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PNW December 2022 - Part II


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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If you believe it, then somehow they pulled off a seven degree drop in eight minutes with no change in winds or DP.

I certainly would like to see some corroboration with another nearby station.  We had the same (although weakened) wind surge come through here this morning and there was a very quick temp spike with it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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I'll be surprised if we see strong winds here. We are a very calm location.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like -3 or -4 per the ECMWF and its brief... back to 0C by Thursday.

Still not terrible.  The warmest weather we are going to see has pretty much happened already.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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The weeklies show the PNA going minus on the 19th.  Not bad.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Longtimer
7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Is it really needed?  There was historic cold nationwide, and I don't remember it being associated with a SSW event.  Maybe it was?

It has seemed to bring us the goods in years past or am I off on that? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Still not terrible.  The warmest weather we are going to see has pretty much happened already.

True.   I doubt the near 60 degree weather can continue for an extended period of time.    That is about 15 degrees warmer than normal.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I certainly would like to see some corroboration with another nearby station.  We had the same (although weakened) wind surge come through here this morning and there was a very quick temp spike with it.

Ocean Shores maxed out in the mid 50’s overnight.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

True.   I doubt the near 60 degree weather can continue for an extended period of time.    That is about 15 degrees warmer than normal.

It hasn't gotten anywhere near 60 around here.

The ECMWF itself spits out highs a bit below normal for the most part after tomorrow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Ocean Shores maxed out in the mid 50’s overnight.

The thing that throws me is there is no sign at all of the station malfunctioning.  I'll be interested to see what they do for the official obs for today.  I'm sure they will investigate it due to it being so extreme for this time of year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Longtimer
21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the low fades out too much before it reaches the critical spot.  I think the ECMWF call for gusts around 50 is probably about right.

Looking more significant in western OR. Which is definitely due for a big storm and due to outperform the Puget Sound in a wind event.

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I'm really surprised how close the ECMWF weeklies and the GEFS extended are regarding the pattern evolution next month.  Maybe it's correct.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I am growing more jealous by the moment as my wife and kids are flying out to the Cabo area tomorrow to join our neighbors/friends at their beach house there. It’s too hard for me to leave the house in the winter since my mom lives with us and the risk of power outages, etc are just too great for me to go far from the house this time of the year. I will be going in the spring however, looking forward to that! Looks like they will have perfect weather. 

046A9E59-9939-4B1C-B5C4-BE8BE7B0C68E.png

You earned a vomit emoji from the person who hates any weather that is not wet and cold... kudos to you!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It hasn't gotten anywhere near 60 around here.

The ECMWF itself spits out highs a bit below normal for the most part after tomorrow.

57 at SEA and 60 at BLI.   We even managed mid 50s here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The NWS not even going for a high wind watch with the storm tomorrow.  I might at least do that just to advertise something might happen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

57 at SEA and 60 at BLI.   We even managed mid 50s here.   

Didn't know about the BLI number.  Won't even put a dent in their monthly average though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

The Euro weeklies showed the early December cold well in advance as well

Another round would certainly not be shocking this season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The NWS not even going for a high wind watch with the storm tomorrow.  I might at least do that just to advertise something might happen.

My winds will mostly be coming from the westerly surge down the Strait late in the day tomorrow like Swanny and Cliff Mass has mentioned. They probably won’t post any warnings in my area until tomorrow morning. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Didn't know about the BLI number.  Won't even put a dent in their monthly average though.

I don't pay too much attention to monthly averages.   I like memorable events and we sure had that the last week!    I would rather have a torchy month with a week of cold and snowy fun in the middle over a month of below normal weather with nothing memorable.   Normal temps in the winter is pretty boring around here.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You earned a vomit emoji from the person who hates any weather that is not wet and cold... kudos to you!  

And he gave me that emoji within seconds of me posting! He was on it! Perhaps he is sad for me since I will be staying home in garbage 40’s and rain…🤣

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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46 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Cliff calling for a big time regional wind event. He’s on the high side of models and I think he will nail it. Windstorms are his sweet spot and this is a really nice track. image.thumb.png.730aa0d07963032be381e86740aa8fce.pngimage.thumb.png.2f3a35903d4641041f1cb219d3608271.png

Preparing for outages during the ice storm paid off. Didn’t lose power somehow, but definitely may have blackouts this round. 

Feels like this windstorm didn’t catch much hype and the general public might be unaware of what’s to come. But if they panic bought before the snow and ice events, I’m sure they’ll be fine. 

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All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
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8 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Ground is very saturated, most likely many outages tomorrow night. Wonder if a High Wind Watch will be posted soon. 

I think they are planning on going with an advisory which won't show up until tomorrow.  A watch may not be a terrible idea given the circumstances though.  If they were going to issue a watch they probably would have done it already.  The low will be washing out when it gets into the prime area so it won't be super bad in all likelihood. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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I just don't get the wind thing on here.  I pretty much dread it when it appears likely.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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Just a weird situation tomorrow.  The trajectory of the low is very flat.  Just not a classic IMO.  I think the 18z GFS may be yawning about it a bit too much though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Longtimer
13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just don't get the wind thing on here.  I pretty much dread it when it appears likely.  

Some people don’t like cold and snow or sun and Heat either…Personal preferences! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just don't get the wind thing on here.  I pretty much dread it when it appears likely.  

I enjoy a good windstorm but because I work in park maintenance I don't care for the cleanup required.  Since I am on vacation this week, my coworkers who are working can deal with it if anything significant happens.  The Hanukkah Eve storm in 2006 was terrible...it took us weeks to clear the 5 mile drive at Point Defiance.  Don't want to deal with that again!

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Looking more significant in western OR. Which is definitely due for a big storm and due to outperform the Puget Sound in a wind event.

I picked up gas for the generator. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It's looking like the bent-back occlusion swings around and nails western Oregon with a tighter gradient-- therefore causing those amplified gusts.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just don't get the wind thing on here.  I pretty much dread it when it appears likely.  

I agree.  I've had my fill of ice and being our neighborhood is in a forested location (albeit we're protected some with the southerlies going mostly over the top of us) with winds 45 or greater they'll still mix down somewhat to us.  Power outages will be the rule and always the risk of tree damage to property.  It will be stressful.  The trees exacerbate the sound of the wind and you're just waiting for something sinister to happen.  I love the storm and power, I hate what it can bring. 

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11 minutes ago, Requiem said:

It's looking like the bent-back occlusion swings around and nails western Oregon with a tighter gradient-- therefore causing those amplified gusts.

Ugh

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

The older I get the less I like wind storms. Probably because of my fear of a tree falling on the house and having to pay money to fix things. I'm thinking we should see some gusts up to 50 mph. Anything higher we may be in trouble with how saturated the ground is.

I am a fan of all big weather! Even if it means I will be having a day date with my chainsaw afterwards! I was genuinely disappointed that my area was shadowed during much of the icing event. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Imagine if all this moisture was falling as SNOW!

There would be extensive tree damage if it was wet snow! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Wind Advisory, but it says gusts to 75 possible…

Gotta be one of the stranger advisories I've seen... ever. South winds 30-50 gusting 75-- that's HWW status. Makes me wonder if they made a typo or something 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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