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PNW December 2022 - Part II


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2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

How likely is this to happen this far out?

I think the GFS/GEFS is showing a cold bias, BUT if cold air does manage to spill down into the Columbia Basin/Gorge and we develop as east wind, then it's very possible. This ensemble run develops the east wind before Day 5. I put this chance low though ~20% .... IF 12z runs backed this up including the Euro/EPS then we can increase that percentage further.

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  • Longtimer

Wow. F***. And i never, never curse. I’m outta here. What’s the point of trying to forecast with super computer models? This is just dumb. It’s like buying a bunch if sh** coins on FTX being promised at least 10x with possibility for 100x… then signing in the next morning to see it all gone and accounts frozen. ECMWF is the SBF of models.

Edited by Brennan
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  • Longtimer

The "Initial System" that the 0z showed coming perfectly through the North Sound between Mt Vernon and Everett is now somewhere up in SE Alaska, not even recognizable. No forcing. This insane mega blocking we'd never seen before never happened. It was all forecast model phantom blocking. This is juuuuust like a sh**coin rug. Make you believe it, then WRECK you. 

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  • Longtimer

On the flip side, as Dewey pointed out... We'd never seen a progression like what was being shown when things looked good for us... From dry inverted cold to earth shattering arctic/snow mega 150 block. Guess we should have known better. I suppose this leaves the door open for January for us ... perhaps. 

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  • Longtimer
2 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The ensembles shows it well. This would be real bad east of I-205 where it's 2-4 Colder than PDX.

ens_image.php?geoid=135728&var=202&run=6

My main takeaway on this map is the insane blow torch coming up. 🤦‍♂️

  • Excited 1
  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Though the 06z is horrible and snow levels in the Oregon cascades are 5-6K throughout. It’s not quite as big of a torch as some previous runs. Baby steps. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, T-Town said:

34 and mostly clear here this morning. Stepped out to take the dog out and it feels amazing out there. Hoping for some frozen fun over the next week or so. 

Still some potential for some snow here next week. Looks like 3 separate chances. Basically a slightly colder but shorter version of the late November-early December event.  We’re riding a fine line though and could ultimately miss out for the most part if things shift about 50-75 miles north. For now we’re looking ok. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.86”

Wet season rainfall-16.35”

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Right now I’d say our best case scenario here in the south sound is a January 2012 lite event. Worst case scenario…January 2011 where we got a quick inch of snow and it was over…except this time there would be some freezing rain mixed into the equation. 

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.86”

Wet season rainfall-16.35”

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Right now I’d say our best case scenario here in the south sound is a January 2012 lite event. Worst case scenario…January 2011 where we got a quick inch of snow and it was over…except this time there would be some freezing rain mixed into the equation. 

time to cancel winter, sad that we have better odds of breaking heat records.

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

time to cancel winter, sad that we have better odds of breaking heat records.

Definitely could be in record territory in about a week. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

time to cancel winter, sad that we have better odds of breaking heat records.

Lol, I’m actually feeling pretty good about this winter at this point. We’ve already had a solid round of winter weather already here and another one potentially on the way. If we can manage 1-3” of snow with 3-4 days in the low to mid 30s for highs then a ZR event at the end…I’d consider this month to be very solid even if we torch in late December going into January. It’s still a very big question mark how this plays out but FOR NOW Olympia north looks ok for next week. 

  • Like 1

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.86”

Wet season rainfall-16.35”

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 06Z ICON was improved... and the 06Z EPS control run was also improved.   

I am not sure we can stick a fork in this yet.   The problem with the recent models runs is that the cold air does not spill out over the ocean as much.    This is a short term improvement as more cold air stays in southern BC and sinks south but also leads to a much faster warm up later next week.

This is still evolving and to see a couple models reverse this trend means its still a complicated situation and there could be additional swings.

I think despite the odds of a full on arctic solution that always just looked wrong IMO have decreased…our odds at a decent event in western WA have increased. Would be nice to finally score a really significant arctic event…but we don’t necessarily need it for some fun things to happen as we’ve seen the last 7 years. 

  • Like 2

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.86”

Wet season rainfall-16.35”

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  • Longtimer

@Perturbed Member yeah I used to be on skyline blvd at about 1500’ great for snow and the gorge basically was pointed directly at me so we did really well in outflow situations as well. The problem is most of it is multnomah county and taxes are insane.  And with the increase in the market most stuff is probably pushing 750k - 1 mil Minimum, if you can find something for sale. There isn’t a ton of real estate but there are some good spots in the scappoose-st Helen’s area with elevation. 

Edited by Timmy
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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol, I’m actually feeling pretty good about this winter at this point. We’ve already had a solid round of winter weather already here and another one potentially on the way. If we can manage 1-3” of snow with 3-4 days in the low to mid 30s for highs then a ZR event at the end…I’d consider this month to be very solid even if we torch in late December going into January. It’s still a very big question mark how this plays out but FOR NOW Olympia north looks ok for next week. 

