September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[wx_statman]

Just depends on how you look at it. Could be a miss or a get by the thinnest of margins. I was sorta joking by calling it "cheap".

 

Cheap...lucky. Whatever you want to call it, we've definitely had good fortune in keeping this streak alive. We've landed on exactly 75 a few times already.

[Jesse]

Cheap...lucky. Whatever you want to call it, we've definitely had good fortune in keeping this streak alive. We've landed on exactly 75 a few times already.

I wonder what the 76+ record is?

[wx_statman]

I wonder what the 76+ record is?

 

I could probably find out

[wx_statman]

#59 alive. Reached at 5:02...not surprising considering we had already hit 74.3 at 5:00. Would have been pretty nutty if we stopped just short.

[Deweydog]

#59 alive. Reached at 5:02...not surprising considering we had already hit 74.3 at 5:00. Would have been pretty nutty if we stopped just short.

This b*tch needs to die.

[Front Ranger]

Cheap...lucky. Whatever you want to call it, we've definitely had good fortune in keeping this streak alive. We've landed on exactly 75 a few times already.

 

A suspicious number of times, in fact. Hmmm....

[wx_statman]

This b*tch needs to die.

 

Someday...

[wx_statman]

A suspicious number of times, in fact. Hmmm....

 

5th today. 6th lucky escape if we count the 9/8 sunbreak special that got us 76...

[DareDuck]

#westsidelowlandsaretheonlythingthatmatters

That's true if you want to sacrifice the accuracy of your statements.

[Jesse]

Someday...

Sunday.

[Kayla]

#59 alive. Reached at 5:02...not surprising considering we had already hit 74.3 at 5:00. Would have been pretty nutty if we stopped just short.

 

Crazy that they pulled that one off today under a pretty decent trough. A whooping -1 departure on the day and right back to positive departures over the next 3 days.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like after getting just .02 in the last 3 months... it will be dumping rain during the Seahawks home opener on Sunday afternoon and pretty much just during the game.   The front is past and Seattle is back in the rain shadow by evening.  

[Deweydog]

Looks like after getting just .02 in the last 3 months... it will be dumping rain during the Seahawks home opener on Sunday afternoon and pretty much just during the game. The front is past and Seattle is back in the rain shadow by evening.

Nothing slows down a high-octane, run-and-gun, quick-strike, well-oiled machine offense better than a yuppie-debilitating early-fall rain storm.

[stuffradio]

The JAMSTEC is giving us a -PDO in DJF and colder than normal winter too.

 

[TT-SEA]

Nothing slows down a high-octane, run-and-gun, quick-strike, well-oiled machine offense better than a yuppie-debilitating early-fall rain storm.

 

Lots of adjectives!   

 

Good job Matty.  

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we are back in the situation where the models underestimate the speed of systems and the jet stream.   This was common last spring.  

 

Everything is moving faster with each run.  

[Deweydog]

Incredible -PNA pattern!

 

#oldschool

#boxingday2016modelcommentrehash

[Kayla]

Gotta love that retrogression on the 00z GFS for this early in the season.

[stuffradio]

JB posted a picture of the ECMWF seasonal on his premium blog today for DJF initiated in September, and it shows above normal 2m temp departures for DJF over most of North America except Alberta, Saskatchewan and the SW corner of Manitoba. Having said that, the ECMWF seasonal also shows most of North America would have higher than normal pressure except there's a big trough centered over BC and plows a bit into WA and the NE corner of Oregon. Think about last years 500mb pattern except the direction is exactly opposite. The Euro Sea level pressure is deepest over the aleutians and it is a bit more shallow into southern BC and into WA/Oregon and continues a straight line into Texas.

[TT-SEA]

JB posted a picture of the ECMWF seasonal on his premium blog today for DJF initiated in September, and it shows above normal 2m temp departures for DJF over most of North America except Alberta, Saskatchewan and the SW corner of Manitoba. Having said that, the ECMWF seasonal also shows most of North America would have higher than normal pressure except there's a big trough centered over BC and plows a bit into WA and the NE corner of Oregon. Think about last years 500mb pattern except the direction is exactly opposite. The Euro Sea level pressure is deepest over the aleutians and it is a bit more shallow into southern BC and into WA/Oregon and continues a straight line into Texas.

 

Available on WeatherBell?

 

I have no idea what to make of this very long explanation.   

 

Last winter was the wettest ever recorded... so complete opposite would be nice.   But I doubt that is what you meant.  

