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Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22


bud2380

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Yeah the 12z GFS was really something, and for a lot of us! Down in my area it was further west again with the really deep cold. 925 mb temps fall to -25C or so with wind chills of -25 to -30F! On top of that it drops a foot of snow. A true blizzard there. 

CMC was solid, just not quite as intense. ICON was ok, UMKET was meh. CMCE looks slightly worse than the 00z run, while the GEFS is slightly better. Still expecting some changes in the days ahead but not sure which way things will lean. 

gfs-deterministic-oklahoma-snow_24hr_kuchera-1775200.png

gfs-deterministic-oklahoma-t925-1796800.png

gfs-deterministic-oklahoma-apparent_temperature_f-1796800.png

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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1 hour ago, Stacsh said:
1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

OH My.  I hate this GFS run because it would be the 1st or second best blizzard of my life.  So it won’t happen lol (born in 80)

 

While I have seen the big storms of 1967, 1973 and 1978 I agree with you will NOT believe it will happen until it (if it does) happen

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I’ll be visiting family near Chicago for this so have been following along closely. I visit almost every year for Christmas and it’s been amazing how few significant snows I’ve experienced there. Hopefully this holds and changes that! Looking solid considering it’s still 6 days out.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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This storm is missing one thing... deep moisture.  A shortwave moving through the gulf and across Florida is going to keep the deep moisture separated from the strong low up here.

image.thumb.png.e4008161e19951a84df2a045319bb240.png

image.thumb.png.f89b0e620eece89760b2e3e26ff019d0.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We really don't even get an ideal Gulf feed into this system.  Notice on this pwat map below how there is a significant westerly component to the vectors.  The leading wave near the east coast is probably affecting that.

If we actually got a better Gulf feed into this system... call your momma.

12Z-20221217_GFSUS_prec_pwat-108-150-100-100.gif.8af028c81145f252bb5a2436390dc7b7.gif

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3 hours ago, Bellona said:

Let's lock these in. Most of the sub would be happy! Even Nebraska gets some.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

..and the other donut hole, mby

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Chicago area folks... here's a target to shoot for.  The biggest December storm on record for the city is 14.9", which occurred on 12/18/1929 to 12/20/1929.  

It's been a while since there's been a really good December storm.  And of course even a semi-decent snow has been hard to come by in recent Decembers.

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

@BAMWx made this comparison to the '78 Blizzard...

image.jpeg

 

image.png

Except the first map would be earlier in the sequence vs map 2 for this storm. Intensity if off the charts on that Euro run - Wowza!

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Quite a 12z GFS run.  At one point the surface low deepens 42 mb in 24 hours, which is high end for this part of the country that doesn't have the ocean as an advantage.  

There are differences in the setups, but the GFS surface map next Saturday morning is almost a dead ringer for the morning of January 26, 1978. 

Gee, what could go wrong?  Lol

78 was 40 mb in 24 hrs for ref. WOW

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

While I have seen the big storms of 1967, 1973 and 1978 I agree with you will NOT believe it will happen until it (if it does) happen

Fair enough. In the '78 bomb, they new a Big Dog would be hunting somewhere in the region, but even the evening prior (prior to it bombing so intense), the going forecast had the SLP going much further east over Toronto. 

Grand Rapids long-time Met on TV-8 recounted his forecast. I want 10 foot drifts in my forecast JUST ONCE, lol. Went on to say he personally stood atop and measured a 15 foot drift in the countryside near GR.

1337628816_BillSteffensGRTV-8memoriesof78Bliz.png.e8e66ee019f3eea5910374ee0568fd36.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Chicago area folks... here's a target to shoot for.  The biggest December storm on record for the city is 14.9", which occurred on 12/18/1929 to 12/20/1929.  

It's been a while since there's been a really good December storm.  And of course even a semi-decent snow has been hard to come by in recent Decembers.

Interesting. So Dec '00 Bliz did not treat Chicago as favorably as SMI?? Usually you always get a boost off Lk. Mich. with an easterly or NE flow.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Chicago area folks... here's a target to shoot for.  The biggest December storm on record for the city is 14.9", which occurred on 12/18/1929 to 12/20/1929.  

It's been a while since there's been a really good December storm.  And of course even a semi-decent snow has been hard to come by in recent Decembers.

