PNW December 2022 - Part II

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28 at PDX. 22 Cascade Locks. 21 Hood River. 23 The Dalles. 

[TacomaWx]

Good lord that graphic shows like 21 hours straight of freezing rain here

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

28 at PDX. 22 Cascade Locks. 21 Hood River. 23 The Dalles. 

Really glad PDX isn't going to be something like 30 at midnight

[Kayla]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It may not mean a whole lot for Friday's precip type, but it does have quite the implication for our temperatures tonight. A deeper, more entrenched airmass means less clouds, deeper boundary layer, and less thermal energy in the lower atmosphere. Those differences compound and could allow for an extra few degrees of cooling.

I know I'm being a total weenie dork about the low temperatures tonight, but these kinds of rare instances of overperforming cold are growing even more rare by the year. And they are surrounded by an ever larger mass of heat records. I am relishing in this rare, precious win. Especially since the kind if cold potential tonight stacks big, right along our very best cold snaps even decades ago. That is something we haven't really seen in 12 years now, arguably since 1990.

It's pretty awesome. Really difficult to not geek out with this airmass!

Looking more and more likely that tomorrow will be the coldest day here since 1983 which has always been the crown jewel for cold. While this airmass is much more of a quick hitter, the fact that we are even competing for the single day all-time record cold from 1983 tomorrow is just insane to me. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I was kind of surprised to look back and remember that we hit 17 last year, and 13 in 2019, and 19 in 2017, 22 in Dec 2016, 16 in 2014....even though this air mass is 10x more impactful for the rest of the US and maybe we get some decent low highs out of it...we've had some pretty cold days the last 10 years. Yes the highs were never that impressive, and yes my house isnt Seatac and will always be a little colder...but it can and does get cold here every couple years. Wish I kept a journal about all of those "events" to look back on and eventually save. Especially now that i've taken up following the lead-ups closely. Would be cool reading for my family or children to go through later in life. A good chance for grandchildren to better understand "who I really was" at this age. OR I could just leave them my login and password here and that would work. 

 

maybe time to put the prosecco down lolz

I think the coldest high we've had was 22 degrees on 2/6/14 and the coldest low was something in the single digits on 1/13/17.

Was the 19 in 2017 in January or December?

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Good lord that graphic shows like 21 hours straight of freezing rain here

This target should wobble to another sweet spot……right……am I right

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Good lord that graphic shows like 21 hours straight of freezing rain here

Let’s hope 925 and 850 temps don’t rise to fast. I want more snow

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Good lord that graphic shows like 21 hours straight of freezing rain here

And I’m in the snow for 9hrs!!! 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I think the coldest high we've had was 22 degrees on 2/6/14 and the coldest low was something in the single digits on 1/13/17.

Was the 19 in 2017 in January or December?

January

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

I was kind of surprised to look back and remember that we hit 17 last year, and 13 in 2019, and 19 in 2017, 22 in Dec 2016, 16 in 2014....even though this air mass is 10x more impactful for the rest of the US and maybe we get some decent low highs out of it...we've had some pretty cold days the last 10 years. Yes the highs were never that impressive, and yes my house isnt Seatac and will always be a little colder...but it can and does get cold here every couple years. Wish I kept a journal about all of those "events" to look back on and eventually save. Especially now that i've taken up following the lead-ups closely. Would be cool reading for my family or children to go through later in life. A good chance for grandchildren to better understand "who I really was" at this age. OR I could just leave them my login and password here and that would work. 

 

maybe time to put the prosecco down lolz

The pieces have been almost all there, but have never quite made it until tonight. It's usually one thing, which is kind of frustrating.

Feb 2019 had the upper level support and buckets of snow, but kind of a weak airmass.

Jan 2020 had a god tier airmass and some snow, but hardly any upper level support.

Feb 2021 had the upper level support and the snow, and even the lower level cold, but it was simply too late in the year, and too cloudy.

Dec 2021 had pretty much everything perfectly right! But the details were almost all too wrong, and it was far too moist overall. That night we hit 13F, it was mostly cloudy. It was truly a beast of a polar lobe. But we never cleared up. KSEA only got down to 17F as a result.

