PNW December 2022 - Part II

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Next month's title is going to be "February 2023 Preseason", right? Since we all know there's no point in a January thread?

February is the new clutch month.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 45.9. I will say it’s been kind of nice the last few days when I go away for a few hours not to have to catch up on 5+ new pages . I do have a feeling the next time we get an arctic blast this winter if it happens it will be warmer temps but more snow. For me I will gladly take more moisture for warmer temps as long as they are still cold enough to support snow!

[AlTahoe]

Hmm looks like it may snow here in the next two weeks. 

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, joelgombiner said:

On the fringes of the most extreme cold anomalies on earth. 

Pretty impressive how much of the NH land masses have been cold.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Next month's title is going to be "February 2023 Preseason", right? Since we all know there's no point in a January thread?

January belongs to Team Pineapple now.

[MWG]

Currently 48F and we have Wind Advisory but it will be for toward the south end of the Rogue Valley which are the towns of Phoenix, Talent and Ashland. 
Lovely day! 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

He got COMPLETELY wiped out by the wind yesterday. Snoopy clearly thinks Christmas ends on Christmas.

And I’m not writing anything off, but some of the numbers put up last week will be very tough to beat. Chances of PDX having another day with an average in the low 20’s is pretty low.

Yep. I never wrote anything off either.  I’m sure there could be some snow chances and even some arctic air.  But a lot of places in the PNW already saw some pretty high end stuff.  Just not a lot of snow in the higher population centers down south. 

[Requiem]

Phew, power back after 30 hours or so-- definitely the most I've spent without power from a wind event since 2014. 

[Chris]

4 hours ago, MossMan said:

As long as we don’t hit the split flow hell stage I am happy. Hopefully we will still see something big in late January/February. The forecasted SSW will certainly help that timeframe if it comes to be. 

There's a SSW forecasted?  When?

[Chris]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Second half is still totally fertile ground, but EPAC Cyclonefest will need a Louisville Slugger between the eyes.

On a related note, there was a discussion on Christmas Day about my daughter’s first Christmas when I had strep throat. It was disturbing that this was 2005. As a part of the discussion, it was realized that Christmas Day 2005 also fell on a Sunday…….

With a suppressed jet pushing storms into California, I wouldn't rule out yet a low to our south pulling in cold air from the northeast.

[Omegaraptor]

9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very wet for California. 

For some parts of the Sacramento Valley... that's half the annual average precipitation in 16 days.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Euro is even more ridiculous considering this is 10 days. Note that the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta area gets about as much annual precipitation as Sisters and Bend do!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 hours ago, MossMan said:

As long as we don’t hit the split flow hell stage I am happy. Hopefully we will still see something big in late January/February. The forecasted SSW will certainly help that timeframe if it comes to be. 

Be careful what you wish for.  I think most SSW events get the East cold, not the west.  February 2019 an obvious exception.  Besides, the PNW got pretty darn cold without one recently.  

And it may depend on if it's a Siberian event or North Atlantic event (do you know where it is forecasted to be?).

I get the potential though.  Nina years often have North Pacific ridging late January and into February, which would be a nice setup if there is a SSW event 

Good article about it here.  It's an older article, but relevant for the PNW.

https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/01/05/will-sudden-stratospheric-warming-lead-to-an-arctic-cold-blast-in-late-

 

[NWbyNW]

The King Tides have been pretty amazing this past week.  I went to go look at some of the aftermath myself and it's shocking how high the tides got.

 

On a different note, we actually still have power outages still.  The most in the country are still in Oregon. The majority is still around Portland with over 15,000 in Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill Counties without power still.  Tillamook County took the brunt of the wind storm and there hasn't been much progress.  Still over 10,000 without power in the county.  Clatsop who had a ton of outages have pretty much gotten everyone back online.  Strangely in southern Oregon, we still have over 3,000 without power in Josephine County.  Strangely the coastal southern Oregon counties don't seem to have people without power, but this inland county does.  KOBI-TV 5 from Medford is reporting the outages were due to the storm and trees knocking out power.  They also report at one time, there were over 55,000 without power in Southern Oregon. 

