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PNW December 2022 - Part II


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Decent storm-- Three Corner RAWS gusting to 104 from the SW is pretty intense.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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5 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

KSEA NWS needs to drop the HWW for the central sound, no way those #'s come close to verifying.

This is now the third bust by NWS KSEA since Thanksgiving 

They really fu** ed up bad on this storm, especially Tacoma to Everett. It's embarrassing.

 

Patience!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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5 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

KSEA NWS needs to drop the HWW for the central sound, no way those #'s come close to verifying.

This is now the third bust by NWS KSEA since Thanksgiving 

They really fu** ed up bad on this storm, especially Tacoma to Everett. It's embarrassing.

 

They actually just increased the maximum gusts to 60 MPH on the latest warning.  Getting breezier here. 581473127_ScreenShot2022-12-27at3_17_24PM.png.ceec60783fcbcdc72a9ffcdb49b8d54f.png

I find it interesting that the point forecast for my location only calls for gusts to 39. This is often the case where the wind speeds/precip amounts in a warning message does not match the point forecast for the location. 

image.png.1c439d536e7c86d8a6a1082c6a5cd272.png

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9 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

KSEA NWS needs to drop the HWW for the central sound, no way those #'s come close to verifying.

This is now the third bust by NWS KSEA since Thanksgiving 

They really fu** ed up bad on this storm, especially Tacoma to Everett. It's embarrassing.

 

Still dead calm in Kent, winds supposed to peak around 7pm. If it doesn't pick up in the next couple of hours, I'd say for sure another bust.

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The winds are not coming from the storm that passed to the south... the wind in Seattle will come this evening with the trough passage and arrival of cold air aloft.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The winds are not coming from the storm that passed to the south... the wind in Seattle will come this evening with the trough passage and arrival of cold air aloft.  

Dude, even NCEP/WPC f***ed up on this. 

The main low was forecast to move ashore just north of La Push, instead we have a shitty surface low near Astoria and degraded upper low north of Neah Bay. I don't see sustained 40 mph w/gusts to 55mph in the central sound from an upper trough passage.

The bent back occlusion is even weaker.

This is yet another fail in as many weeks by SEW for a storm that IMHO, won't really amount to much for anyone between Marysville and Tumwater. 

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20 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

They actually just increased the maximum gusts to 60 MPH on the latest warning.  Getting breezier here. 581473127_ScreenShot2022-12-27at3_17_24PM.png.ceec60783fcbcdc72a9ffcdb49b8d54f.png

I find it interesting that the point forecast for my location only calls for gusts to 39. This is often the case where the wind speeds/precip amounts in a warning message does not match the point forecast for the location. 

image.png.1c439d536e7c86d8a6a1082c6a5cd272.png

I ain't buying what they're selling. 

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25 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

They actually just increased the maximum gusts to 60 MPH on the latest warning.  Getting breezier here. 581473127_ScreenShot2022-12-27at3_17_24PM.png.ceec60783fcbcdc72a9ffcdb49b8d54f.png

I find it interesting that the point forecast for my location only calls for gusts to 39. This is often the case where the wind speeds/precip amounts in a warning message does not match the point forecast for the location. 

image.png.1c439d536e7c86d8a6a1082c6a5cd272.png

That happens for every windstorm around here.

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12 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

Dude, even NCEP/WPC f***ed up on this. 

The main low was forecast to move ashore just north of La Push, instead we have a shitty surface low near Astoria and degraded upper low north of Neah Bay. I don't see sustained 40 mph w/gusts to 55mph in the central sound from an upper trough passage.

The bent back occlusion is even weaker.

This is yet another fail in as many weeks by SEW for a storm that IMHO, won't really amount to much for anyone between Marysville and Tumwater. 

The southern low that is so well-defined on radar is a surface low and was never predicted to bring big wind to the Puget Sound corridor, even though it looks impressive. That wad the wind for OR.  The upper level low that has yet to come ashore and should be coming in to the north near southern Vancouver Island seems delayed. It is the one that was (is?) going to bring wind to Puget Sound. 

Also JAYA said it is a weird one and he hadn't seen anything like it in 30 years of experience. Not our typical wind maker. He said to watch gradients rather than models or radar because it is so unusual.

Hard to pin this on NWS folks when retired guy says he doesn't have experience with this either.

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Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

That happens for every windstorm around here.

Theoretically the point forecast should take into account sheltering from topography and be more accurate, but I'm not sure how a point forecast is generated or what it represents. If I want to get the "NWS forecast for my location", I never know whether I should be looking at zone, point, hourly, AFD, or warning messages. Seems like another case of bureaucracy obscuring the truth and hedging their bets. If one forecast busts, they can always point to another one of their products. In my opinion, they should have a unified forecast message that they stand behind and communicate unambiguously. 

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5 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

The southern low that is so well-defined on radar is a surface low and was never predicted to bring big wind to the Puget Sound corridor, even though it looks impressive. That wad the wind for OR.  The upper level low that has yet to come ashore and should be coming in to the north near southern Vancouver Island seems delayed. It is the one that was (is?) going to bring wind to Puget Sound. 

Also JAYA said it is a weird one and he hadn't seen anything like it in 30 years of experience. Not our typical wind maker. He said to watch gradients rather than models or radar because it is so unusual.

Hard to pin this on NWS folks when retired guy says he doesn't have experience with this either.

A low pressure missing us to our south is unheard of?

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2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

A low pressure missing us to our south is unheard of?