This go around we have the snow, the upper level support (barely!), a true beast of a low level airmass on par with some of the greats, and now, finally the cloudless long nights that maximize insulation. The perfect combination for getting cold mins. And to boot, tomorrow morning cloudcover increases while gradients remain offshore, so we will also maximize our frigid high temperature potential tomorrow. Just awesome to see.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

25.1756 degrees currently after a high of 32.2569 today.  Got some liquid gold for the genny just in case.  Like @MR.SNOWMIZER I feel like there could be more snow than progged before the switchover to potentially damaging ice.  How long we hold on to the offshore flow is important, but will need to keep an eye on the 825 and 950 temps starting tomorrow morning, I will post the current ones shortly and if an admin or staff member could pin the post they will update  as each hour passes on the forum at the top, @Meatyorologist @snow_wizard @TT-SEA, I know there are others, too lazy to find em.

We’ll check against the models as well to see what they predict for this levels. A few hours of staying colder or they are colder than the models appears to be quite crucial. 

[MikeInEverett]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And I’m in the snow for 9hrs!!! 

RGEM gives us 4+ inches!!

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

It's pretty awesome. Really difficult to not geek out with this airmass!

Looking more and more likely that tomorrow will be the coldest day here since 1983 which has always been the crown jewel for cold. While this airmass is much more of a quick hitter, the fact that we are even competing for the single day all-time record cold from 1983 tomorrow is just insane to me. 

Competing with Jan 1950 or Jan 1880 here for cold potential would have me losing it. It's theoretically possible in this part of the city, but not the airport or downtown, not anymore at least.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Let’s hope 925 and 850 temps don’t rise to fast. I want more snow

I wouldn’t be surprised if it snows lightly for a bit tomorrow afternoon here. It likely would be brief with very little accumulation if any. I’m definitely worried about me commuting to work Friday it’ll be rough in Tacoma. 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Rgem shows an extended period of snowfall from SeaTac north. 

I really hope it’s right.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

The pieces have been almost all there, but have never quite made it until tonight. It's usually one thing, which is kind of frustrating.

Feb 2019 had the upper level support and buckets of snow, but kind of a weak airmass.

Jan 2020 had a god tier airmass and some snow, but hardly any upper level support.

Feb 2021 had the upper level support and the snow, and even the lower level cold, but it was simply too late in the year, and too cloudy.

Dec 2021 had pretty much everything perfectly right! But the details were almost all too wrong, and it was far too moist overall. That night we hit 13F, it was mostly cloudy. It was truly a beast of a polar lobe. But we never cleared up. KSEA only got down to 17F as a result.

This go around we have the snow, the upper level support (barely!), a true beast of a low level airmass on par with some of the greats, and now, finally the cloudless long nights that maximize insulation. The perfect combination for getting cold mins. And to boot, tomorrow morning cloudcover increases while gradients remain offshore, so we will also maximize our frigid high temperature potential tomorrow. Just awesome to see.

Our coldest temp of the century was under an inversion I think in 2017. PDX dropped to 11 and Hillsboro dropped to 3. Just calm clear nights with very deep snow cover. Would be nice to see a decent airmass with snow cover here and calm, clear nights.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Forgot we had snow on this date two years ago today as well! 

That was a great snowfall! The official forecasts totally missed it even though the models were very clear about it.

I posted something in the Bellingham reddit that the official forecast didn’t make sense to me because it was obviously going to snow, and was met with ridicule and derision because it had been so mild recently and the official forecasts had no mention of snow. Followed the next afternoon by “OMG, how did you know?” and apologies galore.

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Competing with Jan 1950 or Jan 1880 here for cold potential would have me losing it. It's theoretically possible in this part of the city, but not the airport or downtown, not anymore at least.

If there was just a bit more digging to the SW, ugh. I can’t stop thinking about what could’ve been, even though it’s been pretty darn impressive anyways.

[TacomaWx]

The side streets here in Tacoma are in rough shape tonight already. Most of my neighborhood roads are a sheet of ice.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I know the GFS has struggled with snow maps, but the 0z shows a large amount of snow in the south Sound.

[Skagit Weather]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The pieces have been almost all there, but have never quite made it until tonight. It's usually one thing, which is kind of frustrating.

Feb 2019 had the upper level support and buckets of snow, but kind of a weak airmass.

Jan 2020 had a god tier airmass and some snow, but hardly any upper level support.

Feb 2021 had the upper level support and the snow, and even the lower level cold, but it was simply too late in the year, and too cloudy.