 

For Washington, King County is the hotbed because as reported last night, the Snoqualmie area is without power and remains without power, STILL.  We're coming up on 24hrs soon.  Roughly 15,000 effected. 

[RentonHill]

Nice warm (36!) evening and sunset in the methow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be worse. 

[HuskyMaestro]

Not my pic but this is from 2 years ago in Japan after a late snowstorm, what I would give to experience UW's cherry blossoms during peak bloom with snowfall around here. The aesthetic even has a dedicated name for it called hanabie or "flower chilling", the phenomenon of flowers blooming during bitter cold. Something incredibly serene and calming to see the pink hues mix in with the white glow of snow. It'll be on the bucket list to experience snowy Japanese winters and springs one day.

[TacomaWx]

44/40 today. Nice to be out of the torching period the last few days…but it was our only above normal period over the last 2 months or so. 
 we’re still -2.6 MTD…December 2021 finished at -2.1 so we will probably end up just slightly colder than last December. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

January belongs to Team Pineapple now.

Saw someone on Twitter call it the Mango Express.   Something about the water vapor going all the way across the Pacific to the Philippines instead of originating near Hawai'i. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

26 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Not my pic but this is from 2 years ago in Japan after a late snowstorm, what I would give to experience UW's cherry blossoms during peak bloom with snowfall around here. The aesthetic even has a dedicated name for it called hanabie or "flower chilling", the phenomenon of flowers blooming during bitter cold. Something incredibly serene and calming to see the pink hues mix in with the white glow of snow. It'll be on the bucket list to experience snowy Japanese winters and springs one day.

Ooh, something to add to my weather bucket list. This is beautiful!

Like the frazil ice in Yosemite that I missed by just a couple of hours a few years ago. There were remnants at the stream edge but we weren't staying in the Valley and got hung up with some car trouble and then the line to get in. Some day!

[Terreboner]

54 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could be worse. 

Somewhat of a split flow next week but could easily spin up a surface low this time of year.  I think any time after the new year bears watching for low snow levels.

[Mr Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Nice warm (36!) evening and sunset in the methow

What's a methow?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

40/36 today.

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What's a methow?

It’s kind of like a luau but with meth. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

28 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What's a methow?

Good question, so I looked it up on Wikipedia 

The Methow (/ˈmɛthaʊ/ MET-how) are a Native American tribe that lived along the Methow River, a tributary of the Columbia River in northern Washington.^[1] The river's English name is taken from that of the tribe. The name "Methow" comes from the Okanagan placename /mətxʷú/, meaning "sunflower (seeds)". The tribe's name for the river was Buttlemuleemauch, meaning "salmon falls river".^[

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, Chris said:

There's a SSW forecasted?  When?

Early to mid January I think? 

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Be careful what you wish for.  I think most SSW events get the East cold, not the west.  February 2019 an obvious exception.  Besides, the PNW got pretty darn cold without one recently.  

And it may depend on if it's a Siberian event or North Atlantic event (do you know where it is forecasted to be?).

I get the potential though.  Nina years often have North Pacific ridging late January and into February, which would be a nice setup if there is a SSW event 

Good article about it here.  It's an older article, but relevant for the PNW.

https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/01/05/will-sudden-stratospheric-warming-lead-to-an-arctic-cold-blast-in-late-

 

The February 2018  and January 2021 SSWs also led to some cold in the west.

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Be careful what you wish for.  I think most SSW events get the East cold, not the west.  February 2019 an obvious exception.  Besides, the PNW got pretty darn cold without one recently.  

And it may depend on if it's a Siberian event or North Atlantic event (do you know where it is forecasted to be?).

