PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 still freezing rain PDX! Strong east winds actually drop the temp back to 29-30!

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow this won't happen, but even after the ice storm, east winds ramp up further and the temps plummet to the mid 20s!

[Gradient Keeper]

Could you imagine 40-50+mph east winds with 1.8 to 2.3" of zr?  

[Gradient Keeper]

Holy S ..... even more ice

[Gradient Keeper]

That would be catastrophic for PDX/Vancouver metro!

[Gradient Keeper]

Checking the model soundings for PDX the air aloft would not support snow, so that 7-10" in the metro would be sleet and even more ZR perhaps up to 3" of freezing rain!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Checking the model soundings for PDX the air aloft would not support snow, so that 7-10" in the metro would be sleet and even more ZR perhaps up to 3" of freezing rain!

Christmas would be cancelled. That would catastrophic for infrastructure 

[Gradient Keeper]

Model sounding for PDX. The map showed heavy snow at this time, but this would definitely not be that. This would be some sleet and but more likely ZR more than anything.

[Gradient Keeper]

Actually hoping its an outlier..... As much as I love extreme weather, no thanks on this one.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Day 5.5 ... Ensembles are actually bit colder

[Gradient Keeper]

Through Day 5.5 GEFS about in lockstep with Op. 500mb pattern actually bit cooler. Then the Op diverges quickly after Day 5.5 an outlier now colder than the Ensemble mean. This should save PDX from big ice storm.

[The Blob]

I really don't want freezing rain, especially on my work days. I'd rather have snow

[The Blob]

What happened  to the gifs we had for replying?

[Eastwind]

36 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Jet suppression!!!!

Good to see the jet is suppressed more on the 6z ICON and GFS. Baby steps but hopefully a start of a trend as we get closer to this event. It’s going to come all down to timing. If the systems coming from the Pacific can hold off for a bit longer that’s going to allow more cold air to filter into the Columbia Basin.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 nope. PDX drops to 29 with freezing rain

[Gradient Keeper]

East wind ramps up Wednesday morning, but temp warms to freezing except east of I-205. More ZR

[Gradient Keeper]

Wednesday afternoon supposedly PDX thaws to 33, slower east of I-205. With this strong of east wind I doubt we scour out especially when its in the mid 10s central and eastern Gorge.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 We do not scour. East wind increases further temp down to 29 with more zr.

[Gradient Keeper]

The ensembles shows it well. This would be real bad east of I-205 where it's 2-4 Colder than PDX.

[The Blob]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The ensembles shows it well. This would be real bad east of I-205 where it's 2-4 Colder than PDX.

How likely is this to happen this far out?

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

How likely is this to happen this far out?

I think the GFS/GEFS is showing a cold bias, BUT if cold air does manage to spill down into the Columbia Basin/Gorge and we develop as east wind, then it's very possible. This ensemble run develops the east wind before Day 5. I put this chance low though ~20% .... IF 12z runs backed this up including the Euro/EPS then we can increase that percentage further.

[Gradient Keeper]

And with that I'm going to sleep. Barely awake now. Have a great morning all.

[Brennan]

Wow. F***. And i never, never curse. I’m outta here. What’s the point of trying to forecast with super computer models? This is just dumb. It’s like buying a bunch if sh** coins on FTX being promised at least 10x with possibility for 100x… then signing in the next morning to see it all gone and accounts frozen. ECMWF is the SBF of models.

Edited December 15, 2022 by Brennan

[Brennan]

The "Initial System" that the 0z showed coming perfectly through the North Sound between Mt Vernon and Everett is now somewhere up in SE Alaska, not even recognizable. No forcing. This insane mega blocking we'd never seen before never happened. It was all forecast model phantom blocking. This is juuuuust like a sh**coin rug. Make you believe it, then WRECK you. 

[Brennan]

On the flip side, as Dewey pointed out... We'd never seen a progression like what was being shown when things looked good for us... From dry inverted cold to earth shattering arctic/snow mega 150 block. Guess we should have known better. I suppose this leaves the door open for January for us ... perhaps. 

[The Blob]

Frosty at work

[The Blob]

I like what wunderground is showing. If I can't have snow I'd rather have rain over freezing rain

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The ensembles shows it well. This would be real bad east of I-205 where it's 2-4 Colder than PDX.

