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September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


stuffradio

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If you thought the November jet was strong on the JMA seasonal, check out January. Yikes.

 

Verbatim, would be cool/wet in the PNW, but nothing continental or Arctic with a big +EPO and strong polar vortex.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7B8525CE-D5DD-4A06-934C-455CDA8A9A0C_zpsdb6qybo5.jpg

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If you thought the November jet was strong on the JMA seasonal, check out January. Yikes.

 

Verbatim, would be cool/wet in the PNW, but nothing continental or Arctic with a big +EPO and strong polar vortex.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7B8525CE-D5DD-4A06-934C-455CDA8A9A0C_zpsdb6qybo5.jpg

So more possible chance of windstorms in Nov and Jan with that jet?

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So more possible chance of windstorms in Nov and Jan with that jet?

I would assume so, though I'm not well versed in the particulars of your climate's dynamics. Would be quite stormy, though, which is starting to look like a consensus based on both the seasonal modeling and the aggregate of ENSO/QBO analogs.

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The only years with 13+ named storms in the Atlantic by 9/16 are 1933, 1936, 1995, 2005, 2011, and 2012.

 

Interesting that they all appear to be -QBO/-ENSO, though the QBO reconstructions for the 1930s are less certain.

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Looks like the smoke is back and will be here until the rain starts tomorrow afternoon per the smoke model.  

 

Also seems to be some agreement on a system Wednesday with heavy rain and some wind.    

 

I thought I smelled smoke earlier. But wasn't quite sure. Kind of excited to see the rain tomorrow.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Smoke is terrible today, blots out the sun.  Really looking forward to the end of fire season.

 

Horrible up here too... smoke and high level clouds make for a disgusting day.    This week should put an end to this crap for good.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Horrible up here too... smoke and high level clouds make for a disgusting day.    This week should put an end to this crap for good.  

 

The smoke is pretty evident right now with the sun getting lower. Yellow tint to the sky. I agree it does look disgusting.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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September 11th, 1971. Seven simultaneous tropical cyclones.

Imagine the freak-out from today's climate alarmists if this happened again.http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/61668609-C35C-4B83-9407-00955A24BCFF_zpsnoqkq9su.jpg

I believe Ginger holds the duration record for the Atlantic basin as well? Just going off memory as I'm on my phone and don't feel like looking it up.

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Super smoky here today too. We drove up from Mt. Angel this afternoon after staying overnight down there. It was smoky there, but its even worse up here. 

 

Hard to believe we are only about 24 hours away from a heavy rain event and the beginning of a several day stormy pattern. Probably the most I have anticipated a rain event in a long time. It's nice to know that this is very likely the last smoky day of the year.

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If PDX has average temps the rest of the way, a record warm September will be avoided.

 

If they have temps a degree below normal the rest of the way (not outlandish at all considering how cool the upcoming week will be), it won't even make top 10.

 

Pretty clear signal that the last 7 days of the month will be above average. It's going to take some pretty big negative departures over the next 5 days to offset the positive departures to end the month. 

 

Gonna be close.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Niño-3 is about to hit -1C.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E346D105-F493-42C3-9460-1584CC68614F_zpsbe8smpka.png

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Horrible up here too... smoke and high level clouds make for a disgusting day.    This week should put an end to this crap for good.  

 

No smoke here... Montana ended its fire season even earlier than Portland and Seattle this year.  ;)

 

IMG_4022.JPG

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Global SST anomaly has fallen by ~ 0.4C since March and remains around +0.27C for now, however the pattern going forward will probably drop it down to at least 0.10C over a period of about 6 weeks.

 

global.png

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Very unusual to see a second year La Niña grow stronger than that of the previous year during a -QBO.

 

I think 1984/85 barely meets the criteria, then you have to go back to 1967/68.