I get the potential though.  Nina years often have North Pacific ridging late January and into February, which would be a nice setup if there is a SSW event 

Good article about it here.  It's an older article, but relevant for the PNW.

https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/01/05/will-sudden-stratospheric-warming-lead-to-an-arctic-cold-blast-in-late-

 

Wasn’t the February 2018 event also attributed to the SSW? I know there have been at least two over the last several years that have turned us cold like clockwork 3-4 weeks after. I believe it’s a Siberian one that is forecasted which I believe is the one we want. But I am no expert. I know there was a TON of talk about the SSW in years past on the forum and how we want to see one…but is that not the case anymore? I’m so confused, think I will just stop posting anything but current conditions and pics of my muddy yard for a while since I feel like I have been giving a lot of false uneducated info lately. 

Edited December 29, 2022 by MossMan

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t the February 2018 event also attributed to the SSW? I know there have been at least two over the last several years that have turned us cold like clockwork 3-4 weeks after. I believe it’s a Siberian one that is forecasted which I believe is the one we want. But I am no expert. I know there was a TON of talk about the SSW in years past and how we want to see one…but is that not the case anymore? I’m so confused, think I will just stop posting anything but current conditions and pics of my muddy yard for a while since I feel like I have been giving a lot of false uneducated info lately. 

Either way we'll all be happy with our 20-30" of snow regionwide in late January!

[MossMan]

Currently 39 degrees.

A quiet day with only .05” in the gauge. 5.48” for the month. 
41/38 on the day. 

[Front Ranger]

Last post in this thread was almost an hour ago.

RIP winter.

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Be careful what you wish for.  I think most SSW events get the East cold, not the west.  February 2019 an obvious exception.  Besides, the PNW got pretty darn cold without one recently.  

And it may depend on if it's a Siberian event or North Atlantic event (do you know where it is forecasted to be?).

I get the potential though.  Nina years often have North Pacific ridging late January and into February, which would be a nice setup if there is a SSW event 

Good article about it here.  It's an older article, but relevant for the PNW.

https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/01/05/will-sudden-stratospheric-warming-lead-to-an-arctic-cold-blast-in-late-

 

Yeah, thanks in part to a certain mountains of Maryland poster, SSWs are a bit overhyped on this forum. If they statistically increase the odds of an Arctic outbreak in the PNW, as far as I can tell it's a small difference.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

54 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t the February 2018 event also attributed to the SSW? I know there have been at least two over the last several years that have turned us cold like clockwork 3-4 weeks after. I believe it’s a Siberian one that is forecasted which I believe is the one we want. But I am no expert. I know there was a TON of talk about the SSW in years past on the forum and how we want to see one…but is that not the case anymore? I’m so confused, think I will just stop posting anything but current conditions and pics of my muddy yard for a while since I feel like I have been giving a lot of false uneducated info lately. 

The February 2019 was, did you mean that year?  It was a Nino, and during a Nino February is the least likely month to get cold and snow, but the SSW in the right location overwhelmed the Nino.  

I know Ventrice has done research into Siberian SSW events vs North Atlantic SSW events. 

[Deweydog]

54 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wasn’t the February 2018 event also attributed to the SSW? I know there have been at least two over the last several years that have turned us cold like clockwork 3-4 weeks after. I believe it’s a Siberian one that is forecasted which I believe is the one we want. But I am no expert. I know there was a TON of talk about the SSW in years past on the forum and how we want to see one…but is that not the case anymore? I’m so confused, think I will just stop posting anything but current conditions and pics of my muddy yard for a while since I feel like I have been giving a lot of false uneducated info lately. 

I’d always take my chances with a big ol’ stratospheric blast furnace. They just tend to result in pattern chaos and often very strong blocking patterns.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The February 2019 was, did you mean that year?  It was a Nino, and during a Nino February is the least likely month to get cold and snow, but the SSW in the right location overwhelmed the Nino.  

I know Ventrice has done research into Siberian SSW events vs North Atlantic SSW events. 

