Black Hole Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Yeah the 12z GFS was really something, and for a lot of us! Down in my area it was further west again with the really deep cold. 925 mb temps fall to -25C or so with wind chills of -25 to -30F! On top of that it drops a foot of snow. A true blizzard there. CMC was solid, just not quite as intense. ICON was ok, UMKET was meh. CMCE looks slightly worse than the 00z run, while the GEFS is slightly better. Still expecting some changes in the days ahead but not sure which way things will lean. 2 1 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: OH My. I hate this GFS run because it would be the 1st or second best blizzard of my life. So it won’t happen lol (born in 80) While I have seen the big storms of 1967, 1973 and 1978 I agree with you will NOT believe it will happen until it (if it does) happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Gee, what could go wrong? Lol A lot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Not a good 12z EURO run around here. Sigh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Euro 997 over Chicago at 132 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 The Euro is close, but Iowans need the upper low to close off a bit farther sw. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Gets down to 986 in MI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Less amped. Safe to say this is locked in for our sub. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Yes please 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Money said: Gets down to 986 in MI. 979mb right over S LM at Hr144...Bombogenesis! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 What friggin' dynamic storm we are tracking and literally every single global model is showing something really intense. Everything a winter enthusiast wants to track just before the Christmas holiday and smack their backyard! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 12z Euro thru HR 150...still snowing in lower lakes... 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Wish it were more wrapped up further south and west. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 It snows in NE IL for 24+ hours straight...a bonafide Blizzard...if this Dream storm comes true, my goodness, I'll remember it for the rest of my life! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 12z Euro full run and covers a lot of real estate...the Yoopers get dumped on from backside LES and so does SW MI.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 I’ll be visiting family near Chicago for this so have been following along closely. I visit almost every year for Christmas and it’s been amazing how few significant snows I’ve experienced there. Hopefully this holds and changes that! Looking solid considering it’s still 6 days out. 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 I’d be ok with the Euro. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 This storm is missing one thing... deep moisture. A shortwave moving through the gulf and across Florida is going to keep the deep moisture separated from the strong low up here. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 We really don't even get an ideal Gulf feed into this system. Notice on this pwat map below how there is a significant westerly component to the vectors. The leading wave near the east coast is probably affecting that. If we actually got a better Gulf feed into this system... call your momma. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: This storm is missing one thing... deep moisture. A shortwave moving through the gulf and across Florida is going to keep the deep moisture separated from the strong low up here. Great minds think alike lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 40 minutes ago, Tom said: Gets down to 986 in MI. Not sure if I believe it will get that low. For a point of reference the record lowest in Michigan is a reported 955.29 on January 26, 1978. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Call me a pessimist (shocking I know), but I’m not impressed for here. It’ll be nice to get some snow for sure, but between the TWO systems I’m thinking 3-6” tops here. And then the D**n cold. NWS feels the same. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 hours ago, Bellona said: Let's lock these in. Most of the sub would be happy! Even Nebraska gets some. ..and the other donut hole, mby Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: ..and the other donut hole, mby At least it's decent snow. The alternative lately has been too much mild/brown around the holiday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Chicago area folks... here's a target to shoot for. The biggest December storm on record for the city is 14.9", which occurred on 12/18/1929 to 12/20/1929. It's been a while since there's been a really good December storm. And of course even a semi-decent snow has been hard to come by in recent Decembers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 hours ago, Tom said: @BAMWx made this comparison to the '78 Blizzard... Except the first map would be earlier in the sequence vs map 2 for this storm. Intensity if off the charts on that Euro run - Wowza! 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Quite a 12z GFS run. At one point the surface low deepens 42 mb in 24 hours, which is high end for this part of the country that doesn't have the ocean as an advantage. There are differences in the setups, but the GFS surface map next Saturday morning is almost a dead ringer for the morning of January 26, 1978. Gee, what could go wrong? Lol 78 was 40 mb in 24 hrs for ref. WOW 2 hours ago, westMJim said: While I have seen the big storms of 1967, 1973 and 1978 I agree with you will NOT believe it will happen until it (if it does) happen Fair enough. In the '78 bomb, they new a Big Dog would be hunting somewhere in the region, but even the evening prior (prior to it bombing so intense), the going forecast had the SLP going much further east over Toronto. Grand Rapids long-time Met on TV-8 recounted his forecast. I want 10 foot drifts in my forecast JUST ONCE, lol. Went on to say he personally stood atop and measured a 15 foot drift in the countryside near GR. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Chicago area folks... here's a target to shoot for. The biggest December storm on record for the city is 14.9", which occurred on 12/18/1929 to 12/20/1929. It's been a while since there's been a really good December storm. And of course even a semi-decent snow has been hard to come by in recent Decembers. Interesting. So Dec '00 Bliz did not treat Chicago as favorably as SMI?? Usually you always get a boost off Lk. Mich. with an easterly or NE flow. