September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Solid line of clearing moving in from the west.

Down to 52 at PDX now. Barring some sort of wild overachievement tomorrow a top 10 warm September is probably off the table.

[stuffradio]

00Z GFS is quite ridgy through 240 hours.   

 

GEM still shows the old GFS solution.   

Operational is definitely more ridgy. Let's see what ensembles say.

[Front Ranger]

I know, just feels like this summer/fall debate goes in circles. Locally I like June 15- sept 15, but when making seasonal forecasts it just seems to make the most sense to use the meteorological breakdown of JJA.

 

Sure. I think this year, we pretty clearly saw the summer pattern carry into the first part of the month, but then as the seasonal change kicked in, the weather patterns changed as well. Happens fairly often in September.

[Jesse]

Sure. I think this year, we pretty clearly saw the summer pattern carry into the first part of the month, but then as the seasonal change kicked in, the weather patterns changed as well. Happens fairly often in September.

Keeping to a strict meteorological definition that can't be moved around in hindsight in an attempt to reframe the accuracy of busted forecasts would probably be best.

[stuffradio]

Operational continues to be an outlier in the ensembles.

[Jesse]

Operational continues to be an outlier in the ensembles.

Yeah it's kind of out on its own way up there.

 

Go Canadian(s)!

[wx_statman]

Sure. I think this year, we pretty clearly saw the summer pattern carry into the first part of the month, but then as the seasonal change kicked in, the weather patterns changed as well. Happens fairly often in September.

 

It's the tendency of summer weather to carry over into the first half of September that gives the month a June-like average, despite being tempered by a seasonal cooldown late in the month. Not really groundbreaking stuff. 

[Front Ranger]

Keeping to a strict meteorological definition that can't be moved around in hindsight in an attempt to reframe the accuracy of busted forecasts would probably be best.

 

My seasonal summer forecast was always June-September. You're off here...not trying to reframe anything.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Here's the 0Z GEM From Wednesday:

 

 

 

And here's the 0z GEM tonight:

 

 

 

Not all the models hate Victoria.

[TT-SEA]

Here's the 0Z GEM From Wednesday:

 

 

 

 

And here's the 0z GEM tonight:

 

 

 

 

Not all the models hate Victoria.

 

 

Good luck with the GEM!

[Front Ranger]

It's the tendency of summer weather to carry over into the first half of September that gives the month a June-like average, despite being tempered by a seasonal cooldown late in the month. Not really groundbreaking stuff. 

 

I think we all agree it's a very transitional month.

[TT-SEA]

Cougs take down USC!  

 

Nice.   And Huskies just moved up.   Great game.

[wx_statman]

Down to 52 at PDX now. Barring some sort of wild overachievement tomorrow a top 10 warm September is probably off the table.

 

I think we've been essentially disqualified from top-10 status. We're trending for 66.6 at this point and sole possession of #11.

[Phil]

Keeping to a strict meteorological definition that can't be moved around in hindsight in an attempt to reframe the accuracy of busted forecasts would probably be best.

Yeah, pretty much this.

[Front Ranger]

Time to pay up, Kayla!

[Jesse]

I think we've been essentially disqualified from top-10 status. We're trending for 66.6 at this point and sole possession of #11.

Satanic.

[wx_statman]

Wait...I just realized I screwed up. I didn't realize the sorted list I was looking at already had 2017 on it. 

 

So we'll get #10 warmest after all. We would need to fall all the way to 66.4 to drop to #11.

 

My bad!

[wx_statman]

Satanic.

 

Satanically warm!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pictures posted on facebook from Victoria over the weekend.   Truly hell on Earth.   Nuclear wasteland.  

 

 

 

 

Doesn't look like the Victoria I know, not enough dying trees and starving wildlife. This is what you'll find in the rest of the city:

 

http://www.pacifichorticulture.org/wp-content/uploads/2002/10/2002_OND-JUSTICE-003.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Wait...I just realized I screwed up. I didn't realize the sorted list I was looking at already had 2017 on it. 

