PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Doinko]

23/20 back home so far today, that's a lot better than I was expecting

[xfkirsten]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Glad to hear this... last night of hockey camp is tonight. Got to make it through the end of the session in Snoqualmie at 9pm and back home, and then it can do what it will!

[Perturbed Member]

3PM 850s

[Dave]

Pretty sweet that this top tier all time cold spell ends up with a couple of frozen raindrops. I'm packing up the minivan and taking tiger with me to Indiana. 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

3PM 850s

Really don't see how this gets dislodged so easily-- pretty well-entrenched cold air.

[xfkirsten]

NWS updated their timeline graphic!

 

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Really don't see how this gets dislodged so easily-- pretty well-entrenched cold air.

Anything falling down there yet? 

[Snownerd3000]

What if the models completely the bed and we all just get a fook ton of snow?

[Deweydog]

Definitely a sleet signature with the brightening of echoes east of the coast and range.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

What if the models completely the bed and we all just get a fook ton of snow?

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sleet in Salem! 

[Gummy]

10 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

What if the models completely the bed and we all just get a fook ton of snow?

Highly unlikely, models do get precip totals and the warming up of the 850/925 levels wrong sometimes though.  I think a more likely 'best case' type of scenario would be like 2 to 2.5 inches in Seattle, which is double what the Euro shows I believe.  Not that I think that will happen, just hoping it will.

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, Dave said:

Pretty sweet that this top tier all time cold spell ends up with a couple of frozen raindrops. I'm packing up the minivan and taking tiger with me to Indiana. 

At least June 2021 was a regional direct hit.

[Parrot]

8 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

What if the models completely the bed and we all just get a fook ton of snow?

Sure, we just have to do a ritual snow dance and we will appease the snow gods!

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Parrot said:

Sure, we just have to do a ritual snow dance and we will appease the snow gods!

Let me just grab my cowboy hat 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

At least June 2021 was a regional direct hit.

I only made it to 103.

[WeatherGeek2022]

10 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

What if the models completely the bed and we all just get a fook ton of snow?

 

[Cloud]

Back down to 23 here.. 25 at BFI. 23 at SEA. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

 

Stupid computer models are too accurate these days for this type of miracle.

[TT-SEA]

18Z ECMWF is significantly warmer in the Seattle area by tomorrow afternoon than the 12Z run at the same time.

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Stupid computer models are too accurate these days for this type of miracle.

u right

[Terreboner]

If you considered our high temperature to be only during daylight hours, today it would be 3.9 degrees.  Still snowing and miserable outside (physically that is).

[SouthHillFrosty]

Lake Fenwick has some solid ice 

[TacomaWx]

25/19 today unless we warm up before midnight. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Anybody have the new WRF-GFS?

[NWbyNW]

Here it comes, starting to appear on radar.  Snohomish County line northward, expect 1-3 inches of snow.  South of the Snohomish County line, expect sleet and raining ice before conditions switch to rain mid-morning to afternoon depending on location.  The ice rain currently is on track for King County, southward to Portland and Salem.  This is further compounded with strong winds that will especially hit the Portland metro.

 

[MossMan]

The way the sky looks right now if there was no such thing as weather models or forecasting I would be super excited thinking I would be getting a bunch more snow with how cold it is. I want to move to a colder/snowier climate so badly. Perhaps once the kids are grown and out of the house. I will still be young and in my 60’s by then lol. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The way the sky looks right now if there was no such thing as weather models or forecasting I would be super excited thinking I would be getting a bunch more snow with how cold it is. I want to move to a colder/snowier climate so badly. Perhaps once the kids are grown and out of the house. I will still be young and in my 60’s by then lol. 

Life is never over until it's over and every moment of it is precious, good and bad.

Still tho I hope I just stop aging at 25

[TT-SEA]

Per the 18Z ECMWF... the 850mb and 925mb temps won't support snow in the Seattle area after about 4 a.m.   But it could be too a little too fast with the upper level warming.     And verbatim... the 18Z ECMWF shows the freezing threat ends by late morning when the temps climbs into the 32-34 degree range.    So taking the ECMWF at face value... the window for freezing rain is pretty short in the Seattle area.   It looks like from about 4-10 a.m. 

But of course no model ever gets these transitions perfectly right.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

27F with a glaze of freezing rain so far.

[Meatyorologist]

A 23/18 day at KSEA. If that high holds, it will be the coldest high temperature since 12/29/1990!

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

27F with a glaze of freezing rain so far.

This may be the most disgusting way to break your streak.

You won't have to wait another 6 years after this, I promise. Maybe not even 6 weeks... 

And it'll come with epic COLD and SNOW

[MossMan]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

This may be the most disgusting way to break your streak.

You won't have to wait another 6 years after this, I promise. Maybe not even 6 weeks... 

And it'll come with epic COLD and SNOW

I am keeping strong hope alive for the second half of January! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A 23/18 day at KSEA. If that high holds, it will be the coldest high temperature since 12/29/1990!

Good news is that the ECMWF says it should be 21 in Seattle at 4 p.m.

If its runs a couple degrees too cold tomorrow then we won't have much of an ice issue.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Good news is that the ECMWF says it should be 21 in Seattle at 4 p.m.

If its runs a couple degrees too cold tomorrow then we won't have much of an ice issue.

Why does the sick and twisted part of me want to see Seattle completely paralyzed by thick ice? There is something wrong with me. 

[RayRay]

How many roads are going to shut down tomorrow morning in the greater Seattle area? Is driving to the Snoqualmie pass going to be difficult? The passes could be closed for two days with all that heavy snow and freezing rain on Friday and Saturday…

[TacomaWx]

Mike said in his video models can over do the cold air scouring it could possibly last a few hours longer Friday which is what I’m thinking. Really hope my boss doesn’t want us to work tomorrow might call out sick if he does

[Meatyorologist]

KSEA was running a 23F high on 12/27/2021 until it spiked to 27F for no discernable reason just before midnight. Definitely airplane exhaust. Glad we're not even waiting a full year to have another shot at it... And this time the airfield and its pesky 900F exhaust will be downstream of the KSEA obs site due to easterlies

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Per the 18Z ECMWF... the 850mb and 925mb temps won't support snow in the Seattle area after about 4 a.m.   But it could be too a little too fast with the upper level warming.     And verbatim... the 18Z ECMWF shows the freezing threat ends by late morning when the temps climbs into the 32-34 degree range.    So taking the ECMWF at face value... the window for freezing rain is pretty short in the Seattle area.   It looks like from about 4-10 a.m. 

But of course no model ever gets these transitions perfectly right.

Yeah but it's the 18z

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A 23/18 day at KSEA. If that high holds, it will be the coldest high temperature since 12/29/1990!

Looks like PDX will be stuck at 25/21 for the day. 2/2014, 12/2008, 1/2004, 12/1998, and 1/1996 had colder highs since 1990 but still impressive.