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No smoke here... Montana ended its fire season even earlier than Portland and Seattle this year.  ;)

 

attachicon.gifIMG_4022.JPG

 

Ironically... the smoke is coming back your way from here by Monday.    Probably temporary though based on the models.   :)

 

As long as there are fires out here there is a good chance smoke is heading towards Montana.  

 

2017091612_V2017091812Z_gemmach_PM2.5_di

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pretty clear signal that the last 7 days of the month will be above average. It's going to take some pretty big negative departures over the next 5 days to offset the positive departures to end the month.

 

Gonna be close.

I don't think there's any clear signal yet for the last 7 days. The next week of cool weather is much more certain. :)

 

The point was just that it won't take anything remarkable to keep this month out of first place, or even out of the top 10.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Ironically... the smoke is coming back your way from here by Monday.    Probably temporary though based on the models.   :)

 

As long as there are fires out here there is a good chance smoke is heading towards Montana.  

 

2017091612_V2017091812Z_gemmach_PM2.5_di

Does that model take into account falling precipitation though? From what I understand it only uses upper air analysis guidence. Hard to imagine the smoke particles making it that far east when you have widespread falling precipitation. Seems like the particles would be surpressed to areas closer to the fires.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Does that model take into account falling precipitation though? From what I understand it only uses upper air analysis guidence. Hard to imagine the smoke particles making it that far east when you have widespread falling precipitation. Seems like the particles would be surpressed to areas closer to the fires.

 

It should all be gone by mid-week regardless.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ironically... the smoke is coming back your way from here by Monday.    Probably temporary though based on the models.   :)

 

As long as there are fires out here there is a good chance smoke is heading towards Montana.  

 

2017091612_V2017091812Z_gemmach_PM2.5_di

That looks like some light haze to me, not smoke(nothing over 100.0 ppm).

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Smoke is definitely clearing now with these 20mph winds. Pretty cloudy now. 3km NAM showing showers getting to Olympia by 20z.

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_8.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Trades are roaring right over the WPAC warm pool, eroding it via evaporational cooling feedback. Truly the perfect circulation for Jesse/Jim et al, should it continue into winter.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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The area of 30*C+ SSTs in the WPAC has shrunk significantly in recent weeks. In fact, the warmest SSTs on the planet are now found in the Caribbean and west Atlantic.

 

Haven't seen that in awhile.

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Notable SSTA differences between 9/16 and 9/17.

 

- La Niña stronger/more east-based this year.

- High latitudes much colder this year, snow/ice extent greater.

- South Pacific PDO (or "QDO") has flipped negative.

- IOD has reversed sign.

- PDO is actually more positive (for now).

 

2017 (top) vs 2016 (bottom):

 

2017091700_054_G6_global_I_SEASON_tm@lg@

 

2016091300_054_G6_global_I_SEASON_tm@lg@

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12z Euro certainly seems to push back/tone down next week's ridging a little bit. Should still be nice and sunny. Just 70s instead of 80s like the 12z GFS wanted to give us.

 

 

Looks like some stellar September weather after 3 active days.... ECMWF is perfect for the the rest of the run.  

 

Side note... the system on Wednesday morning is shown on the ECMWF surface map to pass right over Seattle with much heavier rain to the south of the track from Olympia to Eugene.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The POAMA seasonal forecast (nailed last winter) is quite disappointing, unless you live in Alaska or maybe Tim's elevation.

 

Strongest +EPO in history?

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7ABEF5B3-85FA-4E9F-8F82-ED562563FB38_zpsba6yxzng.jpg

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Regardless of the modeling, it's becoming clear(er) where the battle lines are going to be drawn this year.

 

The fate of winter 2017/18 will hinge whether we can dislodge a well established +EPO. With a -QBO, the mean NPAC High location will be shifted equatorward, so it will take potent intraseasonal forcing (MJO, or strat attack) to compensate for the low frequency waveguides.

 

If we can avoid additional solar storms and maintain the cold EPAC, the circulation might favor more blocking/less +EPO, so it could be dislodged.

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