 

So we'll get #10 warmest after all. We would need to fall all the way to 66.4 to drop to #11.

 

My bad!

 

[TT-SEA]

Doesn't look like the Victoria I know, not enough dying trees and starving wildlife. This is what you'll find in the rest of the city:

 

 

 

Okie dokie.  

[wx_statman]

 

I'm blaming this one on NOWData @ the NWS. They shouldn't taint a sorted list of monthly averages with a day-old running average of the current month.

[Phil]

Wait...I just realized I screwed up. I didn't realize the sorted list I was looking at already had 2017 on it.

 

So we'll get #10 warmest after all. We would need to fall all the way to 66.4 to drop to #11.

 

My bad!

Haha.

 

Bad night for Flatiron.

[TT-SEA]

I'm blaming this one on NOWData @ the NWS. They shouldn't taint a sorted list of monthly averages with a day-old running average of the current month.

 

A very rare error... but more comical because people have been watching this for days and at the last minute you moved the goal posts. 

[wx_statman]

A very rare error... but more comical because people have been watching this for days and at the last minute you moved the goal posts. 

 

Hah. To be fair, I had it right a few days ago when I said we had ~0.4F of room to fall out of the top-10. 

 

Then I forgot my own stat. 

[Front Ranger]

Haha. Bad night for Flatiron.

 

Cool September, y'all!

 

Fantastic night. I was the one saying early this week the close call would be top 10 or not, rather than record warmest.

 

Desperation!

[wx_statman]

Haha.

 

Bad night for Flatiron.

 

Bad night for me. The statman messing up stats?? No bueno. 

[Phil]

Fantastic night. I was the one saying early this week the close call would be top 10 or not, rather than record warmest.

 

Desperation!

#CoolSeptember

[wx_statman]

Fantastic night. I was the one saying early this week the close call would be top 10 or not, rather than record warmest.

 

Desperation!

 

You were definitely closest to reality with regards to where we would land this month. #10 vs #11 doesn't matter all that much. 

[Phil]

Bad night for me. The statman messing up stats?? No bueno.

Yeah man, what gives? You've lost your edge.

 

In all seriousness I'm amazed you don't screw up more often, given how many numbers you store in your memory bank every day.

[Front Ranger]

#CoolSeptember #SucksToSuck

 

 

I think you've taken the Captain Butt Hurt title away from Jesse. Well done.

[Phil]

 

I think you've taken the Captain Butt Hurt title away from Jesse. Well done.

Brrrrrrrrr!!!!!

 

[Front Ranger]

You're just trying to distract from your mistakes, by harping on mine. Pathetic.

 

Keep going, Phil. You're making it clear you're the bigger man here.

[epiceast]

00z Euro still has the stupid ULL

[Phil]

Keep going, Phil. You're making it clear you're the bigger man here.

I'm just having fun now. You opened this can of worms, so I'll leave it up to you to close it.

[Jesse]

00z Euro trended cooler overall than the 12z run.

 

06z GFS still tries to get us pretty warm next week, but it looks like it is a notable outlier.

 

[Jesse]

Surprised to see PDX hit a low of 47 this morning after getting a pre-midnight low of 50 yesterday. They really pulled off a last minute overperformance to avoid a top warm September.

[Kayla]

Time to pay up, Kayla!

 

Luckily I wasn't the one who took it to Vegas! 

 

Good game. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

It looks like you got some much needed rain there yesterday. I have not been paying attention to the PNW thread recently because it's been sunny and hot here this week after a few days last week that were like late October. October does start tomorrow already.

 

Any fires in So Cal have been contained rather quickly, but we have not had a strong Santa Ana Wind event yet. Those can spread fires from the mountains to the coast in one night.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Surprised to see PDX hit a low of 47 this morning after getting a pre-midnight low of 50 yesterday. They really pulled off a last minute overperformance to avoid a top warm September.

One night should not make a huge difference for the monthly average. If this September were warmest ever by 0.01 degrees, one cold night could maybe make a difference.