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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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A couple interesting things here... currently -11 and the low tonight will be -8.   Makes sense!   And they have a blizzard warning with no snow expected over the next 3 days.     They are referring to it as a ground blizzard.

msp1.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Are the models showing a strong southerly push at the surface?

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

KSEA was running a 23F high on 12/27/2021 until it spiked to 27F for no discernable reason just before midnight. Definitely airplane exhaust. Glad we're not even waiting a full year to have another shot at it... And this time the airfield and its pesky 900F exhaust will be downstream of the KSEA obs site due to easterlies 😈😂

He isn't an actual meteorologist is he?? Just some guy on the interweb right?? I don't think his forecast holds any more water than mine or yours.

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

KSEA was running a 23F high on 12/27/2021 until it spiked to 27F for no discernable reason just before midnight. Definitely airplane exhaust. Glad we're not even waiting a full year to have another shot at it... And this time the airfield and its pesky 900F exhaust will be downstream of the KSEA obs site due to easterlies 😈😂

FWIW... the ECMWF shows it is 21 at SEA at 4 p.m. and will be 26 at midnight.   So not sure temps are going to drop this evening.

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Are the models showing a strong southerly push at the surface?

ECMWF shows a south wind through the Puget Sound by early afternoon tomorrow.   That would be effective at cutting off the cold air supply.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-1832800.png

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows a south wind through the Puget Sound by early afternoon tomorrow.   That would be effective at cutting off the cold air supply.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-1832800.png

But the southerlies only arrive into the area by overcoming the cold offshore flow hugging the surface. If it is too aggressive with mixing out those surface easterlies, a transition to southerly flow may be delayed entirely.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

KSEA was running a 23F high on 12/27/2021 until it spiked to 27F for no discernable reason just before midnight. Definitely airplane exhaust. Glad we're not even waiting a full year to have another shot at it... And this time the airfield and its pesky 900F exhaust will be downstream of the KSEA obs site due to easterlies 😈😂

NO... RICH MARRIOTT YAWNED OUTSIDE.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows a south wind through the Puget Sound by early afternoon tomorrow.   That would be effective at cutting off the cold air supply.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-1832800.png

Definitely not a strong enough southerly push down here-- I'd think we hold on to cold air until Saturday at least.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

*ECMWF runs 8F too warm*

Tim: "This should not affect the ultimate outcome of this snow event."

*ECMWF runs 2F too cool*

Tim: "Winter is fuckking over. Pack your bathing suits boys, we're boating on Lake Sammamish 😎"

I am saying the same thing now about tomorrow... I have no idea if the current difference between the ECMWF and reality will be beneficial tomorrow in terms of ending the freezing rain threat earlier.   But it is 2 degrees colder than reality right now.  That is just a factual report.  

And yes... I was thinking about how glad I am about winterizing our boat right now.   Lake Sammamish will be waiting when the warm season arrives!  

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

But the southerlies only arrive into the area by overcoming the cold offshore flow hugging the surface. If it is too aggressive with mixing out those surface easterlies, a transition to southerly flow may be delayed entirely.

That weak southerly flow in the willamette valley isn’t going to get it done. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Probably not. Just said that because people always say that about the 18z GFS. But for some reason never the Euro.

 

18Z ECMWF does not seem to have strange jumps... but it only goes out to 90 hours so its just for refining short term details.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

But the southerlies only arrive into the area by overcoming the cold offshore flow hugging the surface. If it is too aggressive with mixing out those surface easterlies, a transition to southerly flow may be delayed entirely.

Totally agree... I don't trust any model that shows it warming up fast.   It never works out that way.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

NO... RICH MARRIOTT YAWNED OUTSIDE.

"Authorities apprehended Marriott at SeaTac airport early Friday morning after he was found climbing the observation tower with a blowtorch."

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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The past few days have been chillllly.

Sun: 33/28, Mon: 37/29, Tues: 29/19, Wed: 26/17 thus far. Sitting at 25.5 currently.

 

Goddamnit. SEA is reporting 25 on inter-hourlies. That means 24 at least. Ugh.

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2022-23 Winter:

11/29: .25" + 1" = 1.25" | 11/30: .25"

12/2: .2" + .5" = .7" | 12/3: .2" | 12/4: trace

12/18: .4" | 12/19: .2" + .8" = 1.0" | 12/20: .2 + 1.5" = 1.7

1/31: trace | 2/14: trace | 2/22: .2 | 2/26: 1.0"

Total: 6.7"

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Guest hawkstwelve
3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Totally agree... I don't trust any model that shows it warming up fast.   It never works out that way.

One of those few things that I agree on you with. In the four years that I have been back, every transition has been way too aggressive in how it mixes as the surface. Just this last February, we were supposed to mix out overnight, but we had easterlies and saw snow until the evening, changing to sleet and to rain. Warm air advection almost always seems to be overplayed on this side of the Rockies.

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19 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Mike said in his video models can over do the cold air scouring it could possibly last a few hours longer Friday which is what I’m thinking. Really hope my boss doesn’t want us to work tomorrow might call out sick if he does🥶

That's an unfortunate work schedule... no Christmas Eve (Friday as a placeholder) off? 

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3 minutes ago, Seattle said:

The past few days have been chillllly.

Sun: 33/28, Mon: 37/29, Tues: 29/19, Wed: 26/17 thus far. Sitting at 25.5 currently.

 

Goddamnit. SEA is reporting 25 on inter-hourlies. That means 24 at least. Ugh.

Yeah we'll be waiting a while longer. Sad.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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33 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The way the sky looks right now if there was no such thing as weather models or forecasting I would be super excited thinking I would be getting a bunch more snow with how cold it is. I want to move to a colder/snowier climate so badly. Perhaps once the kids are grown and out of the house. I will still be young and in my 60’s by then lol. 

Do it, you won't regret it!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Guest hawkstwelve

CleanShot 2022-12-22 at 16.45.07@2x.png

In Everett at a couple dozen feet above sea level, the most exposed sensor hit 25.5º while the shaded sensor only topped out at 23.9º. Starting to see the humidity inch up and the occasional gust out of the east.

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Only topped put at 19 here today. Honestly a little disappointing though, considering Boise is at over 2,700 feet. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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3 minutes ago, Forum Admin said:

One of those few things that I agree on you with. In the four years that I have been back, every transition has been way too aggressive in how it mixes as the surface. Just this last February, we were supposed to mix out overnight, but we had easterlies and saw snow until the evening, changing to sleet and to rain. Warm air advection almost always seems to be overplayed on this side of the Rockies.

So all of my analysis is always wrong except for this one thing?    Damnit.   

You also agreed with me about the beauty of those humid summer nights back east with distant lightning and fireflies and a cold beer on the deck. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

"Authorities apprehended Marriott at SeaTac airport early Friday morning after he was found climbing the observation tower with a blowtorch."

Me and MossMan started all this Marriott bullshit a few years back. It has begun to take off lol. It's because we have nightmares of his warm forecast growing up around here. I would never watch channel 5 because it depressed me.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Straight ZR in this spot in the coast range. 

image.thumb.png.d59112843f5c23cc446325a176c1969e.png

Ughhh, I'm honestly getting a little ptsd with this coming in for you guys. We had some really horrible icing experiences living near the top of the west hills and that was just for a few years.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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