PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Slushy Inch]

22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Some good news possibly 

 

 

 

 

Wasn't great in previous January's but we'll see.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Wasn't great in previous January's but we'll see.

No it wasn’t. However MJO 7 is our sweet spot (I think) so I will take that.

[TT-SEA]

Another warm day at SEA... looks like 52 so far.

The cold monthly average has taken quite a hit over the last week... looks like it will end up around -3.7 which is still impressively cold.  But this month will end up warmer than last December.

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Probably around 120 hours this year. Nearly 100 hours just last month alone. 

Crazy.  Is there a weak point somewhere where it fails often?  Is the utility company not cutting trees around the lines? You're not THAT far out.

5 days of no power can get pricey for a generator. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Newport 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 50.3. I’ve recorded highs of 45+ every day since Christmas Eve. Before that I hadn’t recorded a high over 44 for the entire month. Quite the flip of a switch.

[Deweydog]

[Slushy Inch]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Right now, I'm just looking for some kind of Pacific shutdown in the long-range ensembles.

[Cold Snap]

It is DUMPING rain at my house. I sometimes wonder when it’s raining hard now hard it would be snowing if it was falling as snow. If what’s falling right now was falling as snow I’d say about a 3 inch per hour rate at least.

[snow_wizard]

9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a surprise. Nothing of note is going to happen until the last week of the month and it may very well wait for the calendar flip. 

I'm going for Jan 18 to Jan 25 for the flip.  The ensembles are pretty aggressive on putting the minus height anoms over the North Pacific west of the Date Line by mid month.  Once that happens it doesn't take long.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Crazy.  Is there a weak point somewhere where it fails often?  Is the utility company not cutting trees around the lines? You're not THAT far out.

5 days of no power can get pricey for a generator. 

In general, the more rural an area the less reliable the electric service. When I lived on Bainbridge Island, I had the electric range my place came with replaced with a propane one (it already had a propane heater in the living room). I would never want to live in a rural, all-electric house with no generator backup (and you would be surprised how many such homes there are, with no transfer switch or anything).

Makes me even happier to live where I do. As the lowlands go, my area is one of the snowier ones. Plus I’m in an established urban neighbourhood with reliable electric service. (Ditto for Bellingham when I lived there.)

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Right now, I'm just looking for some kind of Pacific shutdown in the long-range ensembles.

It's coming.  The EPS shows the EPO dropping to 0 by mid month.

[jakerepp]

Tons of rain down here the last two days. It was probably a half inch. House got it's Tyvek wrap yesterday.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

It is DUMPING rain at my house. I sometimes wonder when it’s raining hard now hard it would be snowing if it was falling as snow. If what’s falling right now was falling as snow I’d say about a 3 inch per hour rate at least.

Kind of a futile exercise when we are still seeing south winds.  At least this weekend things get a chance to get a bit chilly.

[snow_wizard]

It's really something how easily it gets cold along the east slopes of the Cascades this time of year.  Pretty mild airmass and generally southerly gradients and yet Wenatchee only made 30 today.

[Slushy Inch]

GEFS extended coming out

[NWbyNW]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Newport 

Gosh I wish I was RIGHT there enjoying the weather.  Would love to watch the storms come in and see the waves. 

[NWbyNW]

58 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

It is DUMPING rain at my house. I sometimes wonder when it’s raining hard now hard it would be snowing if it was falling as snow. If what’s falling right now was falling as snow I’d say about a 3 inch per hour rate at least.

It's quite choppy, but you can see the heavier rain over Duvall and eastern Snoho County throughout the day!  It's been pretty light, mostly dry here all day after some showers in the morning.  Wind died down too. Pretty incredible 'dream' if it was snow, lol!  

Pretty strong rainshadow to the NE of the Olympics throughout the day.  It breaks down a bit, but comes right back again. 

[DareDuck]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was just looking at the snow depth records at Hoodoo near Santiam Pass over the past 20 years. The deepest snow depth recorded there was April 8, 2008 at 157". 2001-02 was also a really big snow pack year up there, and the 3rd deepest snow depth was recorded in March, 2012. 

Conversely the worst year by far was 2014-15, the max depth was only 23", and no other week recorded a depth greater than 13", I'm not sure if the resort was even able to operate that winter, if so it would have had to have been very very limited. 

They were open for 10 days in 2014-15 after being open for 38 days in 13-14. It was a rough couple years. I don’t even think Willamette opened. 

[Terreboner]

Getting ready to switch over to snow here.  Too bad the moisture ends in a couple hours and the next couple weeks look like the same type of nonsense.  

C'mon mid/late January, we are counting on you.  Please don't hide in the fetal position and expect February to come bail your azz out again!!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

2006 

[Doinko]

 

[Terreboner]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

1.11 inches of precip and 3.4" of snow???  No way.  And doubt it was a bunch of sleet and freezing rain...maybe but somehow a good snowfall would've came out of that.

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Some snowfall totals from that storm:
Hood River: 27.5"
Battle Ground: 16.0"
Dallas: 16.0"
PDX: 14.8"
Estacada: 14.8"
Bethany: 13.6"
Forest Grove: 11.0"
Hillsboro: 10.1"
Oregon City: 10.1"
Salem: 8.1"
Silverton: 7.5"
 

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

1.11 inches of precip and 3.4" of snow???  No way.  And doubt it was a bunch of sleet and freezing rain...maybe but somehow a good snowfall would've came out of that.

