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PNW December 2022 - Part II


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4 minutes ago, DRG said:

Alright, I'm confused.  Why the F is it snowing?!?  SE Portland, about 300' ASL.  Not home, but it's snowing according to my cam feed and there's nothing showing up on radar.  Have I mentioned that I'm confused?

 

@Gradient Keeperyo what’s going on down there?

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4 minutes ago, DRG said:

Alright, I'm confused.  Why the F is it snowing?!?  SE Portland, about 300' ASL.  Not home, but it's snowing according to my cam feed and there's nothing showing up on radar.  Have I mentioned that I'm confused?

 

It’s a Christmas miracle!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, DRG said:

Alright, I'm confused.  Why the F is it snowing?!?  SE Portland, about 300' ASL.  Not home, but it's snowing according to my cam feed and there's nothing showing up on radar.  Have I mentioned that I'm confused?

 

weather got a mind of its own looks like 🤣

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6 minutes ago, DRG said:

Alright, I'm confused.  Why the F is it snowing?!?  SE Portland, about 300' ASL.  Not home, but it's snowing according to my cam feed and there's nothing showing up on radar.  Have I mentioned that I'm confused?

 

Crazy. Upper air temps 925mb, 850mb are too warm to support snow. I am however sitting at 31.4 near west Gresham. NWS AFD says offshore flow will increase tonight into tomorrow morning pulling more cold air out of the Gorge. Hmmmm!

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12 minutes ago, DRG said:

Alright, I'm confused.  Why the F is it snowing?!?  SE Portland, about 300' ASL.  Not home, but it's snowing according to my cam feed and there's nothing showing up on radar.  Have I mentioned that I'm confused?

 

image.jpeg

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Major developments on the ECMWF tonight.

1. Possible significant wind event for Puget Sound

2. Major trough digging over NW Pacific later in the run.

3. Central Pacific ridge rapidly pumping up ahead of the NW Pacific trough.

Winter is not over…It has just begun!!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Hmmmm.

Pacific low pressure being pushed close to the West Coast as pressure rapidly rises over the Central and Western GOA.

1672790400-9nLBs4tZfrk.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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19 minutes ago, DRG said:

Alright, I'm confused.  Why the F is it snowing?!?  SE Portland, about 300' ASL.  Not home, but it's snowing according to my cam feed and there's nothing showing up on radar.  Have I mentioned that I'm confused?

 

We have thick low level clouds and this is likely due to upslope flow due to light Gorge outflow. It's the same thing that gave me heavy snow flurries yesterday out of nowhere.

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Winter is not over…It has just begun!!! 

January might just have a chance this winter.  Still really tenuous, but it just might.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Major developments on the ECMWF tonight.

1. Possible significant wind event for Puget Sound

2. Major trough digging over NW Pacific later in the run.

3. Central Pacific ridge rapidly pumping up ahead of the NW Pacific trough.

For us newbies, what do 2 and 3 mean specifically?

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Major developments on the ECMWF tonight.

1. Possible significant wind event for Puget Sound

2. Major trough digging over NW Pacific later in the run.

3. Central Pacific ridge rapidly pumping up ahead of the NW Pacific trough.

With the trough retrograding that ridge would probably explode.

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The Gorge influence has shrunk to a sliver, but damn impressive.  34/28 for PDX today.  Congrats guys!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

We have thick low level clouds and this is likely due to upslope flow due to light Gorge outflow. It's the same thing that gave me heavy snow flurries yesterday out of nowhere.

I swear, the more I learn...the less I know.  Good grief my brain hurts. This is Mt Tabor if that helps you make sense of the upside down world...

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Major developments on the ECMWF tonight.

1. Possible significant wind event for Puget Sound

2. Major trough digging over NW Pacific later in the run.

3. Central Pacific ridge rapidly pumping up ahead of the NW Pacific trough.

GEFS crushes the ridge with a trough, could easily go the other way.

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3 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

For us newbies, what do 2 and 3 mean specifically?

It could be the early stages of the Pacific getting shut down again.  That of course means cold for us.  Still too early to get too excited but, that digging over the NW Pacific is big on this ECMWF run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

GEFS crushes the ridge with a trough, could easily go the other way.

The ECMWF digs the trough over the NW Pacific much harder though.  That is the key.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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I can already see the EPS has the same changes coming off of Asia that the ECMWF operational had about a week out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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PDX NWS watching Tuesday very closely.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...The region will be dominated by mild, very wet conditions and windy at times too. Latest deterministic models show an even stronger system Tuesday, with the GFS/EURO are both showing a very strong ~968 to 976 mb low near coast of WA to south Vancouver Island B.C. Tuesday afternoon. GEFS and EPS ensemble solutions differ on on the location of the low as well. Most of the EPS ensembles take the low closer to Vancouver Island, while to the WA coast for the GEFS. NCEP upper air cluster analysis show all clusters for Tuesday are good agreement. The differences are similar to those noted in the ensemble members above. ECMWF EFI (indicates how unusual the forecast is) currently indicating 90-95 percent of the ensemble members are on the extreme end for wind at the coast and 80-90 percent for the interior. With this in mind will need to monitor this storm system closely as a high-impact wind storm at the coast is possible. Wind impacts may extend to the inland valleys as well Tuesday afternoon and evening per current model timing.
 

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33 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

We have thick low level clouds and this is likely due to upslope flow due to light Gorge outflow. It's the same thing that gave me heavy snow flurries yesterday out of nowhere.

What also pops my porous brain is that everything was actively melting earlier this afternoon... But now it's (still) lightly snowing?  

I'm going to bed before I piss off Krampus anymore

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25 minutes ago, DRG said:

What also pops my porous brain is that everything was actively melting earlier this afternoon... But now it's (still) lightly snowing?  

I'm going to bed before I piss off Krampus anymore

I've gotten doubt from some mets and a PDX meteorologist when I shared this with them... they don't believe it is snowing, but your ring cam seems convincing. Are you sure it's snowing and not just some snow blowing off of a roof or something?

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Been off the forum since this morning (or yesterday morning now, I suppose). Really shocked to see how quickly the snow vanished for many of you on Saturday. Mine basically looks the same as it did before the warmup, except coated in ice, and slush developing in the low spots,  even with temps reaching into the mid-40s.

Looks like we dodged the flood bullet in the warmup, which has been occupying a lot of my headspace the past 48 hours.

Merry Christmas, everyone.

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I-90 and Summit at Snoqualmie are still closed as they try to clean up from all the snow and then ice that fell.

I see its 42 at the pass this morning though so the east wind periods won't be cold for the next few days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 hours ago, gusky said:

I've gotten doubt from some mets and a PDX meteorologist when I shared this with them... they don't believe it is snowing, but your ring cam seems convincing. Are you sure it's snowing and not just some snow blowing off of a roof or something?

It's old video.

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