I’m good with a little freezing rain to wrap things up, just don’t want a full on ice storm. Not sure where I would draw the line between the two but expect i will know it when I see it. 

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think despite the odds of a full on arctic solution that always just looked wrong IMO have decreased…our odds at a decent event in western WA have increased. Would be nice to finally score a really significant arctic event…but we don’t necessarily need it for some fun things to happen as we’ve seen the last 7 years. 

This is a solid take. GFS solutions are and will be ridiculous, but there will likely be a solid event north of Olympia.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, T-Town said:

I’m good with a little freezing rain to wrap things up, just don’t want a full on ice storm. Not sure where I would draw the line between the two but expect i will know it when I see it. 

The January 2012 ice storm was devastating here. I’ve seen a couple freezing rain events here with just 1/4” of ice and those really aren’t a big deal. That one in 2012 was on another level and hopefully we can avoid that next week. 

  • Like 1

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.86”

Wet season rainfall-16.35”

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

The January 2012 ice storm was devastating here. I’ve seen a couple freezing rain events here with just 1/4” of ice and those really aren’t a big deal. That one in 2012 was on another level and hopefully we can avoid that next week. 

I was in Maple Valley then. I recall some freezing rain but no real impacts. Don’t think we even lost power. 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is a solid take. GFS solutions are and will be ridiculous, but there will likely be a solid event north of Olympia.

I’m still not 100% on the central/south Puget sound scoring…the odds have gone up to like 65-70% IMO but more like 90% north of Everett. 

  • Like 1

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.86”

Wet season rainfall-16.35”

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  • Staff
3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I was in Maple Valley then. I recall some freezing rain but no real impacts. Don’t think we even lost power. 

Yeah... that area was warm nosed.    While areas around Tacoma and from I-90 northward kept the low level cold longer.   It was a mess out here.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

I used to think the January 2004 ice storm was massive, or the December 2007 one we had in Oklahoma.  But I hope none of y’all see anything like February 2021. Ironically the places actually most likely to see a damaging storm like that are probably the Portland and south metro areas. Dang gorge. 

  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

What day was the zr up there in 2012? We went right from snow to rain here, 21” of snow fell on the 17th, 5.36” of rain on the 18th. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What day was the zr up there in 2012? We went right from snow to rain here, 21” of snow fell on the 17th, 5.36” of rain on the 18th. 

IIRC it was the 17th-18th. Did freezing rain for like 12+ hours I think. My memory of that isn’t super sharp since I was 12 at the time. But I remember the constant on and off power outages and tree limbs breaking. We had 1” of ice accumulation. 

  • Like 1

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.86”

Wet season rainfall-16.35”

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28 minutes ago, Timmy said:

@Perturbed Member yeah I used to be on skyline blvd at about 1500’ great for snow and the gorge basically was pointed directly at me so we did really well in outflow situations as well. The problem is most of it is multnomah county and taxes are insane.  And with the increase in the market most stuff is probably pushing 750k - 1 mil Minimum, if you can find something for sale. There isn’t a ton of real estate but there are some good spots in the scappoose-st Helen’s area with elevation. 

Highest point in Portland on Skyline just briefly touches 1200'.

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  • Longtimer

25 at SLE 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 06Z ICON was improved... and the 06Z EPS control run was also improved.   

I am not sure we can stick a fork in this yet.   The problem with the recent models runs is that the cold air does not spill out over the ocean as much.    This is a short term improvement as more cold air stays in southern BC and sinks south but also leads to a much faster warm up later next week.

This is still evolving and to see a couple models reverse this trend means its still a complicated situation and there could be additional swings.

undeniable bait and switch from the models lol

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  • Staff
3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

undeniable bait and switch from the models lol

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

If this were a tradeable market this last move by the models would be the shakeout move in Wyckoff. Markup next?

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

Agreed. I understand some disappointment at this point but it’s way too early to give up on this thing. The upside is still there for something special. 

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It is worth noting that all of our recent big events had a mid-range pullback and then reversed it going into the event... as Randy often points out.  

The day 5 pullback.  I would expect the gfs will trend at least a little cooler in the next day or 2

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  • Longtimer

Hmmmm icon looks

good early. Let’s see where it goes.

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

It’s also worth noting most of the shrieking screams about a pull back are coming from Oregon members and rightly so. But if you live north of Olympia it’s ok to ignore us.

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, thickhog said:

You have to be up on the Chehalem Mountains near Bald Peak park to get > 1500’ in the WV. 

Yep, 1629'.  Even with it's elevation it doesn't snow there a whole lot more than lower elevations in PDX.  It has some locational problems going on.  Does pretty good in cold air damming scenarios though.

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