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PNW December 2022 - Part II


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  • Staff
3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Dead calm here, not even a breeze.

I think you are in the eye of the storm... be careful and continue to shelter in place!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just checked Snoqualmie Falls... no snow there in February 1995.   Looks like 3 cold days in an otherwise fairly warm month otherwise.   And it was wetter than normal.    It was nothing like February 2019.

There was a snowstorm for the Kitsap Peninsula though

https://products.kitsapsun.com/archive/1995/02-13/304128_west_sound_weather__winter_hits.html

https://products.kitsapsun.com/archive/1995/02-15/304082_winter_storm__one_more_time.html

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  • Longtimer

2019 was very wet down here at least. Maybe it was not up north. We had about 13" of precip, average in February is 9". 

February 1995 was an extremely warm month. I believe it was the warmest on record at PDX until 2016. Ridging sat over us at the beginning of the month, we had a week of sunny weather with highs near 60. Then the ridge retrograded, arctic air surged south and we had a 3 day cold snap. A low spun up off the mouth of the Columbia with the arctic front and slowly dropped south bringing significant snow to PDX and the Willamette Valley. An overrunning event was forecast for the night of Valentine's, but the low went north bringing a southerly surge, a couple days later there was an AR event and highs in the mid-60s. 

  • Like 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

3E48141E-F88C-44BE-8EEC-01431AC8B000.gif

That is ABSURD

Chris is not in the eye of the storm! 

How is that storm moving in that direction going to bring wind to Seattle?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Chris is not in the eye of the storm! 

How is that storm moving in that direction going to bring wind to Seattle?

Holy crap. We're screwed. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am starting to get February 2019 type vibes about the period beginning in late January. It seems like models are in lock step that is our next chance, and the potential appears to be off the charts. The next few weeks might be a little boring around here, but we should continue to see some rain and stack up the mountain snow. The rain being shown for California during this upcoming period would be a blessing from the GODS. 

Feeling this too 

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  • Longtimer

At SLE February 1995 was very warm and dry overall, only 9 days with measurable precip. Over half the precip that month fell on one day when they recorded 2.64" on the 17th. They also had 7 60+ days. 

They officially recorded 3.1" of snow with the arctic event, had a 30/25 day on the 13th and 36/18 on Valentine's Day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

3E48141E-F88C-44BE-8EEC-01431AC8B000.gif

That is ABSURD

If only we had arctic air to work with that thing is about to make landfall in the sweet spot.

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2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 14.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 43

Sub-40 highs - 16

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Chris is not in the eye of the storm! 

How is that storm moving in that direction going to bring wind to Seattle?

The NWS and all the news talking heads seem to believe it is going to start moving north towards Forks 👀....  Looks like it is on a straight easterly path to me.

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  • Staff
4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

It's not. No models have wind for Seattle anymore, I don't know why people are in denial.

ECMWF still shows gusts to 50 mph around King County... it must be related to the open trough that follows the actual storm which is why it doesn't happen until later this evening.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-gust_swath_mph-2272000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Is there another low we can't see...??

Main topic today is how windy will it get later today. Surface low
weakening currently near about 47.6N and 128W. The low will slowly
move east today reaching Cape Flattery around 18z moving into the
Northwest Interior 00z-03z. 
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  • Longtimer

February 1995 was even more of a blow torch for EUG. They also had 3" of snow with the arctic front and a 30/27 day on the 13th, but ended up hitting 72 on the 19th and 71 on the 23rd!!! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Is there another low we can't see...??


Main topic today is how windy will it get later today. Surface low
weakening currently near about 47.6N and 128W. The low will slowly
move east today reaching Cape Flattery around 18z moving into the
Northwest Interior 00z-03z. 

Might be kind of stretched out like on UW-WRF-GFSxslp.05.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.ByOyQj16AN.webp

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  • Longtimer
12 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Well high wind warning is definitely a bust, especially for me in Bothell.

It’s not forecasted to happen until later today. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Might be kind of stretched out like on UW-WRF-GFSxslp.05.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.ByOyQj16AN.webp

The way it is barrelling straight east towards NW Oregon makes it hard to believe it will somehow kinda sorta end up where that map shows it.  Even if it stretches out.

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  • Longtimer
Just now, GHweatherChris said:

The way it is barrelling straight east towards NW Oregon makes it hard to believe it will somehow kinda sorta end up where that map shows it.  Even if it stretches out.

It’s over. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer

All of the damage and power outages in Corvallis happened in a very short period at 4 am.  Winds are now much lighter by comparison.  SSE winds can surface here much more easily than SW.

Peak gust at my sheltered station of 33 mph is the highest so far in this location (since 2016).

Peak winds corresponded with a brief but rapid pressure rise from the lowest point (29.03") and a sudden temperature drop albeit only slightly more than a degree.  Not much rain happening at the time.

