PNW December 2022 - Part II

[jakerepp]

Very wet across the PHX metro and much of AZ today.

Here's a live cam from Flagstaff...looks incredible!

 

[joelgombiner]

Looks like the NWS "point forecast" verified perfectly in terms of wind speeds, but the the hourly weather forecast and the high wind warning were too high by about 10 to 20 mph respectively. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

17 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Very wet across the PHX metro and much of AZ today.

Here's a live cam from Flagstaff...looks incredible!

 

Still just slushy rain in Santa Fe but that should change this evening after the cold front hits.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newmexico/santafe/?cam=santafe

[Snownerd3000]

30 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Very wet across the PHX metro and much of AZ today.

Here's a live cam from Flagstaff...looks incredible!

 

Lol I was JUST talking to my kids about how AZ gets snow and about Flagstaff.

[Sandy rocks]

Well that was quite a storm. Most south wind I have ever had. My power was out all day. I took a drive into town and many roads were out including 84. When I got home a found that my grandson's trampoline flew over the fence without even damaging the fence but the trampoline is toast. Fortunately no one lives behind me, only woods.

[Meatyorologist]

Got shadow'd pretty good here due to the westerly nature of the winds. Still waiting on the next big one!

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Meatyorologist]

GFS continues to look seasonably cool and active for the indefinite future. Mountain snow and windstorm chances.

[MossMan]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

GFS continues to look seasonably cool and active for the indefinite future. Mountain snow and windstorm chances.

As long as we don’t hit the split flow hell stage I am happy. Hopefully we will still see something big in late January/February. The forecasted SSW will certainly help that timeframe if it comes to be. 

[joelgombiner]

On the fringes of the most extreme cold anomalies on earth. 

[Slushy Inch]

[Slushy Inch]

Absolutely mammoth trough moving in on Euro. 

[ShawniganLake]

30 minutes ago, MossMan said:

As long as we don’t hit the split flow hell stage I am happy. Hopefully we will still see something big in late January/February. The forecasted SSW will certainly help that timeframe if it comes to be. 

Split flow hell feels pretty unlikely going forward 

[Slushy Inch]

Upper air temperatures so cold that convective snow showers are showing up on EURO, would be graupel most likely.

[TacomaWx]

If I had to rate this winter so far..it would probably get a B. That’s if it ended today and we had warm split flow until March. I’ve really enjoyed the fact we’ve hit average snowfall and had a really nice cold blast already. Not super wet…and no real signature windstorm just a couple modest ones but since early November it’s been great. If we can manage another round of snow and some sub freezing highs this would definitely be an A+ winter IMO…and I think it’ll happen. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

If I had to rate this winter so far..it would probably get a B. That’s if it ended today and we had warm split flow until March. I’ve really enjoyed the fact we’ve hit average snowfall and had a really nice cold blast already. Not super wet…and no real signature windstorm just a couple modest ones but since early November it’s been great. If we can manage another round of snow and some sub freezing highs this would definitely be an A+ winter IMO…and I think it’ll happen. 

Next ten days look very active. If we get cold later in Jan, probably an A- or B+? Kind of think we need a bigger snowstorm for an A.

[Slushy Inch]

Quite the airmass for onshore flow.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Next ten days look very active. If we get cold later in Jan, probably an A- or B+? Kind of think we need a bigger snowstorm for an A.

A bigger snow event would be nice. Max snow depth so far this winter here is only 2”. We’ve had a ton of light snowfalls that added up to 6”…but yeah getting a nice 3-6” snowstorm would be nice. We’ve gotten the Arctic blast already this winter. It’s been a really great one so far though IMO. 

[Prairiedog]

Been without power since yesterday am.  Hopefully back in later today.  I have as much debris and limbs down as I did with the ice storm.  It’s a mess.  A lot of big trees down through the area.  Don’t have time to read all the past posts but I’m sure Oregon posters have updated it all.  I’m fairly protected esp from southerlies but this was incredible.  One last big burst hit hard about 4pm.  Wind was roaring!  30 minutes of knuckle biting as we’re all (40 homes) in a lot of cedar and for along the creek.  It was a bit intimidating.  All is well.  Just might not get to see any football bowl games

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just checked out the GFS ensembles. Could be better. Could be a lot worse. Fairly close to climo, mostly on the negative side, with fairly good ensemble agreement. Currently only 38. Back to normal winter chill. 

[Timmy]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just checked out the GFS ensembles. Could be better. Could be a lot worse. Fairly close to climo, mostly on the negative side, with fairly good ensemble agreement. Currently only 38. Back to normal winter chill. 

Don’t bother posting them. Thx

[TigerWoodsLibido]

47F and mostly cloudy. 0.05" of rain since midnight and now up to 4.94" for the month.

[Kayla]

Some early signs of a jet retraction by the end of week two in the ensembles but that's about it. Pretty clear that we'll be waiting until at least the last week of January before NPAC blocking returns.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Some early signs of a jet retraction by the end of week two in the ensembles but that's about it. Pretty clear that we'll be waiting until at least the last week of January before NPAC blocking returns.

This is all going according to PLAN!

[WeatherGeek2022]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is all going according to PLAN!

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is all going according to PLAN!

I want birthday snow!

[TacomaWx]

29 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Some early signs of a jet retraction by the end of week two in the ensembles but that's about it. Pretty clear that we'll be waiting until at least the last week of January before NPAC blocking returns.