The cold period in late February 2018 was preceded by a pretty wicked warming episode.

[Cold Snap]

I honestly always thought that SSW’s increased odds of cold and snow around here. Don’t they usually make things more blocky?

[Cold Snap]

The little sprinkles falling into this light makes it look like there’s a bunch of little bugs flying around it.

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I honestly always thought that SSW’s increased odds of cold and snow around here. Don’t they usually make things more blocky?

In general, yes, for the very high latitudes. But much more important to PNW cold and snow is where the blocking sets up. 

SSWs increase the odds of -AO. But that doesn't necessarily increase the odds of Arctic air reaching the PNW...in fact, many of the coldest/snowiest episodes in PNW history did not feature major -AO.

[snow_wizard]

6 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

This forum during the 1999-2005 period would have been fun.

It wasn't.  There was an early version of this forum for the last part of that time frame.  Things are way better now as far as cold and snow are concerned.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I honestly always thought that SSW’s increased odds of cold and snow around here. Don’t they usually make things more blocky?

It's only a factor on some of our cold events.

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Last post in this thread was almost an hour ago.

RIP winter.

I'm still recovering from last week to some extent.  It was a wild ride.

[snow_wizard]

It appears the ensembles still like the idea of a retrogression / Pacific jet retraction as we get into January.  I think I'll go with that idea for now.  Should result in things getting into good position by the latter part of January.

In the short term both the ECMWF and GFS have been hinting at some reasonably chilly weather at times over the next 10 days and much drier by the weekend.  I'm glad the post cold wave torch was short lived.

[Cold Snap]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

In general, yes, for the very high latitudes. But much more important to PNW cold and snow is where the blocking sets up. 

SSWs increase the odds of -AO. But that doesn't necessarily increase the odds of Arctic air reaching the PNW...in fact, many of the coldest/snowiest episodes in PNW history did not feature major -AO.

That’s pretty interesting. Would you say the PNW has better odds at having an arctic blast during a weak -AO than a strong one?

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

That’s pretty interesting. Would you say the PNW has better odds at having an arctic blast during a weak -AO than a strong one?

I know that Feb 1989 was caused by a transition from super positive AO to minus AO.  The super positive phase allowed AK to get extremely cold and then the cold dumped our way when the AO flipped.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

That’s pretty interesting. Would you say the PNW has better odds at having an arctic blast during a weak -AO than a strong one?

I haven't seen any statistically significant correlation with the AO one way or the other.

I think one thing to keep in mind is you can't have blocking everywhere up north. It is definitely possible to have -AO/-NAO-/-EPO, but more often you'll have blocking in some regions but not others.

NE Pacific/Alaskan blocking is far and away the most important piece for the PNW to get cold.

[TacomaWx]

59 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Last post in this thread was almost an hour ago.

RIP winter.

A lot of it is we’ve been model riding non stop since before thanksgiving too. We finished up the first event in early December…and just a couple days later the models started looking really good again. 

[TT-SEA]

Power just came back on after 26 hours.   The Snoqualmie Valley was just pounded with this system.    It would be interesting to understand the dynamics because we are often completely missed by windstorms that hit the Puget Sound.    

I guess there was major damage to main transmission lines.   They were using helicopters today to look for damage.   

What worked in our favor this time was that most areas were not hit hard so PSE could focus all their resources out here.   In 2006 we had to wait 10 long days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bo knowZ 

[Cold Snap]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

A lot of it is we’ve been model riding non stop since before thanksgiving too. We finished up the first event in early December…and just a couple days later the models started looking really good again. 

I will say it’s definitely felt nice to have a little break from model riding. It’s nice being able to focus on other things in life instead of being glued to this forum.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

A lot of it is we’ve been model riding non stop since before thanksgiving too. We finished up the first event in early December…and just a couple days later the models started looking really good again. 

Everyone was watching the Holiday Bowl.