PNW December 2022 - Part II

[ShawniganLake]

Wow. GEFS went much colder for early next week. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

1 minute ago, Chris said:

WTF?  GFS actually the highest one time?

It had its one moment of glory! Here's a link to the website. It's pretty nifty what you can look at for the verification scores.
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/acc/?fbclid=IwAR29PovDJFtKbWM2L_E3pgf3XX9o8dX1uNgOlM99ZM109qYznw2h4NE00_o

[Nov1985]

3 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

It had its one moment of glory! Here's a link to the website. It's pretty nifty what you can look at for the verification scores.
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/acc/?fbclid=IwAR29PovDJFtKbWM2L_E3pgf3XX9o8dX1uNgOlM99ZM109qYznw2h4NE00_o

ECMWF crushes no matter what metric you pivot. That's funny.

[Doinko]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think there a very good chance the 12Z ECMWF picks up on what the 12Z UKMET is showing.

It looks kind of similar to some of those previous colder Euro runs with that weak ridge driving the cold air south

[ShawniganLake]

Ukmet shows 850s dropping to -19C around the Bellingham with sub zero low temps.  No widespread snowstorm. But some spotty accumulation and probably a big c zone north of Seattle 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Ukmet shows 850s dropping to -19C around the Bellingham with sun zero low temps.  No widespread snowstorm. But some spotty accumulation and probably a big c zone north of Seattle 

Holy crap.  

Will the ECMWF bring back the historic cold solution?    We will know in about 45 minutes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In other news the GFS finally stops torching in the long range.

[ShawniganLake]

Environment Canada is all in with Fraser outflow setting up later Saturday. Current forecast for Abbotsford 

[jakerepp]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Environment Canada is all in with Fraser outflow setting up later Saturday. Current forecast for Abbotsford 

High of -9 C? That's cold!

[Phishy Wx]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ICON and UKMET were vastly improved... although in totally different ways.

GFS and GEM were worse. 

The score is 2-2 so far!

Germans and the Brits go Euro

 

North America is on its on

 

this is like the World Cup of Wx

[Poulsbo Snowman]

People are getting pretty desperate looking at the UK and ICON for their answers.  Might as well pull out the North Korea model--I'm sure they have one.  It's called model riding for a reason.  And everyone here keeps coming back for more, no matter the solutions because they have that little childhood hope in them.  I love it!

I think this is going to work out just fine for most--although I am getting really concerned about ZR for a few locations.  For me, not so much.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Made it all the way down to 24 this morning. Everything was coated in a layer of white earlier thanks to the freezing fog. Still just 30 degrees. Nice to see this cold episode achieving so far.

Also nice to see the models possibly start to tiptoe in a better direction this morning. Even if we could stick with the overall chilly theme we’ve been in for a little while longer without a massive, long lasting warm up I’d consider it a win.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

High of -9 C? That's cold!

The coldest day last December had a high of -12C there. 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

People are getting pretty desperate looking at the UK and ICON for their answers.  Might as well pull out the North Korea model--I'm sure they have one.  It's called model riding for a reason.  And everyone here keeps coming back for more, no matter the solutions because they have that little childhood hope in them.  I love it!

I think this is going to work out just fine for most--although I am getting really concerned about ZR for a few locations.  For me, not so much.

Ukie is actually fairly accurate.  I'm not keen on its strengths/weaknesses but it does ok.  ICON, meh

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

People are getting pretty desperate looking at the UK and ICON for their answers.  Might as well pull out the North Korea model--I'm sure they have one.  It's called model riding for a reason.  And everyone here keeps coming back for more, no matter the solutions because they have that little childhood hope in them.  I love it!

I think this is going to work out just fine for most--although I am getting really concerned about ZR for a few locations.  For me, not so much.

I think most people just default to the GFS because it’s easiest to find the most data on for everyone.  But a lot of the other models, JMA, UKmet etc actually have similar or even better skill scores. 

[Prairiedog]

7 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Actually hoping its an outlier..... As much as I love extreme weather, no thanks on this one.

Hoping as well.  The last one was incredibly destructive.  Really not interested in another couple weeks without electricity and all the local property damage.  It was enormous.  At least I got to watch all my old DVD shows like 24, Band of Brothers, Seinfeld, etc.  worse ice storm i've ever encountered in my 72 years, 

[BLI snowman]

32 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

It had its one moment of glory! Here's a link to the website. It's pretty nifty what you can look at for the verification scores.
https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid_all_models/acc/?fbclid=IwAR29PovDJFtKbWM2L_E3pgf3XX9o8dX1uNgOlM99ZM109qYznw2h4NE00_o

I guess when you throw enough completely different solutions at the wall every day, eventually one of them will land and be right.