Matt’s getting worried about January. 

[ShawniganLake]

28 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Matt’s getting worried about January. 

“The first half of January in toast”

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Matt’s getting worried about January. 

He already wrote January off this morning. Possibly the rest of the winter. All because his snoopy got destroyed due to the ice.  

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

He already wrote January off this morning. Possibly the rest of the winter. All because his snoopy got destroyed due to the ice.  

Lol I also recall him writing off his December 2 remember 2021 call early that month. Might be a good sign later down the road. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And boom! Another 50F burger.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And boom! Another 50F burger.

50 burger? Seems like some low hanging fruit.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

50 burger? Seems like some low hanging fruit.

Every time I hear TWL talking about 50 burgers, a scene like the following comes to my mind:

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Five people were killed by falling trees on Oregon highways yesterday. RIP

https://www.oregonlive.com/commuting/2022/12/falling-trees-kill-4-in-car-crashes-along-us-26.html

[AlTahoe]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

As long as we don’t hit the split flow hell stage I am happy. Hopefully we will still see something big in late January/February. The forecasted SSW will certainly help that timeframe if it comes to be. 

How did you guys do in 1955-1956? This pattern coming up looks eerily similar for California

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

As long as we don’t hit the split flow hell stage I am happy. Hopefully we will still see something big in late January/February. The forecasted SSW will certainly help that timeframe if it comes to be. 

Looks like a Siberian one too. Those statistically favor the PNW... but with -ENSO any appropriate blocking will take advantage.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

How did you guys do in 1955-1956? This pattern coming up looks eerily similar for California

Pretty good. Obviously the big November arctic blast. But a good shot of cold and low elevation snow in late January (After a very benign first 25 days) and then a very cold February. One of the coldest on record regionally. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really good snow event in late January 1956. PDX had 9.5", SLE had 5.5", EUG.... 1". 

Didn't seem like much snow in February, just 1-2" at all three locations, but all 3 locations had sub-freezing highs in early and mid-February. At SLE only February 1989, 1936, and 1929 were colder. 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Matt’s getting worried about January. 

Second half is still totally fertile ground, but EPAC Cyclonefest will need a Louisville Slugger between the eyes.

On a related note, there was a discussion on Christmas Day about my daughter’s first Christmas when I had strep throat. It was disturbing that this was 2005. As a part of the discussion, it was realized that Christmas Day 2005 also fell on a Sunday…….

[AlTahoe]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty good. Obviously the big November arctic blast. But a good shot of cold and low elevation snow in late January (After a very benign first 25 days) and then a very cold February. One of the coldest on record regionally. 

Just checked here and it was a top 5 coldest Feb. 

[Snownerd3000]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

If I had to rate this winter so far..it would probably get a B. That’s if it ended today and we had warm split flow until March. I’ve really enjoyed the fact we’ve hit average snowfall and had a really nice cold blast already. Not super wet…and no real signature windstorm just a couple modest ones but since early November it’s been great. If we can manage another round of snow and some sub freezing highs this would definitely be an A+ winter IMO…and I think it’ll happen. 

The fact we're not even into January and the PS has at least had 2 bouts with snow is a huge plus.  Feel like we have at least 1 really good week of snow chances to come but could see a sneaker event or 2 based on how this winter has played out so far.

[Front Ranger]

6 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol nice to see it hasn’t snowed or got cold for a few days so it must mean winters over. 

This forum during the 1999-2005 period would have been fun.

[Deweydog]

41 minutes ago, MossMan said:

He already wrote January off this morning. Possibly the rest of the winter. All because his snoopy got destroyed due to the ice.  

He got COMPLETELY wiped out by the wind yesterday. Snoopy clearly thinks Christmas ends on Christmas.

And I’m not writing anything off, but some of the numbers put up last week will be very tough to beat. Chances of PDX having another day with an average in the low 20’s is pretty low.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I was looking at the forecast for the next week in Toronto. That's the sort of stuff I'd expect from a Vancouver or Seattle forecast at this time of year:

Here's Vancouver to compare:

Pacific air is dominating the continent.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This forum during the 1999-2005 period would have been fun.

Late December 2003 into the New Year would have been fun. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

He got COMPLETELY wiped out by the wind yesterday. Snoopy clearly thinks Christmas ends on Christmas.

And I’m not writing anything off, but some of the numbers put up last week will be very tough to beat. Chances of PDX having another day with an average in the low 20’s is pretty low.

Yeah we had a high of 25 which is very rare. Would need something pretty top tier to knock that from the coldest max of the winter. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah we had a high of 25 which is very rare. Would need something pretty top tier to knock that from the coldest max of the winter. 

When was the last time you had a daily max that low?

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

When was the last time you had a daily max that low?

24 degrees on December 27th last year. Before that though? November 2010.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver Falls stats were posted on the Utah State Climate site. Looks like their last 50+ high was November 5th (Before last Saturday.). 

I mentioned before it came in as their 2nd coldest November (1938-present), behind 1985. 23 sub-freezing lows, 12 sub-40 highs. 3 daily record min max's on the 7-9th. 

34/31 on the 7th

35/23 on the 19th

35/32 on the 29th. 

 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Next month's title is going to be "February 2023 Preseason", right? Since we all know there's no point in a January thread?