Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[Money]

[mlgamer]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Who are paying off to get 23.6 inches? lol

Better yet, where am I getting the money to pay them? lol

[Money]

Noticed a trend in higher QPF in the bullseye. Is it because it’s seeing more gulf moisture over the last few days? Or because it’s stronger? 

[Money]

GFS and ICON showing stronger initial wave band and farther north. In the short term I think this is something to watch..GFS barely had anything 24 hours ago now it’s similar to ICON/EURO and we then seen a NW with main system 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Guess I have to take my 3-6 forecast and throw it in the trash for now. Those runs got me a bit more excited. Now to see if the Euro and future runs hold on to that, or if it was just a fluke.

You use the LRC you should have known, shame on you lol.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS has 40mb pressure gradient over Iowa for early/mid Friday. That's insane. 2009 blizzard (the only true blizzard for all of IA in 30 years) has 30mb...

[Madtown]

Nov 4th and 5th is the match? Kids birthday weekend. 2.35" of rain. 30 degree temp drop between 4th and 5th ad well

[Grizzcoat]

Someone is going to be doing some serious "Winning" with this system.

 

[Clinton]

@Hawkeye how long has it been since Cedar Rapids received a foot of snow in 24hrs?  I remember last year you said it had been awhile but I couldn't remember.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Good grief!!!

[winterfreak]

It’s only down from here…right?!

[Money]

2 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

It’s only down from here…right?!

That’s what I fear 

[bud2380]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@Hawkeye how long has it been since Cedar Rapids received a foot of snow in 24hrs?  I remember last year you said it had been awhile but I couldn't remember.

I know this wasn’t directed to me, but I live close to CR. 2015 we got 11” in North Liberty. But haven’t gotten a foot since the GHD blizzard. 

[Grizzcoat]

9 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Nov 4th and 5th is the match? Kids birthday weekend. 2.35" of rain. 30 degree temp drop between 4th and 5th ad well

2.53" at KDSM on those dates.  Interesting. If this pans out- I'll be a fan of LRC big time.

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I know this wasn’t directed to me, but I live close to CR. 2015 we got 11” in North Liberty. But haven’t gotten a foot since the GHD blizzard. 

Thanks, I only directed it at Hawkeye because he mentioned it before.  I think there is a good chance that streak may end for you guys.  Flingers crossed. 

[james1976]

Everytime I check this thread its 2 more pages haha. Can't keep up

[mlgamer]

1 minute ago, james1976 said:

Everytime I check this thread its 2 more pages haha. Can't keep up

I'm wondering if it will set a record number of posts. Maybe break the thread? lol

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

2.53" at KDSM on those dates.  Interesting. If this pans out- I'll be a fan of LRC big time.

There is a lot to it, I'm still learning.  There may be a certain fat a** in western MO who missed a spike in the EPO on the previous storm and looked kind of silly.  When things line up with the teleconnections like they are this time it can be a cheat code for storms. 

[Clinton]

Just now, mlgamer said:

I'm wondering if it will set a record number of posts. Maybe break the thread? lol

Christmas week excitement.

[Money]

GEFS agrees with the OP

[Hoosier]

 

[Money]

Ukie at 96

[winterfreak]

0z GEFS qpf:

[Hoosier]

Certainly curious to see if the Euro shifts as far nw as the GFS.  Normally don't see as big of shifts on the Euro at this range.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Money said:

Ukie at 96

That's at least faster than the GFS. Would have to look at later hours to see if it's more of a speed difference or track difference.

[Grizzcoat]

ukie -

[bud2380]

GEFS mean

 

[Money]

Ukie 978 L over W MI at 108 

[Clinton]

Just now, bud2380 said:

GEFS mean

 

Now that's a jump!

[gabel23]

Holy Moses are things coming in hot tonight! The AO and NAO are doing their work in the second cycle of the LRC. Let’s keep the qpf going up that’s all I ask. This storm closed out around southern Missouri in November I’ll take what’s the gfs is showing this time around!

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Money said:

Ukie 978 L over W MI at 108 

GFS is southwest of Chicago at same time.

[Hawkeye]

28 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@Hawkeye how long has it been since Cedar Rapids received a foot of snow in 24hrs?  I remember last year you said it had been awhile but I couldn't remember.

Cedar Rapids has not reported an official snow total in a long time.  However, I have never measured a foot in 24 hours.

[Jack_GradStudent]

Can only pray for a track like this.. wishing this was Wednesday night rather than Sunday night. GEFS also has continued to show this trough getting its act together much quicker and taking that negative tilt as it translates over Kansas and Missouri. Deterministic GFS spews out over an inch of liquid which is just not supported by any of the other data at this point whatsoever. An inch of qpf has got to be still considered a 95th percentile type of solution at this point. Storms like this that bring in tons of cold air in my experience often rack up snow totals not due to lots of qpf but higher ratios.. at best I see ~0.75 qpf from this storm but one that the ratios could kick snow totals up to a foot of snow or so. 

[Grizzcoat]

A foot in 24 hours (or calendar day) is extremely rare even in the Twin Cities. In the history of MSP records I believe it's only happened like right around a dozen times. Heard that stat on WCCO up there visiting my mom several years back

[Madtown]

Rain up to the border on new year's...........

[OttumwaSnomow]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Cedar Rapids has not reported an official snow total in a long time.  However, I have never measured a foot in 24 hours.

Ive been a skywarn observer and in the snow removal  business for 15 yrs in Ottumwa.   Ghd storm was the most ive measured 17.5 inches.  13 or 14 a couple times. This is serious.  It could take days to dig out.  Folks here and contractors  will be in a epic struggle. Especially  with the wind and temperatures.

[Hoosier]

This feels like a sporting event with your favorite team.  All the nerves and there's not a thing you can do to affect the outcome.

[Grizzcoat]

Wouldn't mind seeing the NWS blend model if anyone has it-

[Money]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This feels like a sporting event with your favorite team.  All the nerves and there's not a thing you can do to affect the outcome.

Yup

[Grizzcoat]

fwiw-

12Z JMA-