What sort of phenomenon would this be?  Passage of occluded front mixing winds briefly to the surface?

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2019 was very wet down here at least. Maybe it was not up north. We had about 13" of precip, average in February is 9". 

February 1995 was an extremely warm month. I believe it was the warmest on record at PDX until 2016. Ridging sat over us at the beginning of the month, we had a week of sunny weather with highs near 60. Then the ridge retrograded, arctic air surged south and we had a 3 day cold snap. A low spun up off the mouth of the Columbia with the arctic front and slowly dropped south bringing significant snow to PDX and the Willamette Valley. An overrunning event was forecast for the night of Valentine's, but the low went north bringing a southerly surge, a couple days later there was an AR event and highs in the mid-60s. 

Eugene went from a high of 30F on the 13th to a high of 72F on the 19th. Some serious whiplash.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sun is out!  

Not here. Heavy drizzle and blustery right now. Up to .69” on the day. 47 degrees. 

C4C3C17E-1790-47A2-8F7B-F988C68B6182.jpeg

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer

Very wet day. I haven't seen the sun since I got back from Oklahoma a week ago. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I thought it was 2 lows. Something about a scorpion tail with the occluded front from the two lows.

 

It's coming.

I believe that feature is moving onshore soon-- that'll tighten the pressure gradient inland 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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  • Longtimer

Heavy snow now at Tombstone Pass (Hwy 20 4200') and Santiam Junction (3700'). Both spots had rain about 45 minutes ago. Still just rain at Government Camp, because of the low placement the colder air aloft is punching in quicker, further south. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, luterra said:

All of the damage and power outages in Corvallis happened in a very short period at 4 am.  Winds are now much lighter by comparison.  SSE winds can surface here much more easily than SW.

Peak gust at my sheltered station of 33 mph is the highest so far in this location (since 2016).

Peak winds corresponded with a brief but rapid pressure rise from the lowest point (29.03") and a sudden temperature drop albeit only slightly more than a degree.  Not much rain happening at the time.

What sort of phenomenon would this be?  Passage of occluded front mixing winds briefly to the surface?

Sounds like a satellite front which maximized mixing. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Chris is not in the eye of the storm! 

How is that storm moving in that direction going to bring wind to Seattle?

Just a surface low. The disturbance is not vertically stacked, the upper level low is what is driving the sharp pressure rises this evening as it ejects this current offshore lobe to the NNE.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, luterra said:

All of the damage and power outages in Corvallis happened in a very short period at 4 am.  Winds are now much lighter by comparison.  SSE winds can surface here much more easily than SW.

Peak gust at my sheltered station of 33 mph is the highest so far in this location (since 2016).

Peak winds corresponded with a brief but rapid pressure rise from the lowest point (29.03") and a sudden temperature drop albeit only slightly more than a degree.  Not much rain happening at the time.

What sort of phenomenon would this be?  Passage of occluded front mixing winds briefly to the surface?

It also appears that the strongest winds were WSW amidst southerly gusts on either side.

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Probably some of the worst (if not the worst) tidal flooding on record in La Conner. Looks like storm surge was 2-3’ based on the tidal stations.

C5138374-44E1-4C61-BD6C-42D3EDF8C278.thumb.jpeg.dbed0d8d4d6afdeae17e0414712b558a.jpeg4433C21E-EF6E-453E-9EA6-3F356908FB27.thumb.jpeg.0ed07d0e20d874545a994c9847e7d2ce.jpeg89D76706-44D9-439E-A955-11349DD83565.thumb.jpeg.648e933999b12e6acc78d4f7cc10c856.jpeg6B12A550-D426-4CF5-A35C-7CFE8B6D2291.thumb.jpeg.71fd207ca3f53c15fd0850d4c2ca4172.jpeg

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: 9.25" (12/18: 0.75", 12/19: 2.5", 12/20: 6"; Trace: 11/7, 12/2, 12/21; Flakes: 11/29, 11/30, 12/1)

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 Currently 51.7 and at 0.43” of rain so far today. With how far south this low is going it is making me question if the Seattle area is going to see strong winds at all.

2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 14.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 43

Sub-40 highs - 16

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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  • Longtimer

From Michael Trofimov on FB

May be an image of map, sky and text that says '215 BZ 89 84 eattle 74 aco Shelton Aberdeen Olympia South Bend Centralia 39 Astoria Cathlamet 34 Longview Saint Helens 19 Xancouver illamook Goldend City Dalles Oregon C”ty Bent Back Oclusion (nget) McMi nville Dallas Salem Newport Albany Madras'

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

PGE currently has 81,000 customers in the dark. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It's really breezy here. Probly was the windiest it has been just a few mins ago.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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These big old fir trees in the Washburne district are really swaying.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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