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PNW December 2022 - Part II


Guest hawkstwelve

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Hopefully we get a nice back door blast in a few weeks. Seems like the only thing we can pull off these days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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You really can’t get any worse than what the Euro is showing December 21st through Christmas. Unbroken temps of 50 or higher, day and night. Close to 60 Christmas Eve. Not enough rain to even be impressive in the lowlands but definitely enough to take a bite out of our nice Cascade snowpack.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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24 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

The Euro went from showing -21c 850mb temps and 40 inches of snow in SEA to this garbage. Pretty nasty. 

Fair to say the GFS crushed the king this round even though all the models have been far from perfect. The Euro behaved more like the 18z GFS than what we've come to expect from it. Pretty disappointing. 

istockphoto-471193998-612x612.jpg

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A forum for the end of the world.

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14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Given the complexity of the progression, I’d give the GFS a solid B at this point. It was late to the game when it came to the strong retrogression but once it did it hasn’t done too bad with the big picture. 

Any thoughts or gut feeling on what comes next if we completely miss the boat on this? Would be nice if this is followed up by more chances at something. Sure would be nice to have a decent January for once. 

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5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Well the King has officially betrayed us. Can’t wait for the GFS to be laughing in our faces in a couple of days when it goes back to showing 20” fantasy snow maps.

I think it's possible that the GFS does decently well with large scale patterns but is still horrific with surface details... at least in the PNW.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I get the lamenting for the upcoming BSF/+EPO hell that is about to commence in a week, but isn't this the first time we've seen that kind of pattern all cool season? It's not like our Nov/Dec has been defined by it.

Besides, how the hell do you go all winter without any SW flow and AR "fun"? Like even for just a week or so out of the whole season? Going through late Dec without it is impressive.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Any thoughts or gut feeling on what comes next if we completely miss the boat on this? Would be nice if this is followed up by more chances at something. Sure would be nice to have a decent January for once. 

This should be a good sign for January.   Unless we are sticking with the 2005 analog and we are stuck in +EPO hell.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Also... The operational Euro run should be treated like one memeber of a 51-member ensemble cast, amongst a sea of other ensemble suites. It's not the be-all-end-all. It sucks to lose it, but all models are flailing right now.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I will bet a round of of drinks Both the euro and gfs start spitting out crazy runs like a few days ago starting tomorrow night.

I’ll take the bet that they won’t. 🫱🫲

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1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Any thoughts or gut feeling on what comes next if we completely miss the boat on this? Would be nice if this is followed up by more chances at something. Sure would be nice to have a decent January for once. 

Just recently I’ve got the feeling we might see a pretty decent January for once. It will NOT however be 31 days of winter bliss. I really don’t think this period westerlies is gonna persist all that long. The 2005 comparison is fun just for the fact there are at least currently some spooky similarities since the mid mowvember period, but I suspect we break good from it pretty quickly. Maybe a nice “traditional” retrogression…

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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27 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think all the models struggle with the warming climate to one degree or the other. Maybe what the Euro showed a few days ago would have actually happened 40 years ago. I’d imagine it must have past events and pattern progressions factored in to its algorithm.

Still would have needed the block to be more stable 40 years ago.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

He never even got to witness a top tier Arctic outbreak. 😢

He loved the snow like you wouldn’t believe, although it was annoying AF. Anytime we drove anywhere with snow on the ground he’d be chirping and vibrating non-stop. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I wish. Been nearly 9 years since our last one. That's over 1/10 of our lives wasted on mediocre backdoor action.

My expectations are super low. Something like last February would make me happy!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Also... The operational Euro run should be treated like one memeber of a 51-member ensemble cast, amongst a sea of other ensemble suites. It's not the be-all-end-all. It sucks to lose it, but all models are flailing right now.

Yeah in retrospect, the fact that those wild operational Euro runs never really had much buy in from the EPS should have been taken more seriously. 

The Euro is pretty hard to beat once the OP and the EPS really lock in on a solution but we never had that this time. 