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Chicago area folks... here's a target to shoot for. The biggest December storm on record for the city is 14.9", which occurred on 12/18/1929 to 12/20/1929. It's been a while since there's been a really good December storm. And of course even a semi-decent snow has been hard to come by in recent Decembers. Yep, starting to get excited about next week 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Except the first map would be earlier in the sequence vs map 2 for this storm. Intensity if off the charts on that Euro run - Wowza! 78 was 40 mb in 24 hrs for ref. WOW Fair enough. In the '78 bomb, they new a Big Dog would be hunting somewhere in the region, but even the evening prior (prior to it bombing so intense), the going forecast had the SLP going much further east over Toronto. Grand Rapids long-time Met on TV-8 recounted his forecast. I want 10 foot drifts in my forecast JUST ONCE, lol. Went on to say he personally stood atop and measured a 15 foot drift in the countryside near GR. For an even shorter timescale, I believe the 1978 storm deepened around 30 mb in just 12 hours as it moved into OH. I've read multiple papers on it of course and I think that was the number. The 12z GFS had like 22 mb of deepening in 12 hours, so not as explosive but it was similar over the course of 24 hrs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Interesting. So Dec '00 Bliz did not treat Chicago as favorably as SMI?? Usually you always get a boost off Lk. Mich. with an easterly or NE flow. Midway did better than ORD. Midway had 14.3" from that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 I wonder what Tom Skilling is thinking back home… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tom said: I wonder what Tom Skilling is thinking back home… Haha. Where's "back home" for TS? He retired there I presume? Wanted to say that the 12z Euro weak sauce vs (amazing to even be saying this) is more of a Jan '99 vs Jan '78. Prolly top (2) impactful storms for the east half of the Sub at least (or mid Idk, it's grown so large) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Haha. Where's "back home" for TS? He retired there I presume? Wanted to say that the 12z Euro weak sauce vs (amazing to even be saying this) is more of a Jan '99 vs Jan '78. Prolly top (2) impactful storms for the east half of the Sub at least (or mid Idk, it's grown so large) I’m still in AZ so I said back home as in Chicago…. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 While nothing to do with the upcoming event. The snow has now stopped here. I just took a snow fall measurements and here in MBY I have a total of 10.5" on the ground. There are some breaks in the clouds now and the temperature is now at 29. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 34 minutes ago, Tom said: I’m still in AZ so I said back home as in Chicago…. When you plan on coming back to Chicago? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Maybe too early to be getting into these details, but the progged slowdown somewhere around the Lakes, should it occur, will only serve to make things more impactful. Quite plausible based on latest model solutions that there would be a good 24-36 hours of gusts over 40 mph over a very large area, with a window of higher winds than that. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z ICON similar to EURO. Not loving these trends. Wraps up too late leaving us just a small window for precip. Always something… 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 LOT AFD It is also worth acknowledging the elephant in the room, which is that there are model solutions suggesting a potentially higher impact winter weather scenario may unfold somewhere in the region during the Thursday-Friday timeframe, a peak travel period heading into the upcoming holiday weekend. We are monitoring this very closely, though we want to add that there remains a lot of uncertainty in how things will ultimately unfold given it is still several days away and urge caution to not lock onto specific operational model runs as there remains a lot of spread among the various ensembles. We encourage everyone to stay up to date with the latest forecasts over the coming days as we get closer and confidence in how this event will ultimately play out increases. Where confidence is higher, however, is in the potential for at least some accumulating snow falling across the area during the Wednesday night-Friday timeframe, which combined with gusty winds would result in some travel impacts and bitter cold wind chills below zero heading into the holiday weekend -- regardless of how much snow ends up falling and how high the winds end up getting. If you haven`t already, winter prep for your home and vehicles should be done early in the week! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 GRR -Late week storm potential Guidance continues to show the potential for impactful storm for the end of next week. A powerful mid to upper level wave digs down from the Canadian Rockies becoming negative tilted as it enters the Great Lakes region. This system draws up abundant Gulf moisture which meets up with the arctic air advecting in from the Upper Midwest to generate heavy precipitation here in MI. There is still a lot of uncertainty on how much impacts we will see but confidence is on the increase that we will see some winter impacts by this storm. The GFS deterministic has trended west with surface low track...taking it up through the east side of MI...while the ECMWF has is coming over the west side of the state. The Canadian looks a lot like the GFS. These two models would support a heavy windy snow event through the duration. While the track of the ECMWF would support a transition to a period of rain...the onset and backside of that run would still generate winter impacts. The ECMWF ensemble shows plenty of members with heavy snow. Still... much can change on the details...but based on the ensemble trends...confidence on impacts is on the increase starting Thursday and continuing into Saturday. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Maybe too early to be getting into these details, but the progged slowdown somewhere around the Lakes, should it occur, will only serve to make things more impactful. Quite plausible based on latest model solutions that there would be a good 24-36 hours of gusts over 40 mph over a very large area, with a window of higher winds than that. ala '78. KIND had 24 or 30 straight hours of zero vis (airport obs). That's insane at I-70 LAT. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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