No. The particular set up of a developing surface low to the south and the mature upper level low to the north. Their interaction with the occluded front has made forecasting the particular details difficult. It's about how these two lows at different levels are interacting that they aren't exactly sure what is going to occur. They haven't seen it play out before. 

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41 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

The NWS has a point forecast, a zone forecast, an hourly graphical forecast, and sometimes a warning message forecast. None of these forecasts ever match each other. 

Point forecasts here are awful sometimes.  I've seen a forecast of 53 degrees where it ended up at 39 and then the next week it said rain and 43.  We had a WSW in the zone forecast, which was right.  Had a high of 28.  

In winter they are usually too warm by 5+ degrees, and have areas that are almost always warmer than us as being cooler.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

The surf has crossed the  breakers at Westport!  Truly impressive storm watching from their live camera!  The road leading out to the spit is completely covered in water and people are still driving it! 

1509241964_ScreenRecording2022-12-27at3_50_26PM.mov

got to westport about 11...very little wind. drove down to tokeland and wind really started whipping up. got back to westport and it was howling. was on the tower and could barely stand straight up. incredible.

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This wind event is turning into a nothing burger for the Puget Sound so far.  Models are showing it hasn't lived up to it's modeled potential at this time.   The strongest gust I can find so far is at Edmonds where it gusted too 29mph.   Sustained wind varies from single digits in the South Sound, to a little over 10mph in Snohomish County then drops to single digits in Skagit and Whatcom Counties. 

The storm did successfully wallop Oregon.  About 110,000 without power, and the coast got bopped.  The Washington Coast is now getting bopped, but inland, it has been a no-show so far. 

Screen Shot 2022-12-27 at 4.11.14 PM.png

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4 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

And I fully admit I may be synthesisizing info incorrectly or may have missed something. But this does seem to be a complicated forecast and not something I am going to be pissed about as a "bust." People have had trees through their houses in OR. 

seems to be the move to either live at the coast for big windstorms or out east for big snowstorms 😭

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One of the resorts in Westport has a camera pointed to the Pacific!  Looking at the massive swells is amazing how powerful nature is!  I mean look at the size of those waves with 50mph winds blowing in the cameras face!  

 

Two other webcams we see two diff thing.  First one, things have calmed significantly as seen by the Newport, Oregon marina cam.  It is wet, misty, and foggy now with occasional gusts, but the worst is over for them.

newport1.thumb.jpg.00ea8f42734f8a2f4db8d70f24e8f810.jpg

 

Currently holding the strongest wind gust in the Puget Sound at 29mph we have this camera at the Port of Edmonds.  We can see perfectly with this camera the darkness of the clouds rolling in from the south and towards the west.  It's going to get dark and much rainier. 

cam.thumb.jpg.e3bf2f8061a568d867f034fffcde2913.jpg

 

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The gust to 104 at Three Corner Rock sounds kind of noteworthy today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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22 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

And I fully admit I may be synthesisizing info incorrectly or may have missed something. But this does seem to be a complicated forecast and not something I am going to be pissed about as a "bust." People have had trees through their houses in OR. 

But wind is so fun!!! 🥰

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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18 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

seems to be the move to either live at the coast for big windstorms or out east for big snowstorms 😭

We can get both here.  Just last winter we had a nice snowfall, and some places have already this season as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't find cold to be very fun either!    Snow and 28-31 degrees is fun though.  

Fair point.  There was something about that really cold day last week that was pretty special though.  I could see getting tired of that if the wind didn't quit.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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Something is definitely wrong with KHQM temp sensor, we had to go through Hoquiam today and drove out by the airport and my trucks temp sensor was showing 57-58 when KHQM was showing 70-72 just after 1 today.  Only got up to 52 here at home, temp down to 42 in the last 90 minutes.

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27 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

This wind event is turning into a nothing burger for the Puget Sound so far.  Models are showing it hasn't lived up to it's modeled potential at this time.   The strongest gust I can find so far is at Edmonds where it gusted too 29mph.   Sustained wind varies from single digits in the South Sound, to a little over 10mph in Snohomish County then drops to single digits in Skagit and Whatcom Counties. 

The storm did successfully wallop Oregon.  About 110,000 without power, and the coast got bopped.  The Washington Coast is now getting bopped, but inland, it has been a no-show so far. 

Screen Shot 2022-12-27 at 4.11.14 PM.png

The next few hours will get fairly impressive for the South and Central Sound.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Something is definitely wrong with KHQM temp sensor, we had to go through Hoquiam today and drove out by the airport and my trucks temp sensor was showing 57-58 when KHQM was showing 70-72 just after 1 today.  Only got up to 52 here at home, temp down to 42 in the last 90 minutes.

You are going to have an awesome summer if Hoquiam is in the low 70s in late December!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Something is definitely wrong with KHQM temp sensor, we had to go through Hoquiam today and drove out by the airport and my trucks temp sensor was showing 57-58 when KHQM was showing 70-72 just after 1 today.  Only got up to 52 here at home, temp down to 42 in the last 90 minutes.

Yup.  I'm convinced it's whacked after today.  Yesterday I wasn't so sure.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like the weekend could be mostly dry. Probably some nice AVERAGE weather. 

That's something we have had VERY little of in months.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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People who are bashing this event for the Puget Sound region need to take note of the timing shown on the models.  The peak time hasn't happened yet.  Give the track of the low I'm thinking there will be some gusts to 50 in places.  The biggest problem with this one is it has too much time to fill before it moved into the right position to really hit the Puget Sound super hard.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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