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Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22


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Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
348 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-212115-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0003.221223T0300Z-221225T0300Z/
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw,
Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell,
Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
348 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Wind gusts in excess of 50
  mph possible. Potential exists for snowfall totals in excess of
  6 inches for some areas.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Widespread blowing snow may significantly reduce visibilities
  to near zero yielding whiteout conditions. Drifting snow could
  hamper snow removal operations. The hazardous conditions may
  impact the morning and evening commutes Friday while posing
  great risk to holiday weekend travel. Strong winds may bring
  down tree branches and cause scattered to widespread power
  outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A rapid changeover from rain to snow is
  expected late Thursday evening into Friday morning. Wind chill
  values drop some 5 to 15 degrees below zero at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. If you must travel,
have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay
with your vehicle.

Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this
situation.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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DISCUSSION...

...High Impact Winter Storm Thursday Night through Saturday Night...

Key Messages:

-A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect highlighting the potential
for blizzard conditions.

-Very strong winds develop Friday after the cold air surges in
generating a period of 50 mph gusts (or greater) Friday afternoon
through early Friday night which may result in scattered to
widespread power outages.

-A rapid changeover from rain to snow is likely between Thursday
night and Friday morning leading to accumulating snowfall into
Saturday.

-Travel will become difficult or impossible ahead of the holiday
weekend, especially midday Friday through Saturday morning due to
blowing and drifting snow as whiteout conditions remain possible.

-Wind chill values drop some 5-15 degrees below zero Friday and
Saturday before wind speeds decrease in the wake of the system
resulting in potential delays for power restoration.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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While we have been in meteorological winter for 21 days now today is the first day of Calendar winter that starts at 4:48 PM today.

Now as to our potential major snowstorm there are now hints that the SL may track a little further east and that would put the east side of the state in the heaver snow fall totals so we shall see. At this time, it still looks like we will have a major storm bad but maybe not as bad as what looked like yesterday. Now maybe a snow total of maybe 8 to 12” There also looks to be a shorter period of rain and or mix at the start. We shall see how things look later today and even more so tomorrow morning.

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7 minutes ago, Niko said:
DISCUSSION...

...High Impact Winter Storm Thursday Night through Saturday Night...

Key Messages:

-A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect highlighting the potential
for blizzard conditions.

-Very strong winds develop Friday after the cold air surges in
generating a period of 50 mph gusts (or greater) Friday afternoon
through early Friday night which may result in scattered to
widespread power outages.

-A rapid changeover from rain to snow is likely between Thursday
night and Friday morning leading to accumulating snowfall into
Saturday.

-Travel will become difficult or impossible ahead of the holiday
weekend, especially midday Friday through Saturday morning due to
blowing and drifting snow as whiteout conditions remain possible.

-Wind chill values drop some 5-15 degrees below zero Friday and
Saturday before wind speeds decrease in the wake of the system
resulting in potential delays for power restoration.

You, Jaster, Stach and the rest of the Michigan crew are going to get rocked.  Blizzard Watch by this afternoon I would think?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_10.png

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EAX morning write up:

- A Winter Storm Warning is in effect starting tonight for several
inches of snow and strong winds resulting in hazardous winter
weather conditions.

- Very cold temperatures will move in late tonight with
  temperatures dropping through the day Thursday. Dangerous wind
  chills will develop Thursday morning and continue through Saturday
  morning.

Discussion:

The primary focus of this forecast period will be the incoming
winter storm arriving tonight and continuing through the day
Thursday. This system can be seen this morning on water vapor
imagery as the initial wave starts to drop into the northern
Rockies. Models have all been very consistent in recent runs with
the trough dropping into the Plains Thursday then pivoting and
taking on a more negative tilt as it starts to mature and lift
into the Great Lakes region. An Arctic airmass will rush in behind
this system, resulting in the coldest temperatures of the year.
In addition, a very steep pressure gradient will result in strong
winds gusting up to 45 mph behind the front. Given the very cold
temperatures and strong winds, dangerous wind chills will develop
Thursday morning and continue through Saturday morning. As such,
a Wind Chill Warning remains in effect for the entire forecast
area starting Thursday morning across far northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri, and a bit later in the day for points further
south as cold air surges southward.

This system will also bring several inches of snow for much of the
area. Several considerations have been taken into account with the
current forecast snowfall amounts. Given that this system will
move through relatively quickly...it will limit the time we have
for snow to fall and accumulate. In addition, the cold
temperatures will result in more of a "fluffy" type of snow which
usually result in good snowfall amounts; however, the strong winds
with this system will allow for good compaction with plenty of
blowing and drifting of snow. Due to this, have kept the more
conservative snowfall amounts going with most locations still in
the 2 to 4 inch range. Slight changes to the track and pivot of
the trough has shifted some of the higher snowfall totals a touch
to the east. While we aren`t expecting high snowfall totals with
this event, the combination of several inches of snow with strong
winds creating reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions
due to blowing and drifting of snow...felt that a Winter Storm
Warning was warranted.