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Still would have needed the block to be more stable 40 years ago.

And the ECMWF shows freezing temps down to Orlando and 30s in Miami.    The cold was just re-directed.    The climate is warming and certain patterns are inherently challenging for the models... both are true.

ecmwf-deterministic-florida-t2m_f-1883200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Any thoughts or gut feeling on what comes next if we completely miss the boat on this? Would be nice if this is followed up by more chances at something. Sure would be nice to have a decent January for once. 

Monday's weeklies shows a good pattern for snow /cold mid to late January 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Just recently I’ve got the feeling we might see a pretty decent January for once. It will NOT however be 31 days of winter bliss. I really don’t think this period westerlies is gonna persist all that long. The 2005 comparison is fun just for the fact there are at least currently some spooky similarities since the mid mowvember period, but I suspect we break good from it pretty quickly. Maybe a nice “traditional” retrogression…

So frozen lakes are out of the question? 

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

So frozen lakes are out of the question? 

How big we talking?

For instance, our bird bath this morning was something that would have made D*ck Proenneke retreat to lower latitudes.

Edited by Deweydog
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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And the ECMWF shows freezing temps down to Orlando and 30s in Miami.    The cold was just re-directed.    The climate is warming and certain patterns are inherently challenging for the models... both are true.

ecmwf-deterministic-florida-t2m_f-1883200.png

Gulf of Mexico snowstorm!!

036077D6-A219-45DE-8F59-0096179EA5E7.png

4D1BBF01-49CE-42C8-9A56-516010E3FAE0.png

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32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Given the complexity of the progression, I’d give the GFS a solid B at this point. It was late to the game when it came to the strong retrogression but once it did it hasn’t done too bad with the big picture. 

I'd like to believe this means the upgrade actually was. I really would.

But I'd bet it was a) the pattern played more to the model's strengths, b) blind luck or c) Tonga has us in upside down world.

My mind is open, though! Perhaps this marks a pivotal moment in Goofus History.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Still would have needed the block to be more stable 40 years ago.

Well there is clearly some reason it’s been over three decades since our last major regional airmass. And it goes beyond blocking not being stable enough or whatever the laundry list of reasons every brush with a major airmass has failed to penetrate in recent decades. I feel like a big issue is airmasses have lost the ability to force the upper level pattern the way they used to. 

I feel like a lot of folks here view the warming climate more linear, like we can still get all the same patterns but they will just be a degree or two warmer. I feel like it’s not too much of a stretch to imagine it would go beyond that and it change the pattern tendencies themselves. Anyway, admittedly a lot of this is above my pay grade, I’m just throwing ideas at the wall. But I don’t think it should be so swiftly dismissed. The proof is in our observed weather and how it’s changed over the decades, across all seasons.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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32 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Well there is clearly some reason it’s been over three decades since our last major regional airmass. And it goes beyond blocking not being stable enough or whatever the laundry list of reasons every brush with a major airmass has failed to penetrate in recent decades. I feel like a big issue is airmasses have lost the ability to force the upper level pattern the way they used to. 

I feel like a lot of folks here view the warming climate more linear, like we can still get all the same patterns but they will just be a degree or two warmer. I feel like it’s not too much of a stretch to imagine it would go beyond that and it change the pattern tendencies themselves. Anyway, admittedly a lot of this is above my pay grade, I’m just throwing ideas at the wall. But I don’t think it should be so swiftly dismissed. The proof is in our observed weather and how it’s changed over the decades, across all seasons.

The 114 degree day i had is all the proof i need that something has changed. Still makes me sick to even think of that day.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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43 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Probably a good time to take a ~2 month break from the models until we have reason look at them again circa February 10.

I’m sure early to mid April will deliver a nice event. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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44 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:
Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Still decent event for WW on the table. Nothing historic. Hoping for something better in JAN.1674000000-rAfVqeWSmNw.png1671861600-lgWEBOoMADM.png

I have 3 separate trips I have to take in late January, so sure why not. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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