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PNW December 2022 - Part II


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35 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

giphy.gif

Gorgeous

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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4 hours ago, Cloud said:

Wow!!! Look at all this rain aiming for the entire state of California. A blessing. 

qpf_acc.us_state_ca_n.png

qpf_acc.us_state_ca_s.png

My parents and brother/niece are camping in Big Sur this week starting today. It's a whale watch booze party. It's an annual family tradition of theirs to go camping there with no cell service until Jan 1.

They hike during the day when it isn't raining and they sing bluegrass songs with guitars and  alcohol by the fire at night. I told them this year it will be wet. A bunch of families have been doing this for like thirty or forty years now. I stopped going because it's tough to travel and camp but they love it. Kids of the families now come and bring their own kids/friends. They are probably drinking something fun and trying to stay dry now if their drinks aren't.

 

They camp right on the bluff overlooking the ocean about two hours south of Monterey and one hour north of Hearst Castle.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 9.3 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 2.0 on 12/23/22

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 12/23/22 (possibly 12/24/22)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This will be blamed on climate change, especially if it results in flooding. 

Just as the recent drought there was due to climate change. 

Yeah I mean c‘mon…don’t these fools know that it’s actually tonga that caused this?

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.86”

Wet season rainfall-16.35”

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24 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Yes but is that the area where it works for us later on? Hmmmm, that’s the question. 

I dunno. And right now it’s just progged to be a fender bender as opposed to Princess Di vs. paparazzi type scenario.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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15 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

My parents and brother/niece are camping in Big Sur this week starting today. It's a whale watch booze party. It's an annual family tradition of theirs to go camping there with no cell service until Jan 1.

They hike during the day when it isn't raining and they sing bluegrass songs with guitars and  alcohol by the fire at night. I told them this year it will be wet. A bunch of families have been doing this for like thirty or forty years now. I stopped going because it's tough to travel and camp but they love it. Kids of the families now come and bring their own kids/friends. They are probably drinking something fun and trying to stay dry now if their drinks aren't.

 

They camp right on the bluff overlooking the ocean about two hours south of Monterey and one hour north of Hearst Castle.

That’s awesome. Jack Kerouac would approve. 

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1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

My parents and brother/niece are camping in Big Sur this week starting today. It's a whale watch booze party. It's an annual family tradition of theirs to go camping there with no cell service until Jan 1.

They hike during the day when it isn't raining and they sing bluegrass songs with guitars and  alcohol by the fire at night. I told them this year it will be wet. A bunch of families have been doing this for like thirty or forty years now. I stopped going because it's tough to travel and camp but they love it. Kids of the families now come and bring their own kids/friends. They are probably drinking something fun and trying to stay dry now if their drinks aren't.

 

They camp right on the bluff overlooking the ocean about two hours south of Monterey and one hour north of Hearst Castle.

D**n I wish I was there. Most scenic coastline in America. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

How did the weeklies look? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

How are the forecasts for the PDO, PNA, EPO, and NAO looking? 

I just came on here to comment about the PNA forecast from today's ECMWF weeklies.  It shows sub -1 as we get into February which is about as strong a signal as I've ever seen that far out.  Being that these things often happen faster than projected I'm thinking the final week of January for things to get going.  Could even be sooner if things take an unforeseen path to reach the goodies.

  • Excited 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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6 hours ago, Cloud said:

Wow!!! Look at all this rain aiming for the entire state of California. A blessing. 

qpf_acc.us_state_ca_n.png

qpf_acc.us_state_ca_s.png

I couldn't help but see Yuma, Arizona at a sad 0.1" of rain. 

If there's one town in the Lower 48 I could think of that has the most excruciatingly boring weather that would drive weenies insane, it'd be Yuma. Instant move to Flagstaff for me. 

All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
 ❞

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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The models look remarkably dry after this next system.  You would never think so looking at the 500mb maps for next week.  A lot of jet suppression and surface high pressure it appears.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just came on here to comment about the PNA forecast from today's ECMWF weeklies.  It shows sub -1 as we get into February which is about as strong a signal as I've ever seen that far out.  Being that these things often happen faster than projected I'm thinking the final week of January for things to get going.  Could even be sooner if things take an unforeseen path to reach the goodies.

What about the EPO?

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23 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Late Jan into Feb still in play 

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-1672272000-1672876800-1676246400-20.gif

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-1672272000-1672876800-1676246400-20.gif

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t2m_f_anom_7day-1672272000-1672876800-1676246400-20.gif

The excitement is palpable.

