Hoosier Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, jaster220 said: ala '78. KIND had 24 or 30 straight hours of zero vis (airport obs). That's insane at I-70 LAT. With all this talk about 1978 and high winds impacting ratios, I went back and checked some numbers for Chicago. On Jan 25-26, they had 12.1" on 1.20" of precip, so 10:1 ratio. I checked a couple other locations and it was pretty similar... like 10:1 to 12:1. Measuring would've been difficult in that storm and maybe you can find some places that had better ratios, but probably not on the whole. Based on that and experiences with past windy storms, use the Kuchera snow maps with extreme caution. Even with it being cold and even if flake production is favorable for dendrites, it's going to be tough to get anything very high ratio. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 55 minutes ago, james1976 said: When you plan on coming back to Chicago? Monday morning… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 18z GFS 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: I wonder what Tom Skilling is thinking back home… He hasn't mentioned too much as of yet other than it's something to keep an eye on especially with the lake enhancement. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, winterfreak said: 18z GFS My amounts keep trending up. Not getting too excited yet. Reverse psychology. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Scientifically speaking, the 18z GFS is a disjointed/late organizing pile of crap. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 GFS still a ways off from a EURO-like solution. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 000 FXUS63 KDTX 172032 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 332 PM EST Sat Dec 17 2022 .DISCUSSION... The dominant focus for the upcoming week will be the potential for a significant winter storm by late in the week with a substantial cold air intrusion in its wake by next weekend. (Solid acknowledgement for this office with the usual p-type caveats that plague every storm here) 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Scientifically speaking, the 18z GFS is a disjointed/late organizing pile of crap. But I'm guessing it was more east since it didn't Grinch mby Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 We all get to post some weenie run maps, right?? GFS loop for the ages: 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 17/12z GFS Jan '78 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 IWX Medium range models continue to be in excellent agreement in carving out an impressive pv anomaly into the Central and Eastern US Thursday into Friday. Rapid cyclogenesis and a potent winter storm appears likely given a very energetic upper jet and good moisture return along an associated arctic front. The details (track/intensity/ptype evolution/etc) are obviously highly uncertain at this range with expected large spreads in ensemble low pressure tracks (track overhead with a rain to snow scenario...or east for mainly snow). With that said, confidence does continue to increase for a period of accumulating snow and wind toward the end of the week (Thursday night-Friday), followed by a shot of arctic air and chances for lake effect snow in time for Christmas Eve and Christmas. Headline worthy snow, winds and wind chills are definitely in play. We will continue to closely monitor this system and patiently await lessening model spread in the coming days. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, jaster220 said: 17/12z GFS Jan '78 Is that bottom image from when they ran the Jan 78 setup through the modern day modeling? I remember seeing something like that a while back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 17, 2022 Report Share Posted December 17, 2022 Sure looks like a crazy good Lake effect setup in my neck of the woods as it stands now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 I would caution the goalposts are still giant with this thing.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Is that bottom image from when they ran the Jan 78 setup through the modern day modeling? I remember seeing something like that a while back. Yes and keep in mind that was after it was already "filling" and drifting ENE. I don't know if I saved the entire loop. Will have to look in my files. Ofc, a major difference between set-ups (not only more than a month earlier on the calendar) is that the '78 event was a merger (surf and aloft) of two distinct systems/branches. An almost perfect merger at 500mb level if you've seen that loop. They say that was responsible for the crazy intensification. Unless this digs way south, then shoots almost due north, I don't see how it could possibly come close to being a 957 mb SLP in NOH. 980-ish would be extremely strong for something at the LAT of S Lakes Erie/Michigan. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, gosaints said: I would caution the goalposts are still giant with this thing.... Track/strength/moisture all up in the air ofc. Cold push seems to be the most common denominator at this range. Without that, we'd not even be entertaining a potential historic outcome. ALL the models could be mis-reading some key ingredient that they suddenly "find" Tuesday, and the air it let out the balloon. For now, Big Dog certainly remains firmly on the table as all the AFD's I read (and CPC) have indicated. Memorable for timing alone should be appreciated too. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 Good writeup from DVN this afternoon. Mid to Late Week... Winter is here, literally. We have the potential to bring in the first day of winter with quite the show. We have our eyes on a winter storm set to potentially impact much of the area Wednesday night and through Thursday. Much uncertainty exists amongst guidance, with the Euro continuing to be the most aggressive system. Not only does it have the phasing of systems, but it also develops a very strong surface low. The GFS is slowly starting to get a grasp, with the latest deterministic run phasing the system slightly east of where the Euro brings it. The issue that I have with the GFS is the fact that the deterministic run is quite different from the GEFS members and the deterministic run has been inconsistent. Several of the GEFS members over the last few runs depict quite a different situation, more similar to the Euro. With that in mind, most guidance brings in accumulating snow. How much? It is too soon to say, as this will strongly rely on where/if the systems phase and the track of the surface low. Not only will these impact the amount of snow, but these factors will also dictate the potential for strong winds. As was discussed in the latest forecast package, the closer the low tracks to us, the potential for blizzard conditions increases. While deterministic runs are aggressive with the winds Wednesday through Friday, ensemble probabilities are not favoring much at the moment. Thus, uncertainty is too high at the moment and will will continue to monitor. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 CPC Friday pm disco was still sold on EC cyclone. Be curious how Monday pm's will look/read. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Yes and keep in mind that was after it was already "filling" and drifting ENE. I don't know if I saved the entire loop. Will have to look in my files. Ofc, a major difference between set-ups (not only more than a month earlier on the calendar) is that the '78 event was a merger (surf and aloft) of two distinct systems/branches. An almost perfect merger at 500mb level if you've seen that loop. They say that was responsible for the crazy intensification. Unless this digs way south, then shoots almost due north, I don't see how it could possibly come close to being a 957 mb SLP in NOH. 980-ish would be extremely strong for something at the LAT of S Lakes Erie/Michigan. I've looked at the 500 mb loop of the '78 storm more than a few times over the years. Phasing sort of exists on a spectrum. This is just stupid good. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I've looked at the 500 mb loop of the '78 storm more than a few times over the years. Phasing sort of exists on a spectrum. This is just stupid good. They say the N Shortwave came straight over from Russian Siberia. It's clearly the stronger of the two prior to the merge. Why that storm may likely never be matched in spite of how similar some of these wild model runs look. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 hours ago, winterfreak said: 18z GFS That's quite the snow shield over the next week. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I've looked at the 500 mb loop of the '78 storm more than a few times over the years. Phasing sort of exists on a spectrum. This is just stupid good. Another thing. That S branch shortwave brought some bigly pwats as it got "sucked" N into the merger. Presuming we even get the wound-up system, moisture may indeed be the key missing ingredient, and make those benefitting from warmer lake temps the big winner zones. I actually expect the 0z suite to come in scaled way back wrt dynamics. I think we've seen the top-shelf runs and things will begin to come down to earth. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 29 minutes ago, jaster220 said: They say the N Shortwave came straight over from Russian Siberia. It's clearly the stronger of the two prior to the merge. Why that storm may likely never be matched in spite of how similar some of these wild model runs look. If you just look at the ending of that 500 mb loop from 1978, it looks pretty similar to the current 500 mb progs for next weekend. It gets there in a different manner though. No 2 storms are exactly alike. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If you just look at the ending of that 500 mb loop from 1978, it looks pretty similar to the current 500 mb progs for next weekend. It gets there in a different manner though. No 2 storms are exactly alike. At the further N latitude it may, just not down where we live. See my other post for another reason '78 had more going for it. This one may have a ceiling closer to GHD-1 or '99 imho Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 9 hours ago, Clinton said: @OKwx2k4you may want to take a peak at the 12z GFS. See! I get in this dang emotional snowllercoaster too! Haha! I love it! Thing with a storm you can guess at with pattern recognition from huge range, it feels like we've been watching this storm a month already. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Scientifically speaking, the 18z GFS is a disjointed/late organizing pile of crap. I appreciate the thorough technical breakdown of the run there friend. Go ahead and tell us how you really feel about it. That's too funny. Also, "How I have felt about every winter for 7 years." 