Light snow may develop across northwest Missouri late this afternoon
and evening as a slight disturbance moves through ahead of the
main trough. More widespread snowfall will move into northeast
Kansas and northwest Missouri late tonight and spread southward
through the morning, likely impacting the morning commute. The
heaviest snowfall will occur late Thursday morning into the early
afternoon hours with snow quickly ending from west to east late
Thursday afternoon and evening. With temperatures remaining cold
through the weekend, snow will stick around through Christmas Day.

Taking a look ahead to late weekend into early next week... Another
trough looks to dive down across the Plains late Christmas Day,
giving us a another potential shot of light snowfall overnight
Sunday into Monday.

 

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17 minutes ago, Clinton said:

You, Jaster, Stach and the rest of the Michigan crew are going to get rocked.  Blizzard Watch by this afternoon I would think?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_10.png

You bet..it looks like it right and you are correct, I would not be surprised if "Blizzard Watches or Warnings" are posted by the PM Discussion.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Been thinking a lot about this setup.  For Chicago metro, I feel like where/how quickly the surface low really starts to explode is going to be a big factor.  If this process happens say about 6 hours sooner (and maybe only a few hours for the Indiana counties in LOT), then there could be substantially more precip pulled back westward toward the city.

After spending a good amount of time looking at the data and the potential setup, specifically the LOT region, I'm seeing some members picking up on the SLP energy intensifying a tad earlier in the S MW and pulling more moisture up N into the region.  Pretty similar, but not exactly, to what transpired with the last Blizzard that hit the Upper MW.  This is a much different character of a storm and the dynamics are still in play.  Nevertheless, I do anticipate some interesting model runs for your area, but the heaviest snowfall appears to be target the LES belts and farther East into SE MI.  If the 0z GFS is right about stalling a piece over SW MI, then I can see an additional wave rotating around the backside and maybe reach my area and up north into MKE.  These finer details will be seen in the CAM's later tonight/tomorrow.  

Anyway, the 0z EPS came in even drier....at this point, 3-5" at ORD would be welcomed in my book.  If there is any chance of a Christmas Miracle to receive more than 6", then kuddo's to the 0z GFS bc it would be a huge coupe but that's saying a lot.

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29 minutes ago, Clinton said:

You, Jaster, Stach and the rest of the Michigan crew are going to get rocked.  Blizzard Watch by this afternoon I would think?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_10.png

They do not do blizzard watches.  It will be upgraded to whatever warning they deem necessary though.  

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My only hope is what Jim Flowers keeps talking about.  A band from Omaha through Central/South Central Nebraska has to verify.  If it does, some in that zone may get 4-5".  May only be a county or two wide.  Either sides of the band may struggle to get an inch.  Canadian and RGEM have been on this for awhile, and that is what Jim keeps mentioning.  Some of the shorter term models have the band, but it moves on the next run.  May get a nice surprise this evening or another disappointment and a completed dud.  We'll see.  One positive, we have a very fluffy light snow ongoing this morning at 7 degrees.  It is only about 1/8" but it's something.

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1 minute ago, Stacsh said:

They do not do blizzard watches.  It will be upgraded to whatever warning they deem necessary though.  

That is correct the NWS dose not have a blizzard watch. To be a Blizzard What Is a Blizzard? The National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm with large amounts of snow or blowing snow, winds greater than 35 mph (56 kph), and visibility of less than ¼ mile (0.4 km) for at least three hours

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3 minutes ago, westMJim said:

That is correct the NWS dose not have a blizzard watch. To be a Blizzard What Is a Blizzard? The National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm with large amounts of snow or blowing snow, winds greater than 35 mph (56 kph), and visibility of less than ¼ mile (0.4 km) for at least three hours

Was hoping for a huge amount of snow, but looking at the heavy rain and warmth for next week....kind of hope we get less as it is going to be an ugly, foggy mess.

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4 minutes ago, westMJim said:

That is correct the NWS dose not have a blizzard watch. To be a Blizzard What Is a Blizzard? The National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm with large amounts of snow or blowing snow, winds greater than 35 mph (56 kph), and visibility of less than ¼ mile (0.4 km) for at least three hours

My understanding and pretty confident that the amount of snow has absolutely no effect in warnings. Only 35mph winds with vis less than or equal to 1/4 mile for 3 consecutive hours. That's what certifies a blizzard

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1 hour ago, gosaints said:

Haha has Rochester at like 15 inches.  It should start to walk that back at 9z as the spread is huge and there are some giant numbers at the top end 

Your probably still correct-- however KDSM has now gone up to a mean of just under 10"--- and the lowest member factored in  the "mean" -- out of 25+-- is about what the NWS is forecasting here. No Clue what this means (SREF probably crap) but just a data point .image.thumb.png.6cf7be0077706d5cc07b9976f9cba445.png

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 minutes ago, ToastedRavs said:

My understanding and pretty confident that the amount of snow has absolutely no effect in warnings. Only 35mph winds with vis less than or equal to 1/4 mile for 3 consecutive hours. That's what certifies a blizzard

the poster did say "blowing snow" also to be fair...

