PNW December 2022 - Part II

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

52 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

People are getting pretty desperate looking at the UK and ICON for their answers.  Might as well pull out the North Korea model--I'm sure they have one.  It's called model riding for a reason.  And everyone here keeps coming back for more, no matter the solutions because they have that little childhood hope in them.  I love it!

I think this is going to work out just fine for most--although I am getting really concerned about ZR for a few locations.  For me, not so much.

You want the Korean model?  I'll give you the Korean model

 

[TacomaWx]

Looks like the king fell on his own sword! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The old slide east trick. Game is far from over though.

[Cloud]

Pain.. 

Alright.. everyone take a break and check back in a few days. 

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

925mb temps are 11 degrees warmer by Tuesday night on the 12Z ECMWF compared to its 00Z run.    My faith in the King is waning.

 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

925mb temps are 11 degrees warmer by Tuesday night on the 12Z ECMWF compared to its 00Z run.    My faith in the King is waning.

 

We mocked the GFS but it may be the one leading the way here. It was all on its own. Wow. 

Still time for a turnaround, but I'm doubting. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Starting to think my old man was right about big warm cloud blankets. No blanket last night and things got COLD!

Must be why nights were so cold during our basically cloudless July and August.

[MikeInEverett]

The other models this morning showing some signs of hope was like getting a couple touchdowns late in the game but you’re still down by 7. The Euro was the onside kick attempt and the other team recovered. 

[Deweydog]

Pretty “fun” to compare the European GFS’s solution for next Wednesday morning compared to 48 hours ago.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cloud said:

We mocked the GFS but it may be the one leading the way here. It was all on its own. Wow. 

Still time for a turnaround, but I'm doubting. 

Yeah I’m not expecting this to end up good south of Everett now. The euro was the main thing giving me some hope this would work out but it looks pretty lost now. 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per 12Z ECMWF... I guess there is some lowland snow.   But what a joke compared to the previous runs.

[FroYoBro]

USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA

[Cascadia_Wx]

We don’t even make it past the solstice before the brutal torching starts on this run. Disgusting.

[Cloud]

At least now we don't have to worry about major overrunning events and ice storms. This run is heading towards mid-50s for Christmas. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA

[runninthruda206]

Pain

[joelgombiner]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty “fun” to compare the European GFS’s solution for next Wednesday morning compared to 48 hours ago.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark has something to say. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Must be why nights were so cold during our basically cloudless July and August.

It was pretty blankety on 8/18. Imagine a summer full of that!

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

 

 

Oh boy!!!

[TT-SEA]

View this morning... and what is left of our snow cover.   Pretty pathetic now.

[Christensen87]

Gotta say, the CFS had been showing the same thing all along too. No signs of us getting cold again through mid January. 

[Perturbed Member]

The Euro went from showing -21c 850mb temps and 40 inches of snow in SEA to this garbage. Pretty nasty. 

Fair to say the GFS crushed the king this round even though all the models have been far from perfect. The Euro behaved more like the 18z GFS than what we've come to expect from it. Pretty disappointing. 

[GobBluth]

Going from valley snow and a major Cascade accumulation to a pineapple express wasn't the pivot I expected.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The Euro went from showing -21c 850mb temps and 40 inches of snow in SEA to this garbage. Pretty nasty. 

Fair to say the GFS crushed the king this round even though all the models have been far from perfect. The Euro behaved more like the 18z GFS than what we've come to expect from it. Pretty disappointing. 

I think all the models struggle with the warming climate to one degree or the other. Maybe what the Euro showed a few days ago would have actually happened 40 years ago. I’d imagine it must have past events and pattern progressions factored in to its algorithm.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The Euro went from showing -21c 850mb temps and 40 inches of snow in SEA to this garbage. Pretty nasty. 

Fair to say the GFS crushed the king this round even though all the models have been far from perfect. The Euro behaved more like the 18z GFS than what we've come to expect from it. Pretty disappointing. 

Pretty big points for the GFS.. it may be a bit aggressive in pulling the trough east, but in the bigger scale, it may have gotten this pattern right. Still hasn't happened yet, but early next week's stuff is DOA.. 

[TT-SEA]

Warming climate but somehow arctic air still makes it to Florida.   

Yes the climate is warming.   But I think that is just an easy answer.   This was a very volatile situation for the models to handle and the same thing could have happened 100 years ago with this pattern.    

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The Euro went from showing -21c 850mb temps and 40 inches of snow in SEA to this garbage. Pretty nasty. 

Fair to say the GFS crushed the king this round even though all the models have been far from perfect. The Euro behaved more like the 18z GFS than what we've come to expect from it. Pretty disappointing. 

Given the complexity of the progression, I’d give the GFS a solid B at this point. It was late to the game when it came to the strong retrogression but once it did it hasn’t done too bad with the big picture. 

[Snownerd3000]

[fubario]

You get a number from a hot girl. You call her (waiting 3 days per the movie Swingers). You have a very nice chat ending with a date plan for the following week. You're on cloud 9. She's texts you "sorry, can we push out our date a couple days?..something came up." "No problem", you say, but, you're a tad nervous. No contact from her following few days.. so you text her to confirm the date. "Yes!", she says. You're stoked! You plan the date and let your mind wander "what could be". 2 days before the date you text with details of the date. ..No response. Uh oh. Wait a day...text again. No answer...

This is where we are right now.

[Deweydog]

Walter is not pleased. He’s ready for spring.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Given the complexity of the progression, I’d give the GFS a solid B at this point. It was late to the game when it came to the strong retrogression but once it did it hasn’t done too bad with the big picture. 

Over the years you've talked about forcing and i never understood up until a few years ago how important it is.

 

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

View this morning... and what is left of our snow cover.   Pretty pathetic now.

Similar to here. Lots in the shady areas. Not much left in the exposed and sunny areas. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Over the years you've talked about forcing and i never understood up until a few years ago how important it is.

 

Matt really has a sixth sense about this stuff.    Its not perfect... but he sees things all the time that I don't catch or fully understand.

[Nov1985]

If they take away my Sunday night snow I'll set the models on fire! 

 

 

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Given the complexity of the progression, I’d give the GFS a solid B at this point. It was late to the game when it came to the strong retrogression but once it did it hasn’t done too bad with the big picture. 

GFS performed better in the late November snow too.  The King has its pluses including better lower level detail but this def is going to make me give pause in January when we get our next chance to at face value say its solution is the best.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

10 minutes ago, fubario said:

You get a number from a hot girl. You call her (waiting 3 days per the movie Swingers). You have a very nice chat ending with a date plan for the following week. You're on cloud 9. She's texts you "sorry, can we push out our date a couple days?..something came up." "No problem", you say, but, you're a tad nervous. No contact from her following few days.. so you text her to confirm the date. "Yes!", she says. You're stoked! You plan the date and let your mind wander "what could be". 2 days before the date you text with details of the date. ..No response. Uh oh. Wait a day...text again. No answer...

This is where we are right now.

Never experienced that problem.  The hot girls never ever gave me their number--even my wife (who is still hot) didn't give me her number.  I had to look it up in the phonebook 37 years ago.

[Cold Snap]

Well the King has officially betrayed us. Can’t wait for the GFS to be laughing in our faces in a couple of days when it goes back to showing 20” fantasy snow maps.

[BLI snowman]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

View this morning... and what is left of our snow cover.   Pretty pathetic now.

The dream has turned into a nightmare.