Edited December 15, 2022 by BLI snowman

[SouthHillFrosty]

Major snowstorm for our boi @Phil

 

 

[Cloud]

11 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

People are getting pretty desperate looking at the UK and ICON for their answers.  Might as well pull out the North Korea model--I'm sure they have one.  It's called model riding for a reason.  And everyone here keeps coming back for more, no matter the solutions because they have that little childhood hope in them.  I love it!

I think this is going to work out just fine for most--although I am getting really concerned about ZR for a few locations.  For me, not so much.

I don't think people are desperate in looking for answers through these models. Most distinctively look at the GFS and Euro while the others gets overlooked. I think in times like these, models consensus are important, so use all the available resources. You can go on social media and you'll occasionally see the professionals reference other models on potential big events outside of the GFS and Euro. 

[TacomaWx]

Not quite below freezing at home this morning low of 33. 34 now. We will see where the euro puts us but even if it improves we need to see a lot more consistency across the board on all models. Figured we would be locking in by now but we’re not even close. 

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Major snowstorm for our boi @Phil

 

 

lol my mother in SC is already asking if we will have snow at xmas (I'm I bringing it with me) lol

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 29 after a low of 26 this morning. 

[BLI snowman]

Seems like every year the model battles get crazier. Maybe my memory is just getting foggy, but to see such dramatic synoptic disagreements run after run for 4-5 days out is always crazy. 

Of course when we're on the very peripheral edges of things like this, we also notice the small changes more since any change at all can have big implications for us westsiders. 

[Seattle]

SEA got down to 30 this morning. It was very frosty when I woke up, with a decent amount still around at 10 AM. Not bad! Hoping it hits the upper 20s tonight.

[xfkirsten]

I feel like when I open up the forum in the morning, I can tell whether winter is on or cancelled by how many pages have been added overnight.

[bishbish777]

In ICON we believe!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 27 at PDX, their coldest of the season so far. 24 at VUO.

[MWG]

We are back down to 30F with some mist our high for today so far is 34F.

[Cloud]

Seems to be cold air is advancing slightly further south already at day 2. 

[Prairiedog]

I am so glad that finally we have this nailed down.  No more confusion. 

Portland Nws:  
Uncertainty in the forecast does increase substantially early next
week as about 30% of ensemble guidance builds a low amplitude
shortwave ridge back northward over the region to result in
temperatures moderating considerably while some light valley rain and
mountain snow fall across the region. Approximately half of the
ensemble guidance nudges the cold air over southwestern Canada far
enough south that a stronger front sets up over the region,
potentially stalling or moving quite slowly, and thus resulting in a
more substantial round of precipitation with QPF values in excess of
an inch.  However, only 5-10% of ensemble solutions would result in
this precipitation falling in the form of substantial lowland snow.
Finally about 20% of the ensemble guidance actually pushes a more
substantial backdoor front through the Columbia Basin and
southwestward into the region. This would result in the region
cooling off further while only resulting in some spotty light snow
accumulations across the lower elevations..

The number of possibilities temperature and precipitation wise grows
even further during the middle to latter half of next week. About 40%
of the ensemble guidance suggests the area will moderate and
gradually dry out from south to north as shortwave ridging builds
northward over the Pacific Northwest. Another 20% of ensemble
guidance suggests a broader shortwave ridge will build over the
western US in general, but will leave the area open to a mild
atmospheric river event. Another 30% of ensemble guidance leaves us
in a cool and moist pattern in which a smaller subset of ensemble
members actually have the cold air and moisture overlap enough for
lowland snow. Finally, 10% of the ensemble guidance takes the cold
air over southern Canada earlier in the week and drops it solidly
into the Inland Northwest, northern Great Basin and Rocky Mountain
states. This would bring a period of dry weather, but significantly
colder temperatures to the region as cold air spills through the
Columbia River Gorge. High temperatures under such a scenario would
likely stay in the 30s and low temperatures would almost certainly
drop down into the teens at many locations, particularly away from
the east winds blowing out of the Gorge. A small subset of ensemble
members suggest colder scenarios, but these are very much in the
minority. /Neuman

[Mid Valley Duck]

At day 3 the trough is slightly more to the ESE and isnt elongating as much to the west.

[joelgombiner]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem hit 24. Good to see. 

[TacomaWx]

No major changes through hour 84…were 1C cooler at 850mb though. 

[Deweydog]

Starting to think my old man was right about big warm cloud blankets. No blanket last night and things got COLD!

[Mid Valley Duck]

Huge differences between the Euro and GFS at day 4.5

[joelgombiner]

Trending to less cold air over the ocean. Block not as tilted. 

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Trough elongating and sliding east. This wont look like the UKMET at all. 

 

[Cloud]

This sucker is sliding east.. that's game. 

And the GFS wanted to go in that direction all along. 

[BLI snowman]

Pretty blah.