Dec 2021 had pretty much everything perfectly right! But the details were almost all too wrong, and it was far too moist overall. That night we hit 13F, it was mostly cloudy. It was truly a beast of a polar lobe. But we never cleared up. KSEA only got down to 17F as a result.

This go around we have the snow, the upper level support (barely!), a true beast of a low level airmass on par with some of the greats, and now, finally the cloudless long nights that maximize insulation. The perfect combination for getting cold mins. And to boot, tomorrow morning cloudcover increases while gradients remain offshore, so we will also maximize our frigid high temperature potential tomorrow. Just awesome to see.

As others have mentioned, don't you think winds and cloud cover will limit potential a bit? It looks to me like high clouds will move through for much of the night before really building before sunrise and winds will be pretty consistent throughout the night. Bouncing between 12F and 14F right now as random gusts of wind come along. I think it's pretty unlikely we get anywhere near the 2F from 2008 and I'm skeptical we hit the 6.6F from last December, although I understand Seattle and environs didn't luck out with those blasts.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I know the GFS has struggled with snow maps, but the 0z shows a large amount of snow in the south Sound.

thats all sleet

[RentonHill]

[awright-31]

3 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I know the GFS has struggled with snow maps, but the 0z shows a large amount of snow in the south Sound.

That is definitely all sleet. GFS has been pretty insistent the primary precip type we will see will be sleet.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

I know the GFS has struggled with snow maps, but the 0z shows a large amount of snow in the south Sound.

Map includes sleet.

[GHweatherChris]

10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

We’ll check against the models as well to see what they predict for this levels. A few hours of staying colder or they are colder than the models appears to be quite crucial. 

Recent situations hedges towards we warm up quickly as progged, but there might an oldish school curve ball thrown, I will know pretty quick once any precip moves in tomorrow.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The side streets here in Tacoma are in rough shape tonight already. Most of my neighborhood roads are a sheet of ice.

I had to drive into town (Stanwood) today to mail a bunch of stuff at the post office, all roads in the area look like my road, seemed to have really good traction, I feel like dry snow events from the beginning like what happened up here prevents the major rutty compact snow and ice that comes with wet snow events. Only I-5 was clear around here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

-2 in omak.

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Map includes sleet.

I would take 3 to 5 inches of sleet at this point.

[Doinko]

-1 degrees and light snow right now in Denver

[Kayla]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Competing with Jan 1950 or Jan 1880 here for cold potential would have me losing it. It's theoretically possible in this part of the city, but not the airport or downtown, not anymore at least.

Yeah it's been hard to wrap my head around what is actually happening right now. Fortunately the airport is still pretty remote but they have broken ground on a massive complex for shopping and hotels nearby so I'm sure we'll see the UHI take more effect there over the coming couple of years.

The downtown station (MSU) is probably already a lost cause but it still seems not horribly affected by UHI.

[Weiner Warrior]

I wouldn't mind a few inches of sleet

 

 

[jcmcgaffey]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Forgot we had snow on this date two years ago today as well! 

Interesting. Komo says it was a record high for Seattle. They are off so often with their records. 

[GHweatherChris]

The system offshore is trucking along pretty good still.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I had to drive into town (Stanwood) today to mail a bunch of stuff at the post office, all roads in the area look like my road, seemed to have really good traction, I feel like dry snow events from the beginning like what happened up here prevents the major rutty compact snow and ice that comes with wet snow events. Only I-5 was clear around here. 

The roads are bad here because all the rain froze up then it snowed shortly afterwards. The main roads are 100% fine. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

A -25 departure in Bellingham today and their low of 11 only missed the 1990 record by 3 degrees.

Looks likely they'll drop lower than that, already some 10s in the latest hour.

[RentonHill]

Freezing rain is the same...if not a little bit more on 00z vs 18z GFS. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

thats all sleet

Most likely, but if the airmass actually does turn out to be colder/deeper than forecast that gives an idea of how much you might expect. This airmass is exceptionally cold and dry. I've seen modeled sleet end up as all snow before.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Interesting. Komo says it was a record high for Seattle. They are off so often with their records. 

No that's right.

Seattle set a record high and then temps crashed that night and it snowed. 

[Deweydog]

January arrives on the Euro tonight! Kinda…