Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[shakjen]

Started snowing here at 8:30. Time will tell what we end up with. I’m guessing 2-3. Although it does seem to be moving slower than advertised so maybe we can squeak out another inch. 

[Iceresistance]

I have posted a video on the snow this morning, it's currently 8°F outside, wind chill is -12°F. 

[Clinton]

Heavy snow falling and the wind is blowing hard.  Temp is down to 1 with a WC of -16.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Meso Discussion for heavy snow

Mesoscale Discussion 2059
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0627 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

   Areas affected...northeast through west central Missouri and
   adjacent east central Kansas...southeastern Iowa and west central
   Illinois

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 221227Z - 221700Z

   SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy snow with gusty winds may
   contribute to near blizzard conditions, at times, while spreading
   across areas around and southwest of the Kansas City metro toward
   the Hannibal/Quincy, Columbia/Jefferson City and Lake of the Ozarks
   vicinities through 10-11 AM CST.

   DISCUSSION...To this point the advancement of the sharp surface
   frontal zone has been more rapid southward into the southern Great
   Plains (beneath 40-50 kt northerly flow around 850 mb) than
   southeastward into the lower Missouri Valley.  This appears likely
   to remain the case into midday, when the front is forecast to have
   surged across much of central Texas, while only approaching the east
   central Missouri into northwestern Arkansas vicinity.

   Atop the shallow, but gradually deepening cold surface-based air
   mass (including surface temps falling from above freezing to the
   single digits and sub-zero), a remnant warm (albeit sub-freezing)
   and dry layer lingers (roughly centered near 700 mb) across southern
   /eastern Kansas through the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley
   vicinity.  This is in advance of a band of moderate to perhaps
   occasionally heavy snow that has been supported by strong enough
   mid-level frontogenetic forcing to overcome the warm/dry layer.

   The Rapid Refresh suggests that this forcing may weaken as the
   intense mid-level short wave trough digging through the northern
   Great Plains takes on more a neutral tilt this morning.  However, it
   is forecast to gradually become better aligned with frontogenetic
   forcing in the 850-700 mb layer, across west central into
   northeastern Missouri.  Beneath increasingly difluent and divergent
   upper flow, this may be accompanied by a period of maximizing lift
   in the mid-level layers around -15C, most conducive to dendritic ice
   crystal growth and substantive aggregation before reaching the
   surface. 

   Although the dendritic growth zone is forecast to lower with
   continued significant lower/mid-tropospheric cooling, and
   precipitable water may tend to quickly decrease below .30 inches, at
   least a 1 or 2 hour period of heavy snow rates around or in excess
   of 1 inch per hour appears possible, as the evolving band of snow
   spreads eastward.  While the more substantive strengthening of
   northwesterly low-level flow into the lower Missouri/middle
   Mississippi Valley will probably occur well in its wake, forecast
   soundings suggest surface gusts on the order of 25-30+ kts may still
   accompany this band, contributing to occasional sharply reduced
   visibilities in blowing and drifting snow.

   ..Kerr.. 12/22/2022

Should be plenty of these to come..stay tuned

[jaster220]

Stage is set. Helluva baro-clinic zone right there!

[FV-Mike]

snow starting to fall

[bud2380]

Just drove into work from Tiffin to Cedar Rapids.  I380 was overall in good driving conditions all things considered.  In town driving was much worse.  Overall though so far, conditions are not too bad.  If the winds pickup later though maybe it will be a different story.  It's windy now, but not anything unusual for a winter storm.  

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, sumweatherdude said:

Unfortunately, based on what I'm seeing out my window, this seems to be way overdone.  I guess with the wind, it's hard to tell.  But this map shows 6 inches for me, and I just don't think there's any chance at all we're getting there.  It's been a nice snow this morning.  But nowhere near 6 inches. 

The radar looked good for you earlier this morning but that heavier band got pulled to your south pretty quick.  The same thing may happen here aswell.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Snowblower on its way back!!

[bainbridgekid]

First flurry in Deerfield, IL just now. Going to be a wild day despite the huge reduction in potential snow from a couple days ago.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Madtown said:

7" down over night 

Postcard moment!  Beautiful 

[Tom]

1st flakes of the season for me…very curious to see how things pan out…

[OmahaSnowFan]

Shocking!

[CentralNebWeather]

Couple of pics. 