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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31 minutes ago, Tom said:

After spending a good amount of time looking at the data and the potential setup, specifically the LOT region, I'm seeing some members picking up on the SLP energy intensifying a tad earlier in the S MW and pulling more moisture up N into the region.  Pretty similar, but not exactly, to what transpired with the last Blizzard that hit the Upper MW.  This is a much different character of a storm and the dynamics are still in play.  Nevertheless, I do anticipate some interesting model runs for your area, but the heaviest snowfall appears to be target the LES belts and farther East into SE MI.  If the 0z GFS is right about stalling a piece over SW MI, then I can see an additional wave rotating around the backside and maybe reach my area and up north into MKE.  These finer details will be seen in the CAM's later tonight/tomorrow.  

Anyway, the 0z EPS came in even drier....at this point, 3-5" at ORD would be welcomed in my book.  If there is any chance of a Christmas Miracle to receive more than 6", then kuddo's to the 0z GFS bc it would be a huge coupe but that's saying a lot.

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Big differences between the operation GFS and Euro for Chicago.  Going to make for a tough forecast.

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Big differences between the operation GFS and Euro for Chicago.  Going to make for a tough forecast.

Agree!  This is what makes this hobby fun when your centered in the action of tracking a massive storm and also to see what model wins in the end.  I'm just thrilled to see that our chances of a white Christmas look in tact and the FEEL of REAL Winter conditions will prevail through the Holiday weekend.  

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

A slight bump for some on the GFS Mean vs 0z.  10:1 maps

1671872400-jKfEeQ6vJ7E.png

1671872400-XJ0N0bSs328.png

1671872400-S0vaaAy9Qbc.png

 

I would think that if we see any adjustments, it will happen in today's 12z suite, as all the players that are on the table will be in the data for the models to digest.  

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Another thing to add is the fact that the ground is practically frozen here as temps the past few days have been sub freezing (except yesterdays 33f) and barely any sunshine to warm the ground up.  It is currently a very cold 12F and some high cirrus clouds.  Looking out my window, it looks and feels like a big storm is coming.  I'm going to head out for a walk and go through my morning routing.  I'm both anxious and excited to the model data today and gear up for a fun 48 hours.  Oh, and I have to finish up raking some leaves in MBY and some final winterizing.

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Something else to watch today for the plains is how quickly the models swing the energy through.  The Euro is the fastest and driest, the Canadian the slowest and wettest, and the GFS is in the middle.  I would love to see the models work towards the Canadian or at least the GFS.

ecmwf_mslp_wind_us_13.png

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The NAM still sucks for KC but it did almost double my totals vs 6z so maybe its moving towards the GFS.

snku_acc.us_c.png

There are those bands again that the Canadian and RGEM keep putting out.  Looks like one in my vicinity and one in your area.  We are either going to be happy or sad depending on their position.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

You, Jaster, Stach and the rest of the Michigan crew are going to get rocked.  Blizzard Watch by this afternoon I would think?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_10.png

They discontinued the use of Bliz Watches. Always dreamed of sitting under one (which Chicago had for several days ahead of GHD-1), but that dream sailed. Would surely have been my best shot, and in Detroit of all places. After GHD-1 there were perhaps one or two other small ones out west in the Dakotas before they retired that headline. I'm sure GRR pushed for it, like eliminating the use of LES warnings for their CWA.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, jaster220 said:

They discontinued the use of Bliz Watches. Always dreamed of sitting under one (which Chicago had for several days ahead of GHD-1), but that dream sailed. Would surely have been my best shot, and in Detroit of all places. After GHD-1 there were perhaps one or two other small ones out west in the Dakotas before they retired that headline. I'm sure GRR pushed for it, like eliminating the use of LES warnings for their CWA.

GRR mention this going more east with heavier snows east of here, but the model runs have upped my totals.  Very confusing.  

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My day asked me my prediction for this on Monday afternoon, and I told him I'd guess 3-6" will be about where it ends up. 

Man I'm good!!

But in all seriousness, looking forward to a nice snowfall! Not the wind and cold as much. As if my dog didn't hate going outside enough...

I'm just glad we're actually going to have a white Christmas! And like a legit one - not just some piles on snow here or there. I'm sure it's happened more recently than I would think, but it sure feels like we don't get those too often anymore.

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9 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

My day asked me my prediction for this on Monday afternoon, and I told him I'd guess 3-6" will be about where it ends up. 

Man I'm good!!

But in all seriousness, looking forward to a nice snowfall! Not the wind and cold as much. As if my dog didn't hate going outside enough...

I'm just glad we're actually going to have a white Christmas! And like a legit one - not just some piles on snow here or there. I'm sure it's happened more recently than I would think, but it sure feels like we don't get those too often anymore.

Agree 100%

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