Yep, starting to get excited about next week

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Except the first map would be earlier in the sequence vs map 2 for this storm. Intensity if off the charts on that Euro run - Wowza!

78 was 40 mb in 24 hrs for ref. WOW

Fair enough. In the '78 bomb, they new a Big Dog would be hunting somewhere in the region, but even the evening prior (prior to it bombing so intense), the going forecast had the SLP going much further east over Toronto. 

Grand Rapids long-time Met on TV-8 recounted his forecast. I want 10 foot drifts in my forecast JUST ONCE, lol. Went on to say he personally stood atop and measured a 15 foot drift in the countryside near GR.

1337628816_BillSteffensGRTV-8memoriesof78Bliz.png.e8e66ee019f3eea5910374ee0568fd36.png

For an even shorter timescale, I believe the 1978 storm deepened around 30 mb in just 12 hours as it moved into OH.  I've read multiple papers on it of course and I think that was the number.  

The 12z GFS had like 22 mb of deepening in 12 hours, so not as explosive but it was similar over the course of 24 hrs.

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5 minutes ago, Tom said:

I wonder what Tom Skilling is thinking back home…

Haha. Where's "back home" for TS? He retired there I presume? Wanted to say that the 12z Euro weak sauce vs (amazing to even be saying this) is more of a Jan '99 vs Jan '78. Prolly top (2) impactful storms for the east half of the Sub at least (or mid Idk, it's grown so large)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Haha. Where's "back home" for TS? He retired there I presume? Wanted to say that the 12z Euro weak sauce vs (amazing to even be saying this) is more of a Jan '99 vs Jan '78. Prolly top (2) impactful storms for the east half of the Sub at least (or mid Idk, it's grown so large)

I’m still in AZ so I said back home as in  Chicago…. 

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Maybe too early to be getting into these details, but the progged slowdown somewhere around the Lakes, should it occur, will only serve to make things more impactful.  Quite plausible based on latest model solutions that there would be a good 24-36 hours of gusts over 40 mph over a very large area, with a window of higher winds than that.  

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LOT AFD

It is also worth acknowledging the elephant in the room, which is
that there are model solutions suggesting a potentially higher
impact winter weather scenario may unfold somewhere in the region
during the Thursday-Friday timeframe, a peak travel period heading
into the upcoming holiday weekend. We are monitoring this very
closely, though we want to add that there remains a lot of
uncertainty in how things will ultimately unfold given it is still
several days away and urge caution to not lock onto specific
operational model runs as there remains a lot of spread among the
various ensembles. We encourage everyone to stay up to date with
the latest forecasts over the coming days as we get closer and
confidence in how this event will ultimately play out increases.

Where confidence is higher, however, is in the potential for at
least some accumulating snow falling across the area during the
Wednesday night-Friday timeframe, which combined with gusty winds
would result in some travel impacts and bitter cold wind chills
below zero heading into the holiday weekend -- regardless of how
much snow ends up falling and how high the winds end up getting.
If you haven`t already, winter prep for your home and vehicles
should be done early in the week!
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GRR

-Late week storm potential

Guidance continues to show the potential for impactful storm for
the end of next week. A powerful mid to upper level wave digs down
from the Canadian Rockies becoming negative tilted as it enters
the Great Lakes region. This system draws up abundant Gulf
moisture which meets up with the arctic air advecting in from the
Upper Midwest to generate heavy precipitation here in MI. There
is still a lot of uncertainty on how much impacts we will see but
confidence is on the increase that we will see some winter impacts
by this storm. The GFS deterministic has trended west with surface
low track...taking it up through the east side of MI...while the
ECMWF has is coming over the west side of the state. The Canadian
looks a lot like the GFS. These two models would support a heavy
windy snow event through the duration. While the track of the
ECMWF would support a transition to a period of rain...the onset
and backside of that run would still generate winter impacts. The
ECMWF ensemble shows plenty of members with heavy snow.
Still... much can change on the details...but based on the
ensemble trends...confidence on impacts is on the increase
starting Thursday and continuing into Saturday.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe too early to be getting into these details, but the progged slowdown somewhere around the Lakes, should it occur, will only serve to make things more impactful.  Quite plausible based on latest model solutions that there would be a good 24-36 hours of gusts over 40 mph over a very large area, with a window of higher winds than that.  

ala '78. KIND had 24 or 30 straight hours of zero vis (airport obs). That's insane at I-70 LAT. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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