My main takeaway on this map is the insane blow torch coming up.

[T-Town]

34 and mostly clear here this morning. Stepped out to take the dog out and it feels amazing out there. Hoping for some frozen fun over the next week or so. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Though the 06z is horrible and snow levels in the Oregon cascades are 5-6K throughout. It’s not quite as big of a torch as some previous runs. Baby steps. 

[Everleigh]

Chilly morning! 25.7* currently, which is also the low for the day, so far anyway. 

Definitely feeling a little sad after catching up on the overnight runs and posts. That FZR and Ice make me nervous...I'd much rather have 40* and rain.  

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

10 minutes ago, T-Town said:

34 and mostly clear here this morning. Stepped out to take the dog out and it feels amazing out there. Hoping for some frozen fun over the next week or so. 

Still some potential for some snow here next week. Looks like 3 separate chances. Basically a slightly colder but shorter version of the late November-early December event.  We’re riding a fine line though and could ultimately miss out for the most part if things shift about 50-75 miles north. For now we’re looking ok. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Right now I’d say our best case scenario here in the south sound is a January 2012 lite event. Worst case scenario…January 2011 where we got a quick inch of snow and it was over…except this time there would be some freezing rain mixed into the equation. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Right now I’d say our best case scenario here in the south sound is a January 2012 lite event. Worst case scenario…January 2011 where we got a quick inch of snow and it was over…except this time there would be some freezing rain mixed into the equation. 

time to cancel winter, sad that we have better odds of breaking heat records.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

time to cancel winter, sad that we have better odds of breaking heat records.

Definitely could be in record territory in about a week. 

[TT-SEA]

The 06Z ICON was improved... and the 06Z EPS control run was also improved.   

I am not sure we can stick a fork in this yet.   The problem with the recent models runs is that the cold air does not spill out over the ocean as much.    This is a short term improvement as more cold air stays in southern BC and sinks south but also leads to a much faster warm up later next week.

This is still evolving and to see a couple models reverse this trend means its still a complicated situation and there could be additional swings.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

time to cancel winter, sad that we have better odds of breaking heat records.

Lol, I’m actually feeling pretty good about this winter at this point. We’ve already had a solid round of winter weather already here and another one potentially on the way. If we can manage 1-3” of snow with 3-4 days in the low to mid 30s for highs then a ZR event at the end…I’d consider this month to be very solid even if we torch in late December going into January. It’s still a very big question mark how this plays out but FOR NOW Olympia north looks ok for next week. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 06Z ICON was improved... and the 06Z EPS control run was also improved.   

I am not sure we can stick a fork in this yet.   The problem with the recent models runs is that the cold air does not spill out over the ocean as much.    This is a short term improvement as more cold air stays in southern BC and sinks south but also leads to a much faster warm up later next week.

This is still evolving and to see a couple models reverse this trend means its still a complicated situation and there could be additional swings.

I think despite the odds of a full on arctic solution that always just looked wrong IMO have decreased…our odds at a decent event in western WA have increased. Would be nice to finally score a really significant arctic event…but we don’t necessarily need it for some fun things to happen as we’ve seen the last 7 years. 

[Timmy]

@Perturbed Member yeah I used to be on skyline blvd at about 1500’ great for snow and the gorge basically was pointed directly at me so we did really well in outflow situations as well. The problem is most of it is multnomah county and taxes are insane.  And with the increase in the market most stuff is probably pushing 750k - 1 mil Minimum, if you can find something for sale. There isn’t a ton of real estate but there are some good spots in the scappoose-st Helen’s area with elevation. 

Edited December 15, 2022 by Timmy

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol, I’m actually feeling pretty good about this winter at this point. We’ve already had a solid round of winter weather already here and another one potentially on the way. If we can manage 1-3” of snow with 3-4 days in the low to mid 30s for highs then a ZR event at the end…I’d consider this month to be very solid even if we torch in late December going into January. It’s still a very big question mark how this plays out but FOR NOW Olympia north looks ok for next week. 

I’m good with a little freezing rain to wrap things up, just don’t want a full on ice storm. Not sure where I would draw the line between the two but expect i will know it when I see it.