PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Snowdome]

Down to 26 in Oregon City. Briefly touched 40 earlier. 

[snow_wizard]

I see the torch after this is already getting watered down on the models.  The 18z GFS actually has some highs in the 30s again later in the run.

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

28.7 in Gladstone.  Spent the last couple hours raking the remaining leaves just as an excuse to be out at the start of an interesting event.  It felt great.

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Almost thought the warmth to the south was already shoving the 850s north, but when you run the loop it isn't.

It actually does start moving north overnight... the ECMWF shows 850mb temps above freezing over Portland by tomorrow morning.   Hard to believe we have arctic air tonight and by tomorrow morning 850mb temps are warmer than normal in western Oregon.   And 12 hours later that line is passing through Seattle.   Sucks that its happening so fast.

What a contrast in the air mass aloft across the PNW by 10 a.m. tomorrow...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

21 at forks. 

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It actually does start moving north overnight... the ECMWF shows 850mb temps above freezing over Portland by tomorrow morning.   Hard to believe we have arctic air tonight and by tomorrow morning 850mb temps are warmer than normal in western Oregon.   And 12 hours later that line is passing through Seattle.   Sucks that its happening so fast.

What a contrast in the air mass aloft across the PNW by 10 a.m. tomorrow...

Don't be a buzzkill, I would prefer to watching the erosion of cold air in real time if you may. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

 

Oh how I miss that. I still remember the magic of the early morning hours of 12/25/90 as I was the first one up, I started the fire and watched the heavy snowfall through our large windows as daybreak happened. I don’t have pics handy but the place went up for sale (my parents sold it in 1991 due to divorce) a few months ago and it hasn’t changed one bit inside. Brought back massive great memories looking at the MLS pics on Redfin. 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I've been thinking about it all day, we were sooo close to something epic and probably would of been a top 5 all time blasts if the forcing would of been better. If this thing had dug just a little more we would of been looking at something incredibly cold and snowy. The Monday night would of been 12+ inches from Olympia north easy.

We have had a foot of snow fall since Sunday afternoon here... but only a net of 8 inches due to the warm sector on Tuesday morning which melted 4 inches of it and resulted in heavy rain instead of another 10 inches of additional snow.   By my calculation we would have 22 inches on the ground now but only have 8 due to that 6-hour period in the middle... pretty crazy.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

The fact that this pattern is occurring the exact same week as 1983 and 1990 makes it a lot more difficult to break records across the West. Still, looks like many places may see their coldest highs and/or lows since then.

If it had happened a week earlier, lots of records would be falling.

That makes it all the more impressive. YVR is currently within a degree of its record low for the day set in 1990 today and even closer to beating its record for tomorrow assuming it continues to cool overnight. YYX is similarly close to beating its 1990 record. Going to be tougher to pull off in YYJ with the outflow and that airport's ideal location for radiation cooling. Did 1990 have more clear windless nights?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Don't be a buzzkill, I would prefer to watching the erosion of cold air in real time if you may. 

Sorry about that!   Hopefully the real time updates show the models are too aggressive with the warming.

[snow_wizard]

A -25 departure in Bellingham today and their low of 11 only missed the 1990 record by 3 degrees.

[Prairiedog]

29f with a dp of 21 between Carver and Redland on Clear Creek.  I've dropped 10 degrees since 2pm.  Not Cheyenne material but I'll take it.  Our daughter just flew in from Laramie.  Currently -7 with a windchill of -21f there.  We were there for Thanksgiving and stayed in a little community called Centennial at 8,000ft.  Besides unbelievable windchills, you can't stinkin breathe. 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Sorry about that!   Hopefully the real time updates show the models are too aggressive with the warming.

See, that was much easier than posting depression era maps.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

See, that was much easier than posting depression era maps.

There are going to be lots of freezing rain maps posted by people in the next 2 days... pretty depressing indeed but we want to know what is coming.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It actually does start moving north overnight... the ECMWF shows 850mb temps above freezing over Portland by tomorrow morning.   Hard to believe we have arctic air tonight and by tomorrow morning 850mb temps are warmer than normal in western Oregon.   And 12 hours later that line is passing through Seattle.   Sucks that its happening so fast.

What a contrast in the air mass aloft across the PNW by 10 a.m. tomorrow...

Would have been nice to be in a ridge for a few days to be able to enjoy the cold.

[xfkirsten]

Just ventured out to go load up on supplies - if we do get hit with storm-related outages, I wanted to make sure I had my prescriptions already filled, and fire logs and quick-and-easy food on hand. I was actually shocked that Target still had Duraflame logs/starters left, with this cold, I would have thought those would have been cleaned out long ago.

The road into my apartment complex is a solid sheet of ice. Going VERY slow, and gently easing on the brakes - I still slid. Hopefully no one misjudges that and slides into the intersection with the arterial road. (Thankfully there is a second entrance/exit that is much more clear!) The roads themselves are actually pretty clear, it's mainly the shoulders and turning lanes that are iced over (since they're not being used as often).

Got the email that hockey in Snoqualmie is back on tonight. I think I'm going to attempt it, since it's pretty much well-traveled roads most of the way there, that should be pretty clear. Fingers crossed! (I have a feeling that the make-up session scheduled tomorrow may not happen, so I want to get my skating in today...)

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM... could be worse.    

