PNW December 2022 - Part II

[MWG]

5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

I thought it was all supposed to hit California. 

Yeah, don't now but it will pretty much wet down here. Anything can change though

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This was the main action in January 2021

 

Two weeks later 

[ShawniganLake]

The warmth the last few days has kicked the **** out of our monthly average.  Gonna end up warmer than 2016 now. 

[Cloud]

GFS toying with a chance of snow for Thursday afternoon with temps in the low-mid 30s while the Euro is in the mid-40s for the same time frame. Continued theme of warm vs. cold biases between the two models for this winter. Good thing it's 7 days out, so they are quite meaningless and useless. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

14 minutes ago, Cloud said:

GFS toying with a chance of snow for Thursday afternoon with temps in the low-mid 30s while the Euro is in the mid-40s for the same time frame. Continued theme of warm vs. cold biases between the two models for this winter. Good thing it's 7 days out, so they are quite meaningless and useless. 

One of the reliefs about living here is that it seems we won't be involved in the outcome so it'll be entertaining to watch y'all go crazy again.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

One of the reliefs about living here is that it seems we won't be involved in the outcome so it'll be entertaining to watch y'all go crazy again.

Realistically we are looking at 1000ft snow levels with that at best. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Realistically we are looking at 1000ft snow levels with that at best. 

Thanks Canadian Tim! Yeah definitely nothing on the horizon right now that looks significant…just a bit below normal going forward with lots of mountain snows. 

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, Chris said:

Anecdotally I believe SSWs significantly increase the PNW odds in a Nino winter. 

That may be the case, and would make some sense since the El Nino forcing alone is not favorable for blocking where the PNW needs it most of the time.

[T-Town]

RIP Pele. 

[Slushy Inch]

Another interesting control run.

[Deweydog]

https://www.gbnews.uk/weather/uk-winter-weather-warning-heavy-snow-forecast-for-mid-january-latest-maps-show-sudden-stratospheric-warming-event-could-wreak-havoc-across-britain/413779
 

It’s bloody coming.

 

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure how the last few triple dip Nina’s have performed over the last 150 years or so…but this one’s gotta be at or almost the top of the list. Had 15.5” in 2020-2021….11.3” in 2021-2022 and 6.0” so far in 2022-2023. Definitely better than the last one. 

In the modern era, there have really only been 3 other ones: 1998-01, 1973-76, and 1954-57. Every 20-25 years like clockwork. 

The last one (1954-57) has been the gold standard...would definitely need at least one more major event this winter for the recent stretch to be in the conversation.

[TacomaWx]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

In the modern era, there have really only been 3 other ones: 1998-01, 1973-76, and 1954-57. Every 20-25 years like clockwork. 

The last one has been the gold standard...would definitely need at least one more major event this winter for the recent stretch to be in the conversation.

Thanks Cereal box tiger 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Thanks Cereal box tiger 

You're welcome, weather of Tacoma.

[Terreboner]

Anyone have an update on January?  Primarily mid/late January?  Are the trends still looking good?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, at this point a month like January 1957 is probably off the table from this ENSO run. Maybe if we were to have a regional blast at the end January, a February 2019 redux, and then a solidly chilly March with lowland snow, Seattle could make a good argument that it rivaled the 1954-57 stretch. South of PDX the 2020-21 winter was kind of a dud. I suppose 1954-55 was pretty meh outside of March down this way, but it was still probably a bit better than 20-21. I think we are at a point where even down here this run was clearly better than 1998-2001. 

As for this winter, I had hopes that it could end up as the best of the 21st Century. I'm not willing to write that off yet, but we would need some big time late January/February magic. But no complaints. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Anyone have an update on January?  Primarily mid/late January?  Are the trends still looking good?

Looking awesome for scoring 50°F rain!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Anyone have an update on January?  Primarily mid/late January?  Are the trends still looking good?

Euro Weeklies should be out today. 

[BLI snowman]

29 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

https://www.gbnews.uk/weather/uk-winter-weather-warning-heavy-snow-forecast-for-mid-january-latest-maps-show-sudden-stratospheric-warming-event-could-wreak-havoc-across-britain/413779
 

It’s bloody coming.

 

No MLK Day in the UK  

[TacomaWx]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looking awesome for scoring 50°F rain!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just ran some numbers, projecting out through the end of the month. We are going to come very close, but may come in just below November's average temp. Looks like we are on pace for 36.5, November was 36.8. Obviously if we had avoided the torching we would have beaten it easily. Even if we end up a little warmer than expected the next two days we should beat out last December's 37.2. Our 30 year December mean is 37.5, so we should come in with about a -1 departure. 

