Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[Stacsh]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Been waiting a long time to be in the tri-fecta on the CPC Hazards map. The rare +SN/+Wind/-Temps combo that traditionally meant kismet (aka Bliz met). Was eagerly awaiting today's updated map and not disappointed. Not only scored the tri-fecta, but a multi-day event no less. 

I just have a feeling with that Arctic air pushing in and this bombing out in northern Michigan we are in for a historic event in some ways 

[jaster220]

Odds of 4+ now til Thur 7 pm

[jaster220]

7 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I just have a feeling with that Arctic air pushing in and this bombing out in northern Michigan we are in for a historic event in some ways 

Just on event calendar timing alone it will qualify. IF things come together (like a lot of models/Mets are talking), this will be wild. GHD-1 was bad for hardest hit (not mby) but pixie dust was common, so the paralyzingly low visibility was absent. I hope we see Jan '78 or '99 style flakes. 

[Niko]

Would not be surprised to have 'Thundersnow." Super dynamics w/this storm.

[jaster220]

11 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I just have a feeling with that Arctic air pushing in and this bombing out in northern Michigan we are in for a historic event in some ways 

N half of Yoopland will be insane. I experienced the Nov '89 NMI RN->SN bliz. That SLP went to 964 mb but further north around James Bay ONT. APX talking a 966 mb SLP much closer to The Mitt. Even 980 is one helluva strong system for these parts. 

[Hoosier]

With all the attention on the main show, watch out for the light glazing potential in parts of IL/IN/MI/OH earlier on Thursday.  Shouldn't amount to much but even the slighest accretion can cause problems.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Niko said:

Would not be surprised to have 'Thundersnow." Super dynamics w/this storm.

Was a common theme with the Jan '78 Super Bomb a bit south in OH where the flip from RN to Bliz was sharp. We may get that treatment with this system. 

[Madtown]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

N half of Yoopland will be insane. I experienced the Nov '89 NMI RN->SN bliz. That SLP went to 964 mb but further north around James Bay ONT. APX talking a 966 mb SLP much closer to The Mitt. Even 980 is one helluva strong system for these parts. 

Liking how the yoop looks as of now...I'll count me as yoop for this storm

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

With all the attention on the main show, watch out for the light glazing potential in parts of IL/IN/MI/OH earlier on Thursday.  Shouldn't amount to much but even the slighest accretion can cause problems.

Just had 3 straight days sub-freezing. Ground could be getting a bit cold/frozen, but tomorrow we go above for several hours, and same on Wed. Should mitigate for the hot box of Wayne. 

[Niko]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Was a common theme with the Jan '78 Super Bomb a bit south in OH where the flip from RN to Bliz was sharp. We may get that treatment with this system. 

I can see that happening. It will get amazingly wild here. Target day looking to be Friday and into Friday nite, possibly lasting into Saturday morning.

My local forecaster just said earlier that a foot will not be outta the question for some parts of lower MI. Was going w/ the Euro.

[gosaints]

Lol GFS. Ouch

[Bellona]

Gfs run looks pretty swift for Iowa

[bud2380]

Drops about 10” in Cedar Rapids and Iowa city. I’d be thrilled if that verified 

[OmahaSnowFan]

The magical run of last night’s 0Z vs tonight’s 0Z on the GFS.

[winterfreak]

0z GFS, oddly, looks better here. Definitely weaker overall. 

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Bellona said:

Gfs run looks pretty swift for Iowa

Prolly b a period of runs here where things will look worse but then come back around to a decent look

[winterfreak]

Looking forward to the amped nw trend tomorrow.

[jaster220]

11 minutes ago, Niko said:

I can see that happening. It will get amazingly wild here. Target day looking to be Friday and into Friday nite, possibly lasting into Saturday morning.

My local forecaster just said earlier that a foot will not be outta the question for some parts of lower MI. Was going w/ the Euro.

"somewhere" in Lwr Mich covers thousands of sq miles, lol. Obviously LES regions will. Would be lame if they didn't hit that. Accumap from earlier looks like a good call at this point. 

[jaster220]

CLE

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The impacts from the low pressure increase dramatically over
Christmas weekend, with accumulating snow, strong winds, and bitter
cold all on the table.

Confidence in the timing/track of the upper-level closed low and
associated surface low begins to improve on this surface low as we
begin to see more and more run-to-run consistency. There is decent
agreement on the general track as the upper-level closed low moves
east across the eastern Great Lakes on Friday and back north to just
south of the Georgian Bay by Christmas Eve. The surface low is
expected to make a similar trajectory as the upper-level low, though
may briefly retrograde into central-lower Michigan on Friday before
moving north. Continued intensification of the low is expected on
Friday with general model consensus having the surface low bottoming
out around 970 mb by 00Z/Sat. An intense cold front will move across
the area Friday morning, causing a rapid temperature drop, very
strong winds, and a transition of rain to snow. Because numerous
hazards are expected with this system, each of these hazards will be
discussed in greater detail separately below:

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Down to 6” on the GFS for Omaha. 
Getting worried we’ll end up with no more then 3-4” at this rate.

[gabel23]

It’s back down to reality. There is no way we receive what the gfs was showing last night. Probably no way we receive what it’s showing now. The model has been all over the place unlike what it was showing today. Think blend, trends and the euro. That’s my two cents. That and look at qpf forecast on the models, times it by 15 to be conservative and that’s probably what you are going to see. 

