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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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Gfs shows no overrunning snow for Seattle.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Washingtonians better pray to your new God, the ICON. 

Starting to look like another non event isn’t it? Oregon snow pack going to be gone by new year’s too.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Low of 21.8 at my place in Corvallis this morning before the fog finally formed.  This location is good at getting cold in weak offshore flow/inversion situations:  just enough outflow influence to generate dewpoint depressions and prevent the fog/stratus that Eugene sees more often, but with light enough winds to allow for effective decoupling and radiative cooling.

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Starting to look like another non event isn’t it? Oregon snow pack going to be gone by new year’s too.

Seems insane that is going to warm up to mid and upper 50's during xmas week. 

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6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12z UKMET days 5 and 6. Wow, trough digs deeper and straight down from Canada.

AA5F389A-C311-44BE-9952-46DB9CBFD5C5.gif.31cadee6cffae81d953b3e4aee80dcf9.gif

35F58F0F-1414-4F95-8B98-0D77C7C03B34.gif.2e6522ae421ca886f45c0fc7077b86d5.gif

That is a big eastward shift from its 00Z run.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, MWG said:

Seems insane that is going to warm up to mid and upper 50's during xmas week. 

So many things we thought this winter could be which we now know it won’t be.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

westward? This was the 0z from 12 hours between the two pictures
GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

Eastward in the big picture... the ridge is stronger.   Probably why its colder.  The 12Z UKMET actually looks sort of similar to the 12Z GFS at 144 hours with a sharper ridge and less troughing over the GOA.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1624000 (1).png

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Looks good though, much colder air. 

4C14155C-10DF-4290-8137-53F8B3E7C7F5.thumb.png.21f0c47d897030d73a4312c240688960.png

68CE1615-0C9D-4B46-9ADF-6021BAECFFB0.thumb.png.f024de2160c24177bcd19255c09e13ce.png

Yes... that is a different view.    It does have more cold air plunging south.    Definite improvement on those maps. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ukmet now my model of choice.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Doinko said:

Wow that's a significant improvement. How accurate is the UKMET?

I have noticed the ECMWF often goes in the same direction as the UKMET... so we will see soon!  

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Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

Take a look at the three models at day 6. The UKMET is amazing compared to where the GFS and GEM are at.
500h_anom.conus.png

500h_anom.conus.png
500h_anom.conus.png

No question... waaaaay better.

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2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Based on 5 day model verification scores they say it’s 2nd most accurate only behind the EURO.

I think there a very good chance the 12Z ECMWF picks up on what the 12Z UKMET is showing.

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2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

UKMET/JMA/ICON vs GFS/GEM. Where does the EURO go…image.gif.1b3be235107d8209365f57e1124d0428.gif

If we count the JMA then the score is 3-2 with colder winning.  

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