It was a pretty big ZR/Sleet storm I think, here are some of the remarks from a COOP station


"Sleet till noon, moderate ZR afternoon, ice on all things 1/4" thick"

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Some snowfall totals from that storm:
Hood River: 27.5"
Battle Ground: 16.0"
Dallas: 16.0"
PDX: 14.8"
Estacada: 14.8"
Bethany: 13.6"
Forest Grove: 11.0"
Hillsboro: 10.1"
Oregon City: 10.1"
Salem: 8.1"
Silverton: 7.5"
 

Based on those numbers it looked like an easterly wind influenced situation for sure.  Cold air damming in the likely westside locations.  I would bet a good portion of that event it was dumping snow very far east in the gorge and far west of PDX.  Looks like some damming even as far south as Dallas, cool stuff.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Based on those numbers it looked like an easterly wind influenced situation for sure.  Cold air damming in the likely westside locations.  I would bet a good portion of that event it was dumping snow very far east in the gorge and far west of PDX.  Looks like some damming even as far south as Dallas, cool stuff.

I'm surprised Forest Grove didn't have that much compared to some other places. Don't they usually do well in those situations?

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

In general, the more rural an area the less reliable the electric service. When I lived on Bainbridge Island, I had the electric range my place came with replaced with a propane one (it already had a propane heater in the living room). I would never want to live in a rural, all-electric house with no generator backup (and you would be surprised how many such homes there are, with no transfer switch or anything).

Makes me even happier to live where I do. As the lowlands go, my area is one of the snowier ones. Plus I’m in an established urban neighbourhood with reliable electric service. (Ditto for Bellingham when I lived there.)

Meh. Power goes out all the time here.  Always has and I’ve lived here for 40 years now (scary).  Lots of people don’t have generators.  Your fridge and freezer is usually good for at least 24 hrs if you arent constantly opening it.   If we get desperate we can cook on the bbq or heat something up on the wood stove. We were gifted a small generator that we use to run a couple lights and the TV. 

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

It is DUMPING rain at my house. I sometimes wonder when it’s raining hard now hard it would be snowing if it was falling as snow. If what’s falling right now was falling as snow I’d say about a 3 inch per hour rate at least.

I’ve seen 3-4”/hr snowfall rates several times here. It’s pretty impressive to watch. You usually need a pretty cold airmass in place with high ratio snowfall. 15:1 or 20:1

[ShawniganLake]

RIP Barbara Walters

[ShawniganLake]

3 hours ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Right now, I'm just looking for some kind of Pacific shutdown in the long-range ensembles.

If we do see some type of arctic outbreak in North America linked to the possible strat warming episode.  It’s unlikely we would see anything before very late January or even February 

[RentonHill]

GEFS extended still keepin the dream alive

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

RIP Barbara Walters

She’s with Peter Jennings now. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

50 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Meh. Power goes out all the time here.  Always has and I’ve lived here for 40 years now (scary).  Lots of people don’t have generators.  Your fridge and freezer is usually good for at least 24 hrs if you arent constantly opening it.   If we get desperate we can cook on the bbq or heat something up on the wood stove. We were gifted a small generator that we use to run a couple lights and the TV. 

Well, at least you have a wood stove to cook on (not to mention provide space heating) if need be. I really liked being able to light my gas stove with a match and mostly cook meals like normal during outages.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. The extended GEFS is really good tonight. This might be the real deal. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We went 9 years without a generator, but after the 2020 Labor Day wind storm we decided we needed a generator. It was fortuitous as we were without power for nearly a month total that winter, including 12 days after the ice storm, and about 5 days after the January wind storm. That’s the biggest issue out here, the extremely long duration of our outages. Also being on a well we don’t have water without generator power. 

[The Blob]

We still have snow at work.

[Terreboner]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. The extended GEFS is really good tonight. This might be the real deal. 

So the Goofus's father, the Geefus, says all is well?  

Sweet!!  What does the Queefus say?

[Doinko]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. The extended GEFS is really good tonight. This might be the real deal. 

Euro extended looks great to start Feb as well. February 1989 + 2014 + 1993 + 2011???

[T-Town]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/30/us/office-space-inspired-washington-software-engineer-thief/index.html
 

Forgot the all important step of burning the place to the ground.  

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We went 9 years without a generator, but after the 2020 Labor Day wind storm we decided we needed a generator. It was fortuitous as we were without power for nearly a month total that winter, including 12 days after the ice storm, and about 5 days after the January wind storm. That’s the biggest issue out here, the extremely long duration of our outages. Also being on a well we don’t have water without generator power. 

Yikes. 12 days is a long time.  We were lucky in the Dec 2018 windstorm. Only about 30hrs without power here.  But places nearby were 10+ days. 

[NWbyNW]

15 minutes ago, The Blob said:

We still have snow at work.

Make a snow-blob!!! 

[Doinko]

Number 1 analog...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Number 1 analog...

Looks like someone cherry picked a pile of manure. The 2005 analog is pretty strong now. Arctic blast in February and lowland snow in March? 

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting to note the latest GEFS extended and the 18z CFS both moved up the timing on the arrival of a colder pattern significantly over what we had been seeing.  Going by the LRC I've been thinking Jan 18 to Jan 25.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like someone cherry picked a pile of manure. The 2005 analog is pretty strong now. Arctic blast in February and lowland snow in March? 

I'm thinking we see something nice in February. Hoping something like 1993 happens

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like someone cherry picked a pile of manure. The 2005 analog is pretty strong now. Arctic blast in February and lowland snow in March? 

It's just a transitional thing.  None of those analogs came from a year that has anything resembling what we have already seen this winter.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

I'm thinking we see something nice in February. Hoping something like 1993 happens

It will probably begin in January.  1993 had a cold January BTW.

[Snownerd3000]

 

Bring it