[Tony]

Radar starting to light up to the SW so just a matter of time before it starts to increase in intensity. Looks to be an earlier onset for snow which hopefully will be a good sign down the line.

[Jayhawker85]

Storm is over now. The heavy band blew through and the banding never setup. Looks about 1-1.5 inches on the ground:( welp at least we will have a white Christmas but very disappointed how this storm evolved compared to how it performed last cycle 

[tStacsh]

NAM still juicy for most of Michigan.  15-1 ratios will certainly add up.

[james1976]

.9" overnight gives me 7.4" for a final total. Really happy how this turned out. @Tom snow depth has to be a solid 15" at least. I'd say we prolly had atleast 8" before this storm.

[james1976]

Heavy wording from MPX. Wow

KEY MESSAGES:

- Life threatening event with whiteout conditions and dangerously
cold wind chills will develop later today and last through Friday
night. Please don`t travel.

- The worst conditions are expected Friday afternoon, as wind gusts
increase 40 to near 50 mph. Please don`t travel.

- Another round of light snow will move in Sunday night and could
impact the Monday morning commute.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...The table has been set for the upcoming
ground blizzard in the sense that another several inches of light
and fluffy snow fell across the region yesterday and overnight. The
amount of blowable snow is quite astounding, which is why confidence
is high in the whiteout conditions forecast for much of the region
starting later today and lasting through Friday night. We`ve been
talking about this event for several days, and there really isn`t
much else to say. Arctic air will move in with strengthening winds
as a storm system rapidly intensifies across the Great Lakes, leading
to many hours of 40+ mph wind gusts. We anticipate roads to become
impassible as they drift shut. Any motorists that become stranded
will find themselves in a life-threatening situation considering the
dangerously cold wind chills of -30 to -40 degrees. In addition, the
strong winds will put extra stress on snow-covered trees, which
could lead to power outages. The worst conditions based on the
forecast soundings will be Friday, when winds increase with
widespread gusts of 40 to 50 mph. People should not let their guard
down. This is a long-duration event, and it is possible that recovery
could last through the weekend.

[winterfreak]

Absolute dud here. Barely an 1-1.5”.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looking like 4” will be the amount. Seen reports now of 3-5” in my county. Local media says average of 4”. 

[Hawkeye]

I ended with only 4 inches.  Even though it snowed solidly from 6-10am, there was only 1 additional inch during that period.  Once again, the problem is the ratio.  My gauge caught 0.46" of liquid.  The core sample from my main snow board melted down to 0.48".  Shockingly, despite the very cold atmosphere, the ratio is an incredibly poor 8.5 to 1.

[mlgamer]

About 1-1.5" inches here, similar to others around the area.

[hlcater]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I ended with only 4 inches.  Even though it snowed solidly from 6-10am, there was only 1 additional inch during that period.  Once again, the problem is the ratio.  My gauge caught 0.46" of liquid.  The core sample from my main snow board melted down to 0.48".  Shockingly, despite the very cold atmosphere, the ratio is an incredibly poor 8.5 to 1.

Thats what I was thinking when I felt the snow last night. I picked some up and it was very grainy and dense and was like there is no way this is more than 10:1.

[East Dubzz]

Snow accumulation may end up being better than I originally anticipated. Seem to have gotten a decent amount since earlier this morning. 

[gosaints]

4 inches.  Had about 2 hours at around 10

1030 pm to 1230 am where dendrites formed. DGZ is the key to ratios in these cold temps.   

Today's relatively calm conditions are going to lull people to ignore what is going to happen tomorrow around noon.

[bud2380]

26 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I ended with only 4 inches.  Even though it snowed solidly from 6-10am, there was only 1 additional inch during that period.  Once again, the problem is the ratio.  My gauge caught 0.46" of liquid.  The core sample from my main snow board melted down to 0.48".  Shockingly, despite the very cold atmosphere, the ratio is an incredibly poor 8.5 to 1.

Hard to believe. 

Someone reported 5" in Marion, I suppose that's possible, but seems a bit over done.  

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Tony said:

Radar starting to light up to the SW so just a matter of time before it starts to increase in intensity. Looks to be an earlier onset for snow which hopefully will be a good sign down the line.

Nice fatties flying! 

[gabel23]

I’m guessing 1.5” for my area. Biggest snow in two years. White x mas and a fun little drive last night. 