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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11 hours ago, Chris said:

Anecdotally I believe SSWs significantly increase the PNW odds in a Nino winter. 

Since 1958, there have been 18 SSW events during El Nino winters.

15 of those impacted the Continental U.S.

8 of those impacted the PNW, them being Jan 1958, Dec 1965, Feb 1966, Nov 1968, Jan 1970, Dec 1987, Feb 2007, and Jan 2019.

Statistically, that's a 44% chance a SSW affects us during an El Nino. La Ninas are at a higher margin, with 50% (8 out of 16) affecting the PNW. There are also more household names on the La Nina side. Feb 1989, Dec 1998, and Feb 2021 just to name a few. 

Overall, I would view SSWs during ENSO events the same way I view them on lowland snow. Sure, there is an increase for snow during La Nina but it is not guaranteed.

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Looking at the surface pressure maps for the ECMWF at day 10 this is actually a pretty chilly pattern.  The main jet is well retracted westward and the cutoff low off of CA leaves us in a NE surface pressure gradient with slightly below normal 850s.  Pretty cold by recent Jan standards. 

1673179200-I1xfRqSMSiM.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What about the EPO?

Zero which is fine.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models look remarkably dry after this next system.  You would never think so looking at the 500mb maps for next week.  A lot of jet suppression and surface high pressure it appears.

Lots of chances here in Central OR for wraparound precip and easterly/upslope flow.  I like it.

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2 minutes ago, SimplySmoothWX said:

Since 1958, there have been 18 SSW events during El Nino winters.

15 of those impacted the Continental U.S.

8 of those impacted the PNW, them being Jan 1958, Dec 1965, Feb 1966, Nov 1968, Jan 1970, Dec 1987, Feb 2007, and Jan 2019.

Statistically, that's an 53% chance a SSW affects us during an El Nino. La Ninas are at a higher margin, with 61% (8 out of 13) affecting the PNW. There are also more household names on the La Nina side. Feb 1989, Dec 1998, and Feb 2021 just to name a few. 

Overall, I would view SSWs during ENSO events the same way I view them on lowland snow. Sure, there is an increase for snow during La Nina but it is not guaranteed.

The winter of 1957-58 was a colossal turd for the PNW though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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Just now, Terreboner said:

Lots of chances here in Central OR for wraparound precip and easterly/upslope flow.  I like it.

Very possible with that pattern.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very possible with that pattern.

Right now the end of next week, Thur/Friday-ish is looking interesting.  Looks like lots of low level easterlies with precip overriding central and eastern OR.  Temps don't get out of the 20's for the duration.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

D**n I wish I was there. Most scenic coastline in America. 

It really is. Often you can see whale spouts from the gray whales passing by. Like I said, my parents would make us go every year even in rain... except there'd be a few years where the mudslides would close the road in both directions. Big Sur can be a real winner in storms like this one. The one bummer would be when it would rain on NYE because everyone would stay in their tents and the wild party would be not as fun. Some years on NYE we would even visit a now retired Monterey congressman's property about 10 mins away. That party wasn't as fun so we stopped going there and stayed at the campground. They also made everyone play for entertainment instead of for fun. My parents are also going on a trip to Baja to see the whales there for the first time, in just a few weeks so I'm a bit jealous.

I like camping and hiking but I think model riding is just as fun. Sure beats refreshing weather.com every 5 minutes 20 years ago for stations 1 hr north and south in hopes of a sunny week. Currently 37F at my location. We had some rain earlier.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 9.3 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 2.0 on 12/23/22

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 12/23/22 (possibly 12/24/22)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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1 hour ago, Bueryan said:

Shout out to my big brother on his 44th birthday. He used to wake me up in 1st grade to watch street lights and listen to his weather radio for NWS updates which started my weather interest. He also introduced me to the forum 8 or 9 years ago which my wife wishes never happened. He's watching the Huskies game but he'll find this eventually. Love you man

Hmmm…

He turned 27 today in 2005…

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Wind gusts are hitting the central and southern Oregon coast right now!  Already seeing gusts in the 40s with 50s likely later.  Already 400 new people are out of power within Coos County.  This wind will progressively get stronger until the early morning hours of Friday when it shifts to the Washington Coast and sputters in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Chances of strong gusts for the North Sound are diminishing. 

 

Screen Shot 2022-12-29 at 9.22.30 PM.png

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