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS

So, the most challenging part of the forecast remains. A warm front
will lift across the region later Thursday and Friday, with warm air
aloft behind the front. Precipitation will spread northward, likely
beginning as light snow, then transitioning to a mix of sleet and
freezing rain, before becoming all freezing rain. Wish we could give
you a perfect forecast, but really, our goal is to help you make
smart decisions through risk assessment. And our purpose here at the
NWS is to protect lives and property. Hopefully we can help people
prepare as the risk for this event is fairly elevated, especially
through the Columbia Gorge and during a time of holiday travel.
Please see our latest Winter Storm Warnings and advisories for more
information. So timing wise, light snow likely will spread northward
Thursday afternoon and evening. Generally expecting a dusting up to
a inch of snow before the precip transitions to sleet (which may
accumulate some), and then transition to freezing rain. Along with
the cold air, this air mass will be very dry, so will take some time
to saturate down through the atmosphere. The timing of freezing rain
will vary across the area, but eventually will accumulate overnight
Thursday into Friday morning. Highest accumulations likely near the
Columbia River Gorge, and in parts of the north Oregon Coast Range
and Willapa Hills. Possible could see upwards of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
from Salem northward.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

There are going to be lots of freezing rain maps posted by people in the next 2 days... pretty depressing indeed but we want to know what is coming.

I will not lie, I hope everyone is safe and their properties and vehicles make it through unscathed, but I kinda hope for some pandemonium style freezing rain for a bit, it would be the most exciting part of winter here so far.

[Chowders]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Noting better than a wood stove in weather like this.

Love the wood stove. The one disagreement with my wife when building the house. She wanted gas, but finally gave in and now she wouldn't trade it for gas m

[Everleigh]

Down to 23.2* currently, although with some of the north breezes, the "feels like" temp has dropped to 14*. Brrr! 

Like everyone, I am really worried about this ice. I hope it's minimal. Hubby just started vacation today, but would have to go in if too many people lost power in the Tacoma area.  

[GHweatherChris]

My weather station is in a pretty bad spot for wind readings, no other option sadly, but its picking up enough of the easterly breeze that the windchill has been between 10-13 degrees the last half hour or so.  And yes, I have been outside in shorts pulling the extension cord leads to the house just in case we need them tomorrow.  Very refreshing.

Edited December 22, 2022 by GHweatherChris

[Perturbed Member]

Comparing 850mb data for 18z initialization vs 12z forecast as well as trend at 4PM today between 18z and 12z. 

We can see the euro seems to be running a bit warm at 850mb and the observed vs predicted values were too warm by about +2c at 2 PM and 5 PM at PDX as per SPC mesoanalysis. It may not end up mattering tomorrow but probably good to keep an eye on. 

[Perturbed Member]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z NAM... could be worse.    

Do you have a sleet map for the NAM?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

Do you have a sleet map for the NAM?

 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Does the snow map still look like crap? 

[Kayla]

55 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Crazy! Yet here at 6300' in the Sierra we are gonna be 50F tomorrow. All the other arctic air masses being listed like 2010, 2008 etc we were also cold. weird to have a top tier arctic air mass miss us entirely. I actually can't think of any others that did. 

Yeah those dug a lot more to the SW over NorCal. This airmass is a lot more like 1983 where the arctic airmass is just north and east of you.

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

That makes it all the more impressive. YVR is currently within a degree of its record low for the day set in 1990 today and even closer to beating its record for tomorrow assuming it continues to cool overnight. YYX is similarly close to beating its 1990 record. Going to be tougher to pull off in YYJ with the outflow and that airport's ideal location for radiation cooling. Did 1990 have more clear windless nights?

We had some clear windless nights in shawnigan in 1990.  I remember hitting low single digits at my parents house. I think it was 3F. The kitchen water lines froze one night. 

[GHweatherChris]

Starting to think flurries will be happening here by 10 AM tomorrow or earlier, give or take a bit.  Then after that, who knows.  

[Ellsworb]

1 hour ago, The Winter Warlock said:

How long is the procedure? Same-day outpatient? Asking err… for a friend.

Oh yea. In and out in 90 min. 

[Front Ranger]

22 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

That makes it all the more impressive. YVR is currently within a degree of its record low for the day set in 1990 today and even closer to beating its record for tomorrow assuming it continues to cool overnight. YYX is similarly close to beating its 1990 record. Going to be tougher to pull off in YYJ with the outflow and that airport's ideal location for radiation cooling. Did 1990 have more clear windless nights?

I believe the outflow was pretty strong and it was windy most places for a couple days after the initial blast, then it calmed down.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Does the snow map still look like crap? 

Yep...

 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yep...

 

We can't buy a good ol fashioned overrunning event any more, one that cripples all of the westside with inches of snow for half a day before subsiding, those were the days.  And only less than 10 years ago.

Edited December 22, 2022 by GHweatherChris

[Anti Marine Layer]

Solar noon today for the longest shortest shadow. Sun angle was 32.94.

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Starting to think flurries will be happening here by 10 AM tomorrow or earlier, give or take a bit.  Then after that, who knows.  

Its much closer per the satellite than I thought...

 

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, Chowders said:

Love the wood stove. The one disagreement with my wife when building the house. She wanted gas, but finally gave in and now she wouldn't trade it for gas m

We have both. Wood stove downstairs. Gas fireplace upstairs.  The heat from the wood stove feels the best on a cold day. 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Its much closer per the satellite than I thought...

 

Probably means that it will aggressively mix out the cold…

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Its much closer per the satellite than I thought...

 

It is trucking right along, of course we will some major deterioration of the leading edge for a bit here soon due to the offshore flow, but if it is gonna be as wet and warm eventually as progged moisture will be ahead of schedule.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Solar noon today for the longest shortest shadow. Sun angle was 32.94.

 

You're taller than you sound.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Forum Admin said:

Probably means that it will aggressively mix out the cold…

Doubt it.   Looks pretty disorganized and splitty.