PNW December 2022 - Part II

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

No way that is correct. It will not be as cold in bremerton as in bellingham. 

Well there is a bunch of heavy rain on Saturday morning... better pray its above 32 at that time.

[lowlandsnow]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

BZN all-time record is -46. Bozeman MSU record is (was) -43.

Bozeman MSU's all-time record was also set in February the -45 today is 9 degrees colder than the previous all-time December record

[DRG]

Just drove over hwy 26 to Astoria from Portland (over the river and thru the woods to mom n dad's house we go) Car thermo is reading 27.  No precip reaching the ground yet.  Looks like our educated gamble to beat the weather weirdness worked (phew).  Roads were bone dry with a couple very isolated icy patches.  Hardly anyone on the road.

[Deweydog]

We’re almost the coldest spot in the CONUS at 5,000 feet next Thursday morning!

[Olive1010]

Yeah our family had to cancel plans to ski because the ice storm.

[MV_snow]

SEA NWS zone forecast just increased my snow and reduced my ice accumulation to under 0.10”. Hope they’re right, but I’m nervous that the 12z Euro shows so much more ice.

[Doinko]

Could someone post wind gusts from that Tuesday windstorm on the Euro?

[lowlandsnow]

Still 19 at SeaTac a high below 27 seems very likely

[Phishy Wx]

it really does take such a perfect setup to bottom out west of the rockies

no wind, no clouds, majority of arctic high pressure Polar lobe centered in BC not Alberta

no doubt it can happen but hasn't to record territory in Spokane in the 5 winters I've been here, 3 as a Nina.  I'm pretty sure a Neutral ENSO winter now may be our best chances in E WA for record cold.  Thought this blast would do it, nope.  it is however the coldest in 11 years though here

[Kayla]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Bozeman MSU's all-time record was also set in February the -45 today is 9 degrees colder than the previous all-time December record

That's a good point. They shattered their December record. They will also shatter their all-time record coldest day by nearly 10 degrees as well. I can't imagine their high being much above -25 today which would give them an average temp of -35 on the day.

Simply incredible.

[Tor]

34 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I had light bulbs on my two feeders last year but this year covid and RSV put a damper on my energy level so I didn't to it.  I figure I have only one day to keep alternating the feeders before it warms up.  I read where the hummingbirds have a tough time surviving in real cold temps when they are used to feeders, so I've been thoroughly guilted into this.

Hot Hands (hand warmer) inside a fabric pouch sealed with velcro stuck to the bottom of the feeder with double sided tape works great. Got mine from a place in Olympia years ago.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

18 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Not aggressive might even be an exaggeration.  I can't see that it has budged in the last hour and a half I have been watching it.

Lol.  Like watching paint dry.  

[Front Ranger]

20 minutes ago, Kayla said:

BZN all-time record is -46. Bozeman MSU record is (was) -43.

Ah. I didn't realize they were separate stations.

[Phishy Wx]

But there was this

 

 

[xfkirsten]

It's already almost 11am, and we're only at 21 here in lowland Redmond.

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 21 and sunny after a low of 15 this morning.

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

it really does take such a perfect setup to bottom out west of the rockies

no wind, no clouds, majority of arctic high pressure Polar lobe centered in BC not Alberta

no doubt it can happen but hasn't to record territory in Spokane in the 5 winters I've been here, 3 as a Nina.  I'm pretty sure a Neutral ENSO winter now may be our best chances in E WA for record cold.  Thought this blast would do it, nope.  it is however the coldest in 11 years though here

Pullman hit their coldest temp in 32 years. Although their records seem a little wonky with different stations.

[Perturbed Member]

This stuff to the west might make it to the ground as some light snow or sleet in the next 1-2 hours. Probably would be too light to really accumulate.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

34 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

Anyone wanna take a stab at when the ice will start in the central sound?  Travel concerns for kids tomorrow...

Models have it starting overnight but I am thinking they are a little too aggressive. Huge guess from a novice would be early morning. I think we will see a mix and then some sleet and then some freezing rain. I don't think it will warm up as fast as models are saying. This is especially true for Eastern parts of King and Snohomish County. Seattle proper may be a quicker warm up ad they won't have access to quite ad much cold air from over the passes.