[gabel23]

Another one. 

[jaster220]

Pretty incredible jet streak in play:

DTX

Core of the inbound jet streak over the Pacific Northwest last
evening has fallen within the latest RAOB sampling window, and as
expected, the 22.00Z OTX/Spokane sounding reveals an incredible 192
knot jet at the 250 mb level (sounding max of 196 knots at 238 mb)
representing the third strongest jet max measured through OTX`s POR
(at 250 mb or 300 mb). For reference locally, the DTX sounding
climatology reveals only four other instances of jet-level wind
speeds AOA 196 knots. Needless to say, this anomalously strong
inbound jet will decrease slightly as it surges into the basal
portion of the longwave trough, kicking the axis into a negative
tilt and setting up the early stage of PV consolidation.

[gabel23]

Lastly check out these dendrites!!

[jaster220]

Gotta wonder "what if" higher-end stuff comes to fruition?

DTX

The most recent HREF ensemble mean gust prognostic broad-brushes 55-60 mph gusts across
Southeast Michigan, particularly east of US-23. For reference, the
high-end case denoted by the ensemble max has widespread 60-80 mph
gusts during the same time-frame, but do not expect such a scenario
to play out at this time.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Storm is over now. The heavy band blew through and the banding never setup. Looks about 1-1.5 inches on the ground:( welp at least we will have a white Christmas but very disappointed how this storm evolved compared to how it performed last cycle 

Same here kind of disappointing but at least it will be cold and white for Christmas this year.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

NAM still juicy for most of Michigan.  15-1 ratios will certainly add up.

See how much I can waste on liquid p-type over here in the UHI

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Heavy wording from MPX. Wow

KEY MESSAGES:

- Life threatening event with whiteout conditions and dangerously
cold wind chills will develop later today and last through Friday
night. Please don`t travel.

- The worst conditions are expected Friday afternoon, as wind gusts
increase 40 to near 50 mph. Please don`t travel.

- Another round of light snow will move in Sunday night and could
impact the Monday morning commute.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...The table has been set for the upcoming
ground blizzard in the sense that another several inches of light
and fluffy snow fell across the region yesterday and overnight. The
amount of blowable snow is quite astounding, which is why confidence
is high in the whiteout conditions forecast for much of the region
starting later today and lasting through Friday night. We`ve been
talking about this event for several days, and there really isn`t
much else to say. Arctic air will move in with strengthening winds
as a storm system rapidly intensifies across the Great Lakes, leading
to many hours of 40+ mph wind gusts. We anticipate roads to become
impassible as they drift shut. Any motorists that become stranded
will find themselves in a life-threatening situation considering the
dangerously cold wind chills of -30 to -40 degrees. In addition, the
strong winds will put extra stress on snow-covered trees, which
could lead to power outages. The worst conditions based on the
forecast soundings will be Friday, when winds increase with
widespread gusts of 40 to 50 mph. People should not let their guard
down. This is a long-duration event, and it is possible that recovery
could last through the weekend.

Extreme rarity that MSP and DTW share any event/storm, let alone a potentially historic event like this. And here I thought Winter had been given last rites for the month of December anyways

[jaster220]

15 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Pretty incredible jet streak in play:

DTX

Core of the inbound jet streak over the Pacific Northwest last
evening has fallen within the latest RAOB sampling window, and as
expected, the 22.00Z OTX/Spokane sounding reveals an incredible 192
knot jet at the 250 mb level (sounding max of 196 knots at 238 mb)
representing the third strongest jet max measured through OTX`s POR
(at 250 mb or 300 mb). For reference locally, the DTX sounding
climatology reveals only four other instances of jet-level wind
speeds AOA 196 knots. Needless to say, this anomalously strong
inbound jet will decrease slightly as it surges into the basal
portion of the longwave trough, kicking the axis into a negative
tilt and setting up the early stage of PV consolidation.

JFYI, that's 225.55 mph!

[Tony]

Winds starting to pick up 

[Bryan1117]

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Snowblower on its way back!!

What a dud of a storm here… we should have all known better that the early model runs showing 6+ inches of snow were too good to be true. 

I can’t wait for the pattern shift next week to warmer weather - this extreme cold is a waste in my opinion.

 

[Clinton]

I keep getting some redevelopment just to my west which has kept the snow falling here.  Current temperature is -1 with a WC of -19