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September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread


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Parade of aquatic monsters.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/12ABBE93-C0C6-4648-BF0C-DEB8DE160F7D_zpssbn9h3hm.png

 

Charleston!   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF control run shows the trough next weekend as well... then returns to warm ridging fairly quickly.

 

12Z EPS is much weaker with the trough and we just stay in flat ridging for the rest of the run.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Charleston!

A lot more re-curves on the latest EPS, so you might still be able to retire there. ;)

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95/45 so far at RDM today. Nice 50 degree swing there.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

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Mark going with 100 for tomorrow. Pretty ballsy.

Tomorrow looks a lot like a slightly warmer version of 9/2/2003.

 

We'll have slightly higher 500mb heights so we should do better than 94...but not by much.

 

It's otherwise essentially a redux in terms of calendar, ridge position, 850's, and surface winds during the afternoon.

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Tomorrow looks a lot like a slightly warmer version of 9/2/2003.

 

We'll have slightly higher 500mb heights so we should do better than 94...but not by much.

 

It's otherwise essentially a redux in terms of calendar, ridge position, 850's, and surface winds during the afternoon.

 

850s do look a degree or so warmer and 500mb heights at 592ish vs ~588, but yeah, 100 would be a big overachievement. Tuesday is still the best bet for September triple digits.

 

Also the 18z completely owns NYC. Hopefully that does not happen.

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850s do look a degree or so warmer and 500mb heights at 592ish vs ~588, but yeah, 100 would be a big overachievement. Tuesday is still the best bet for September triple digits.

 

Also the 18z completely owns NYC. Hopefully that does not happen.

I'm banking on tomorrow staying around 25.0-25.5C. Both the GFS and NAM have trended in that direction. That's right where 9/2/2003 landed as well.

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Mark going with 100 for tomorrow. Pretty ballsy.

 

Not Marks forecast...

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Hillsboro mixed out pretty well.

 

Toasty! 

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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0Z NAM sticking to its guns.

 

25c/593dm and 94 @ 4pm...translating to a high of 96 or so.

 

While the 00z GFS also says 96 tomorrow. 850 temp only tops out at 24c though.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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While the 00z GFS also says 96 tomorrow. 850 temp only tops out at 24c though.

 

Interestingly, this afternoon's sounding over SLE already showed 24.8C and 595dm heights overhead. Both were higher than modeled for today. Maybe tomorrow will continue the trend...won't take much of a tweak upward to push us into the 98 degree range. Even today, MMV hit 97 and HIO 96.

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No smoke is shown for most of the area all the way through Sunday... much better than I anticipated.    It will also not be factor in limiting temperatures the next 2 days.

 

This is Sunday evening...

 

2017090112_V2017090312_Z_gemmach_PM2.5_d

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z ECMWF is quite troughy and wet after day 7.

 

And takes a 932mb hurricane right into Charleston on day 10. That would make Harvey look like childs play.

 

Harvey was 937mb at landfall and strengthening, which makes a difference. 

 

The size of Irma is such that its surge is likely to be greater for whoever it may impact. Rainfall won't be anything like Harvey.

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Harvey was 937mb at landfall and strengthening, which makes a difference.

 

The size of Irma is such that its surge is likely to be greater for whoever it may impact. Rainfall won't be anything like Harvey.

Still awaiting the EPS, but the GFS is a monster too, and all but one GEFS member makes landfall. Gets down to 893mb on the GFS before landfalling as a cat4.

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Some estimates estimate Harvey's economic cost will be more than Katrina and Ike combined. Hundreds of billions of dollars by most projections. We're gonna go into serious debt at this rate.

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Still awaiting the EPS, but the GFS is a monster too, and all but one GEFS member makes landfall. Gets down to 893mb on the GFS before landfalling as a cat4.

 

Yeah, it's definitely looking more likely than not that it makes a U.S. landfall at this point. Also looking much more likely than not that it at least gets to higher-end Cat 4 strength.

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Harvey was 937mb at landfall and strengthening, which makes a difference.

 

The size of Irma is such that its surge is likely to be greater for whoever it may impact. Rainfall won't be anything like Harvey.

Ahhhh... good to know.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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