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, jaster220 said: At the further N latitude it may, just not down where we live. See my other post for another reason '78 had more going for it. This one may have a ceiling closer to GHD-1 or '99 imho The 1978 storm was already down into the 960s by the time it entered Ohio. Just nuts. In order to get a quicker deepening scenario, we would need the upper low to close off and strengthen more quickly. Even then, probably couldn't pull off sub 970 mb in southern Ohio haha 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The 1978 storm was already down into the 960s by the time it entered Ohio. Just nuts. In order to get a quicker deepening scenario, we would need the upper low to close off and strengthen more quickly. Even then, probably couldn't pull off sub 970 mb in southern Ohio haha Not only that, and that's a serious one. But '78 had existing snowpack all across the S Lakes/OHV from previous storms including that OHV bliz that missed SMI. As soon as snow began, whatever thawing had happened due to warm air ahead of the arctic front, immediately froze up and the new snow had a "jump start" in depth. 5" was the common depth across SMI away from LES belts (where it was more like 12"). Instant 6" depth 1 or 2 hours into the storm. Impacts from the same exact storm starting from zero depth would not be as immediate. Really helped drifts to get out of hand since plow banks made capture troughs for the wind driven snow at onset. Believe I read a report from Jackson that snow set in at 11 pm on the 25th, and by 12 am (1 hour into it) some county roads were already deemed impassable. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 NWS in Hastings being extremely conservative for this system, almost laughably so considering the major travel timeframe of it. Calling for 1-2 inches and not mentioning anything about higher amounts possible. The write up was a joke mentioning only some light snow with the frontal passage 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buzzman289 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 Really while reading the input everyone puts into this forum, i am glad i come here everyday. Some times post, but mainly lurk. I learn a tremendous amount of info from All of you, Thank You 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, buzzman289 said: Really while reading the input everyone puts into this forum, i am glad i come here everyday. Some times post, but mainly lurk. I learn a tremendous amount of info from All of you, Thank You I don't post too much as there are many things I still don't fully grasp. But, I trust what I see even more than the NWS most times. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 Key wave up around the Arctic Ocean will be in Alaska on Sunday/Monday. How much this will help the model output, we shall see. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 MPX nice write up....says GFS has been trending toward the Euro. Also....the -40 windchill to follow. Full on winter! Eyeballing close to a foot of snow depth currently at the MN home.....and no melting in sight. The big question mark comes with where the surface low will eventually track. There appear to be 2 main solutions in ensemble guidance. One, the trough remains in place over eastern Canada, resulting in a less amplified ridge over the eastern U.S., more zonal flow, and a track farther south along the Ohio River (similar to the 12Z GFS). The other, similar to the 12Z ECMWF, lifts the trough out of eastern Canada with southwest flow across the central U.S. As the wave rounds the base of the trough, the system takes on a very negative tilt with a considerable deformation band in the northwest quadrant. Impressive snow accumulations would be likely. In addition, as the system deepens, the pressure gradient would increase winds substantially...resulting in blowing snow, possible blizzard conditions, and dangerously cold wind chills. This system has the potential to bring major impacts to a large chunk of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest and will need to be watched. At this time, either scenario is equally likely, but it should be noted the GFS has been trending closer to the ECMWF in recent runs. Arctic air will remain in place through the rest of the period. Gusty winds behind the departing system will keep dangerous wind chills going with readings possibly colder than 40 below across western MN. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 While we're waiting on other models, it's kind of cool to loop the 00z ICON and watch the surface low. At 111 hrs it's around Lake Michigan, and then you see it readjust south and deepen explosively as heights crash southeast and the wave rounds the base of the trough. Other models have been doing this kind of thing as well... just varying with location/magnitude. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 Icon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 Early look on the GFS through HR 90 and looks to be weaker/East this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Money said: Icon Would point out that some of this in IN/MI (and obviously east) is rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 GFS @96 looks slower vs 17/0z Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2022 Report Share Posted December 18, 2022 Icon at HR 111 had surface low in Chicago while the GFS is like what low? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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