking at heights or temps? 

C047093F-1C19-4B13-8E88-93007BA4726D.png

55F9F846-A93F-454D-8149-2D339B2EB1AE.png

Temps are probably best.  Regardless this looks promising.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Evidence is mounting we will be into a good pattern before the end of January.  It would be awesome to have a good event the second half of January to say the least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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