[TT-SEA]

55 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Another interesting control run.

The control run is usually interesting in one way or another.

But the 12Z EPS is far from anything interesting in the 10-15 day period.   Other than a wet pattern for CA.  

 

[Cloud]

Wow!!! Look at all this rain aiming for the entire state of California. A blessing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The control run is usually interesting in one way or another.

But the 12Z EPS is far from anything interesting in the 10-15 day period.   Other than a wet pattern for CA.  

 

Thanks for posting. This is nothing new honestly. The 2nd and 3rd weeks of January are going to be pretty uninspiring. If we do end up with near normal temps during that period it will be a big win. Of the first 3 weeks of January, pretty much all guidance shows the first week being the coolest in our region. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A foot of Rain in Atascadero and San Luis Obispo. Insane.

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No MLK Day in the UK  

Ahh, but there’s this…

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/dec/02/martin-luther-king-in-london-1964-reflections-on-a-landmark-visit
 

Several days later it got VERY cold here and then sh*t flooded.

[Deweydog]

18z ICON looks rock solid.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Wow!!! Look at all this rain aiming for the entire state of California. A blessing. 

Those East Bay numbers are nothing short of incredible. This is like 70% of the average annual precip for some areas.

[SimplySmoothWX]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Wow!!! Look at all this rain aiming for the entire state of California. A blessing. 

That is some serious drought-busting rain

[Meatyorologist]

32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

18z ICON looks rock solid.

what's the TREND??

[TacomaWx]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

what's the TREND??

2005

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty dreary day in Salem. 

[TT-SEA]

A little light rain falling now... on a mostly bare ground.   It's been dry for much of the day though.    Not nearly as pretty as one week ago.

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

2005

https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/Rain-pounding-the-Bay-Area-could-signal-the-17679316.php

[Cold Snap]

Currently 46.3 and at 0.02” of rain from some showers moving through. It’s great to see the models showing a ton of rain for California. They really need it more than anyone and I hope they get enough this winter to end the drought!

[ShawniganLake]

41F rain today.  Most of the snow is gone from my yard. The shady parts of the neighborhood still have quite a bit. 

[NWbyNW]

The wind storm event I was talking about yesterday is beginning to make blow into Oregon's southern and central coast.  It ramps up later tonight, but swells are already increasing with sustained 10-18mph winds around Lincoln City.  Here was a live shot from their camera less then a minute ago.  Gusts will start get in the 30-50mph range in the coming hours.

 

[Tyler Mode]

Can't wait to watch these grow!

[Tyler Mode]

Awfully dreary day for being between weather systems.  The "real" rain doesn't start until tonight, already at 0.15" of all day drizzle and light rain.

[Mr Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

what's the TREND??

[Meatyorologist]

35 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Gorgeous

[Deweydog]

UNDER SEIGE

[High Desert Mat?]

Just now, Deweydog said:

UNDER SEIGE

Yes but is that the area where it works for us later on? Hmmmm, that’s the question. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

MossMan moment here, the snow banks are in a sad state after a week of subtropical rain/wind.

 

[High Desert Mat?]

How are the forecasts for the PDO, PNA, EPO, and NAO looking? 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

UNDER SEIGE

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, Cloud said:

Wow!!! Look at all this rain aiming for the entire state of California. A blessing. 

This will be blamed on climate change, especially if it results in flooding. 

Just as the recent drought there was due to climate change. 

[LowerGarfield]

4 hours ago, Cloud said:

Wow!!! Look at all this rain aiming for the entire state of California. A blessing. 

My parents and brother/niece are camping in Big Sur this week starting today. It's a whale watch booze party. It's an annual family tradition of theirs to go camping there with no cell service until Jan 1.

They hike during the day when it isn't raining and they sing bluegrass songs with guitars and  alcohol by the fire at night. I told them this year it will be wet. A bunch of families have been doing this for like thirty or forty years now. I stopped going because it's tough to travel and camp but they love it. Kids of the families now come and bring their own kids/friends. They are probably drinking something fun and trying to stay dry now if their drinks aren't.

 

They camp right on the bluff overlooking the ocean about two hours south of Monterey and one hour north of Hearst Castle.

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This will be blamed on climate change, especially if it results in flooding. 

Just as the recent drought there was due to climate change. 

Yeah I mean c‘mon…don’t these fools know that it’s actually tonga that caused this?

[Deweydog]

24 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Yes but is that the area where it works for us later on? Hmmmm, that’s the question. 

I dunno. And right now it’s just progged to be a fender bender as opposed to Princess Di vs. paparazzi type scenario.