I'm not planning on any travel tomorrow. I would do it tonight or possibly tomorrow night or even Saturday morning. And make sure vehicles are gassed full today for sure. 

[TacomaWx]

Tomorrow likely will be worse than forecast. Lots of times it works in our favor when the models scour the cold air out too fast…it’ll be our downfall tomorrow. 23 in Tacoma after a low of 19. 

[TT-SEA]

I am concerned about the fact that the models always rush the scouring out of cold air and the crap ton of precip being shown on Saturday.   ECMWF says its all rain... but playing with fire with that much precip and knowing the models might be warming us too fast.  

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am concerned about the fact that the models always rush the scouring out of cold air and the crap ton of precip being shown on Saturday.   ECMWF says its all rain... but playing with fire with that much precip and knowing the models might be warming us too fast.  

I expect it to be really really bad here. Probably not as much ice as 2012 but will do the same type of damage. 

[KingstonWX]

4 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Models have it starting overnight but I am thinking they are a little too aggressive. Huge guess from a novice would be early morning. I think we will see a mix and then some sleet and then some freezing rain. I don't think it will warm up as fast as models are saying. This is especially true for Eastern parts of King and Snohomish County. Seattle proper may be a quicker warm up ad they won't have access to quite ad much cold air from over the passes.

I'm not planning on any travel tomorrow. I would do it tonight or possibly tomorrow night or even Saturday morning. And make sure vehicles are gassed full today for sure. 

Doesn't the eastside sometimes warm up faster than areas closer to the water in these warm air aloft situations?

[Randyc321]

10 minutes ago, xfkirsten said:

It's already almost 11am, and we're only at 21 here in lowland Redmond.

24 deg w/ dp of 12 in Bainbridge Island.  Wind about 1 mph.  Solid cloud deck here now.  Temp didn't increase much with the clouds. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Winter storm watch upgraded to a warning here. Still calling for 4 to 8 inches.

[Cloud]

 

850s +6 hours.  

 

This to me look like the models are slightly too aggressive.

I don’t think we’ll escape the ZR stuff. But the upper air being colder than progged means a delayed to the ZR with more snow and sleet. We’ll see

[Randyc321]

11 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

This stuff to the west might make it to the ground as some light snow or sleet in the next 1-2 hours. Probably would be too light to really accumulate.

Just checked that out, and sadly your east wind says, nope.  Being shredded.

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

This stuff to the west might make it to the ground as some light snow or sleet in the next 1-2 hours. Probably would be too light to really accumulate.

Should have something reaching the ground at the coast shortly.

[KingstonWX]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

850s +6 hours.  

 

This to me look like the models are slightly too aggressive.

I don’t think we’ll escape the ZR stuff. But the upper air being colder than progged means a delayed to the ZR with more snow and sleet. We’ll see

The NWS pinpoint forecast for my area now says snow until 4am. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[xfkirsten]

WSDOT has already made the call to keep the Express Lanes soundbound at least until tomorrow morning:

 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like -NAO blocking is starting to reassert by the end of recent model runs. Good sign...the sooner the NH atmosphere can start getting plugged up again, the better.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The komo radar shows snow way the hell out in the ocean. Further out than models were showing. It is pretty accurate to from waching it on the last event. Take a look at the komo 4 radar

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The komo radar shows snow way the hell out in the ocean. Further out than models were showing. It is pretty accurate to from waching it on the last event. Take a look at the komo 4 radar

Noticed that here too...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

God we might get lucky and a bunch of this will be snow and sleet.

The offshore flow with this is brutal.  

 

[Cloud]

BFI got down to 16 this morning.   

[gusky]

Hard to believe I've only been on here a year... thanks to everyone for building an engaging and welcoming community!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Should be a ton of evaporative cooling down through the boundary layer.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

God we might get lucky and a bunch of this will be snow and sleet.

The offshore flow with this is brutal.  

 

I just don't know the point at which snow is impossible when 850mb and 925mb temps cannot support it... even if the cold outflow continues.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 30 below out at my cabin is pretty incredible. 

The valley below was close to 40 below just by past history.