[Jack_GradStudent]

After several model runs, my prediction of 2-5 inches for the KC metro hasn't budged one bit. The only way KC--Columbia--STL area can see more than that is if the upper level system can start maturing and begin to take that negative tilt much further west.. I definitely don't see that happening though. We won't really see a classic "comma head" or deformation band; it's really just going to be broad area of lift generated by the cold front at the surface and some strong mid-level dynamics and vorticity advection. QPF has been honing on the 0.15-0.35 range.. which is why I'm going with 2-5 inches..NBM also reflects this range with its 25th-75th percentile outputs. Yes I know the rain-snow ratios are going to be quite high, but not necessarily for entire period that it's snowing because the temps will be crashing as it begins.Was reading this from EAX tonight.. I am not sure what data is showing evidence of a half an inch of QPF.. thats a 90th percentile solution. I really think this 4-6 inches forecast is too high for Pleasant Hill CWA. Tuesday/Wednesday will be full of looking for little wiggles and twists this storm may have. 

[gabel23]

This qpf would give me .20”. 3-4” and I’m happy. I haven’t seen an inch or more in two years! Just don’t go any drier than that models!  

[CentralNebWeather]

Canadian and RGEM are really the only models that have stayed fairly steady for my area. Let’s see what the Euro and tomorrow evening’s model runs show. 

[ToastedRavs]

I laugh at people really calling it a bust when most, if not all, are 1. Guaranteed a white Christmas. 2. Will see at least 2-4" of snow. 3. The wind will make it wild regardless of the total snow, and 4. Just how many think or thought we would see 12 to 24" of snow. Speaking more towards us in the MO and MS River valley area (IA, KS, NE, MO etc..)  Enjoy it; it's going to be a fun sight to see; even if you "just" get 2 to 4". 

[james1976]

I can't keep up in here as I was driving today. Des Moines and Twin Cities AFD leaning heavily toward blizzard conditions and life threatening if stranded. This is a serious and wide spread storm. Very classic! I think we've all been wanting one of these for a long time now! Just gotta be safe about it. Hope everyone can enjoy it from their homes.

[Grizzcoat]

The classic blizzards that Iowa has had -- most notably 2009 - always have had 2 waves. First - with the push of Arctic Air (or at least the beginning of it) and 2nd- a maturing cyclone to the S and E and the trough been negative tilted before it passes due S. ( as mentioned above by Jack)  The 2nd is not happening this time around - minus last nights GFS run. at least not in IA. But 6-8" of snow is still a winner in my book as it will likely be the ultimate for lovers of winter weather = blizzard warning

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, gabel23 said:

This qpf would give me .20”. 3-4” and I’m happy. I haven’t seen an inch or more in two years! Just don’t go any drier than that models!  

Dayam! That's trended wet as hel* over mby. Even half that being snow would be crazy. Thx

[Money]

SE trend is live and well today…jaster might pull this one out yet 

[jaster220]

11 minutes ago, ToastedRavs said:

I laugh at people really calling it a bust when most, if not all, are 1. Guaranteed a white Christmas. 2. Will see at least 2-4" of snow. 3. The wind will make it wild regardless of the total snow, and 4. Just how many think or thought we would see 12 to 24" of snow. Speaking more towards us in the MO and MS River valley area (IA, KS, NE, MO etc..)  Enjoy it; it's going to be a fun sight to see; even if you "just" get 2 to 4". 

Love this post. I was calling total bust last night. Now I'm back in the game. Things change, but none should be totally down. But I do get it. 

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Money said:

SE trend is live and well today…jaster might pull this one out yet 

Need temps to trend just a tad lower. GRR mentioned that is the trend for their CWA. I'm just in the worst place possible clear over here on the edge of the UHI hotbox. Interestingly in DTX's wx on this day history, a storm dumped 13.8" on downtown Detroit way back when.

Also on December 19, 1929, a two-day snowstorm dropped 13.8 inches of snow on Detroit and 16.9 inches of snow on Saginaw ! This placed the 1929 storm as the fifth heaviest snow storm for both Detroit and Saginaw. Flint recorded 12.1 inches of snow with the storm.

[winterfreak]

0z UKMET:

[Hoosier]

As has been mentioned, we only have partial RAOB sampling of the key features right now.  Whether that explains the recent shift toward delayed deepening/eastward track that we've seen... I don't know.  Just keep calm and let it play out.  

The model cycle that I'll really be curious about will be 12z Wednesday.

[Hoosier]

Just now, winterfreak said:

0z UKMET:

Somebody tell the UKMET to find some precip.

[winterfreak]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody tell the UKMET to find some precip.

You’re in good shape with this one.

[jcwxguy]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody tell the UKMET to find some precip.

Especially in Nebraska 

[ToastedRavs]

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody tell the UKMET to find some precip.

 Remember that is 10:1 ratios; so most will have better ratios than that, save for the wind fragmenting the flakes as they fall. But 12 to 15 to 1 is more likely; with some sweet spots closer to 20

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Madtown]

who knows. but my guess is this comes back NW like last weeks after a se shift a few days out. I don't think we see the crazy runs of yesterday, but its gonna trend back a bit.

[gabel23]

24 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This is a zoomed in image of that with totals. 

Expected

Least chance total

I'll gladly take the expected and run with it.