TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Parade of aquatic monsters. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/12ABBE93-C0C6-4648-BF0C-DEB8DE160F7D_zpssbn9h3hm.png Charleston! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 12Z ECMWF control run shows the trough next weekend as well... then returns to warm ridging fairly quickly. 12Z EPS is much weaker with the trough and we just stay in flat ridging for the rest of the run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Charleston!A lot more re-curves on the latest EPS, so you might still be able to retire there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 A lot more re-curves on the latest EPS, so you might still be able to retire there. just go's with the idea that it's way to early to be sure right now.anything from florda to new england to out to sea are all on the table with this being 7 to 10 days away it really any body guess at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 95/45 so far at RDM today. Nice 50 degree swing there. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Mark going with 100 for tomorrow. Pretty ballsy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Mark going with 100 for tomorrow. Pretty ballsy.97. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 97.MOS special!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Has no one made a forecast contest yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Mark going with 100 for tomorrow. Pretty ballsy.Tomorrow looks a lot like a slightly warmer version of 9/2/2003. We'll have slightly higher 500mb heights so we should do better than 94...but not by much. It's otherwise essentially a redux in terms of calendar, ridge position, 850's, and surface winds during the afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Has no one made a forecast contest yet?Everyone has not. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 MOS special!!!I'll take your word for it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 97/6093/6198/62101/6295/64 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted September 1, 2017 Report Share Posted September 1, 2017 Tomorrow looks a lot like a slightly warmer version of 9/2/2003. We'll have slightly higher 500mb heights so we should do better than 94...but not by much. It's otherwise essentially a redux in terms of calendar, ridge position, 850's, and surface winds during the afternoon. 850s do look a degree or so warmer and 500mb heights at 592ish vs ~588, but yeah, 100 would be a big overachievement. Tuesday is still the best bet for September triple digits. Also the 18z completely owns NYC. Hopefully that does not happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 850s do look a degree or so warmer and 500mb heights at 592ish vs ~588, but yeah, 100 would be a big overachievement. Tuesday is still the best bet for September triple digits. Also the 18z completely owns NYC. Hopefully that does not happen.I'm banking on tomorrow staying around 25.0-25.5C. Both the GFS and NAM have trended in that direction. That's right where 9/2/2003 landed as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 More forever-ridgeish members on the 18z ensembles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Hillsboro mixed out pretty well. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 About the dead opposite of the Euro at that time. It still has a massive ridge over us with 850s in the low-mid 20s at day 10. There was also a surprising amount of support for the 00z's longer lived ridge solution on the EPS.It's called climate change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Mark going with 100 for tomorrow. Pretty ballsy. Not Marks forecast... Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Hillsboro mixed out pretty well. Toasty! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 When does snow_wizard start chiming in on here? I noticed he's been absent since late spring. I actually take interest in his forsight and input. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 It's called climate change. No... its called a September ridge. It happens. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 No... its called a September ridge. It happens.This isn't a very run of the mill September ridge, to be fair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Hillsboro mixed out pretty well.Mixed out?! I thought inversion season didn't start until after Kwanzaa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 0Z NAM sticking to its guns. 25c/593dm and 94 @ 4pm...translating to a high of 96 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 0Z NAM sticking to its guns. 25c/593dm and 94 @ 4pm...translating to a high of 96 or so. While the 00z GFS also says 96 tomorrow. 850 temp only tops out at 24c though. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Mixed out?! I thought inversion season didn't start until after Kwanzaa.I doubt Salem and Eugene get out of the 30's tomorrow. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 I doubt Salem and Eugene get out of the 30's tomorrow. Celsius? Very good call. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 While the 00z GFS also says 96 tomorrow. 850 temp only tops out at 24c though. Interestingly, this afternoon's sounding over SLE already showed 24.8C and 595dm heights overhead. Both were higher than modeled for today. Maybe tomorrow will continue the trend...won't take much of a tweak upward to push us into the 98 degree range. Even today, MMV hit 97 and HIO 96. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 The ever-trusty MOS guidance is spitting out 4 straight 100's for SLE and EUG for tomorrow through Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 No smoke is shown for most of the area all the way through Sunday... much better than I anticipated. It will also not be factor in limiting temperatures the next 2 days. This is Sunday evening... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Impressive 87.1 average maximum last month @ PDX. The top-5 now looks like this: 88.1 in Aug 196787.5 in Jul 198587.1 in Aug 201786.7 in Jul 201586.5 in Jul 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 00Z ECMWF at 192 hours... a trough approaching us with some rain and a major hurricane approaching Florida. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 00Z ECMWF is quite troughy and wet after day 7. And takes a 932mb hurricane right into Charleston on day 10. That would make Harvey look like childs play. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 00Z ECMWF is quite troughy and wet after day 7. And takes a 932mb hurricane right into Charleston on day 10. That would make Harvey look like childs play. Harvey was 937mb at landfall and strengthening, which makes a difference. The size of Irma is such that its surge is likely to be greater for whoever it may impact. Rainfall won't be anything like Harvey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Harvey was 937mb at landfall and strengthening, which makes a difference. The size of Irma is such that its surge is likely to be greater for whoever it may impact. Rainfall won't be anything like Harvey.Still awaiting the EPS, but the GFS is a monster too, and all but one GEFS member makes landfall. Gets down to 893mb on the GFS before landfalling as a cat4. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Some estimates estimate Harvey's economic cost will be more than Katrina and Ike combined. Hundreds of billions of dollars by most projections. We're gonna go into serious debt at this rate. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Still awaiting the EPS, but the GFS is a monster too, and all but one GEFS member makes landfall. Gets down to 893mb on the GFS before landfalling as a cat4. Yeah, GFS insists on a landfall: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Still awaiting the EPS, but the GFS is a monster too, and all but one GEFS member makes landfall. Gets down to 893mb on the GFS before landfalling as a cat4. Yeah, it's definitely looking more likely than not that it makes a U.S. landfall at this point. Also looking much more likely than not that it at least gets to higher-end Cat 4 strength. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 2, 2017 Report Share Posted September 2, 2017 Harvey was 937mb at landfall and strengthening, which makes a difference. The size of Irma is such that its surge is likely to be greater for whoever it may impact. Rainfall won't be anything like Harvey.Ahhhh... good to know. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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