[Phil]

JB posted a picture of the ECMWF seasonal on his premium blog today for DJF initiated in September, and it shows above normal 2m temp departures for DJF over most of North America except Alberta, Saskatchewan and the SW corner of Manitoba. Having said that, the ECMWF seasonal also shows most of North America would have higher than normal pressure except there's a big trough centered over BC and plows a bit into WA and the NE corner of Oregon. Think about last years 500mb pattern except the direction is exactly opposite. The Euro Sea level pressure is deepest over the aleutians and it is a bit more shallow into southern BC and into WA/Oregon and continues a straight line into Texas.

Yeah, it has a huge +EPO. Almost looks like a black hole over the NE Pacific on the SV maps.

 

The NPAC jet is surprisingly far south, though. Above normal precipitation across the SW US, PNW, and south central US.

[stuffradio]

Available on WeatherBell?

 

I have no idea what to make of this very long explanation.   

 

Last winter was the wettest ever recorded... so complete opposite would be nice.   But I doubt that is what you meant.  

He says he's still leaving the idea of 133% of above normal snow for us this winter.

[TT-SEA]

He says he's still leaving the idea of 133% of above normal snow for us this winter.

 

Its all a crapshoot.   I don't really care if he says record setting snowfall or the warmest winter in history.   He has no idea.  

[snow_wizard]

He says he's still leaving the idea of 133% of above normal snow for us this winter.

 

With a significant Nina that is a pretty good shot.  I sure hope we can manage some blockiness though.

[snow_wizard]

That trough early next week is looking really chilly at this point.  850s drop to about +1 before the equinox.

[epiceast]

Looks like after getting just .02 in the last 3 months... it will be dumping rain during the Seahawks home opener on Sunday afternoon and pretty much just during the game.   The front is past and Seattle is back in the rain shadow by evening.  

Seattle's 13th man, ensuring a resounding 3-0 victory.

[Phil]

Verbatim, the latest ECMWF seasonal projection is a repeat of 2007/08, except it has an block over NE Canada and an even stronger,more consolidated Pacific jet stream, which plows right from the GOA, into the west coast, then straight into the southern US and NW Gulf of Mexico. Pretty whacked out.

[TT-SEA]

Seattle's 13th man, ensuring a resounding 3-0 victory.

 

You might be right on this one.   Maybe a 9-6 thriller in the slop.  

[stuffradio]

Verbatim, the latest ECMWF seasonal projection is a repeat of 2007/08, except it has an block over NE Canada and an even stronger,more consolidated Pacific jet stream, which plows right from the GOA, into the west coast, then straight into the southern US and NW Gulf of Mexico. Pretty whacked out.

What does that do for us?

[TT-SEA]

What does that do for us?

 

Gives me 150 inches of snow while the Seattle area get almost nothing.  

[TT-SEA]

Despite all the action on the 00Z GFS... it only shows rain on 2 of the next 17 days in the Seattle area.   That is on Sunday and Monday... and Monday just looks showery.  

[wx_statman]

Sunday.

 

Most likely. I'm planning on hiking up to McNeil point on Saturday, so I would prefer the forecast to hold.

[wx_statman]

Crazy that they pulled that one off today under a pretty decent trough. A whooping -1 departure on the day and right back to positive departures over the next 3 days.

 

Heights were still 575 this afternoon. Apparently that's good enough to squeeze out 75 with a mid-September sun angle and 850's at 10c.

[Front Ranger]

Crazy that they pulled that one off today under a pretty decent trough. A whooping -1 departure on the day and right back to positive departures over the next 3 days.

 

-3 at OLM today.

 

#allthatmatters

[Kayla]

-3 at OLM today.

 

#allthatmatters

Not when you pushed all in on PDX!

[Jesse]

Not when you pushed all in on PDX!

After today they will only be about 6 degrees above the previous record warm September.

 

#babysteps

[Jesse]

Most likely. I'm planning on hiking up to McNeil point on Saturday, so I would prefer the forecast to hold.

That's a great hike.

[wx_statman]

That's a great hike.

Yeah, I've been meaning to go back. I did that hike once many years ago.

[Front Ranger]

Not when you pushed all in on PDX!

It's looking good.

[Front Ranger]

After today they will only be about 6 degrees above the previous record warm September.

 

#babysteps

It's a month where averages drop quite a bit from the beginning to the end. Where we are now in relation to the record doesn't mean a whole lot. The remainder of the month will be much cooler than that first week and the average will drop fairly rapidly.