Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[uticasnow]

24 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Meteorology is hard.  The easy answer is models suck.  The truth is as they have improved we expect more out of the them.  Some set ups are hard 

Models are just that, models.  They only show what "possibly" could happen in different scenarios.  We all take them to heart too much (including myself) as we love to track what we hope will be a monster storm.  2-4" totals will be about it here in Macomb County as I thought a couple days ago.  I have been following weather since a little kid and usually just lurk around here..  Here's to the next model that brings us a possible snowstorm!

[ChiTownSnow]

26 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Meteorology is hard.  The easy answer is models suck.  The truth is as they have improved we expect more out of the them.  Some set ups are hard 

Exactly.. anybody that says the models are worse now than they were before is dead wrong.. maybe in some cases, like this, the models sees potential, where previously it would have missed the potential, but the models today are for superior than the models 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 30 years ago..etc

[jaster220]

9 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Exactly.. anybody that says the models are worse now than they were before is dead wrong.. maybe in some cases, like this, the models sees potential, where previously it would have missed the potential, but the models today are for superior than the models 10 years ago, 20 years ago, 30 years ago..etc

If you go back decades as you have, yes we get more of a picture painted farther out than we did back then. But just remembering how they portrayed the potential of GHD-2 in the 7-ish day range I much preferred that approach/output.

Here's a d6.5 map by the GFS. It wasn't showing 3 ft of snow like it would be today. You had an idea of a storm and track. Amounts increased in the coming days and by d2 the models were pretty darn accurate with the actual outcome. 

 

[ChiTownSnow]

33 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

If you go back decades as you have, yes we get more of a picture painted farther out than we did back then. But just remembering how they portrayed the potential of GHD-2 in the 7-ish day range I much preferred that approach/output.

Here's a d6.5 map by the GFS. It wasn't showing 3 ft of snow like it would be today. You had an idea of a storm and track. Amounts increased in the coming days and by d2 the models were pretty darn accurate with the actual outcome. 

 

But this wasn't accurate at all. Based on what ended up happening.

For the current storm:  given the pattern the 1-2 ft was a very plausible outcome, that both the models and human forecasters saw as a real threat.

In both cases, the models accurately "corrected" itself as time went on

The lesson learned (again) is that the models are not as accurate as we want it to be more than four or five days out. Instead, it gives you an idea of the pattern and the potential and should be used that way.

Even so, They are far better than human forecasting at that range (as the NWS wouldn't have done what they did) I think there was some red flags that NWS saw within 56-72 hours, but not enough to Trump the model forecast

 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

The great blizzard of 2022.  

At least you have a nice solid looks like true winter snow cover. Not bliz conditions in that pic obviously, but far from mostly bare ground like east side of the state. 

[gimmesnow]

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Lake effect isn’t panning out either.  Dry tiny flakes hardly accumulating.  Just blowing around.  It’s pretty and I prefer this outcome.  But man the global models whiffed bad the day before.  Even the NAM yesterday afternoon was giving 8 inches by this morning before it dried up as well 

What's going on with meteorology lately? Wunderground thinks it's more important to tell me about going out on lake Michigan and having the lake mist freeze and capsize my boat (which I don't have and I assume 99.99% of people don't have boats and go out on Michigan in this weather than the wind chill warning about 10 minutes until frostbite or the winter storm). Accuweather held on to 10-15in of snow for me until a day before until they lowered it to 6-10 and finally ended more like 4-8, which we barely got 4in here.

I know it's their job to hype stuff up and get ratings and hits but mainstream meteorologists did an astronomically bad job. We're finally going to have a white Christmas here, but this forecast was absurd. People planned their lives around 10-15 inches of snow around here and some of them got less than 2in out of this.

[jaster220]

52 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

But this wasn't accurate at all. Based on what ended up happening.

For the current storm:  given the pattern the 1-2 ft was a very plausible outcome, that both the models and human forecasters saw as a real threat.

In both cases, the models accurately "corrected" itself as time went on

The lesson learned (again) is that the models are not as accurate as we want it to be more than four or five days out. Instead, it gives you an idea of the pattern and the potential and should be used that way.

Even so, They are far better than human forecasting at that range (as the NWS wouldn't have done what they did) I think there was some red flags that NWS saw within 56-72 hours, but not enough to Trump the model forecast

 

Yep, ORD and other offices smelled the GFS's troll job with the huge storm portrayed for that region just as soon as they went all-in on their headlines. As posted, storm forecasting is still very challenging, and I sympathize with those in the profession in these situations. But I'm not interested in following models where everything turns turd. Help yourself to that if you so choose.   

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

What's going on with meteorology lately? Wunderground thinks it's more important to tell me about going out on lake Michigan and having the lake mist freeze and capsize my boat (which I don't have and I assume 99.99% of people don't have boats and go out on Michigan in this weather than the wind chill warning about 10 minutes until frostbite or the winter storm). Accuweather held on to 10-15in of snow for me until a day before until they lowered it to 6-10 and finally ended more like 4-8, which we barely got 4in here.

I know it's their job to hype stuff up and get ratings and hits but mainstream meteorologists did an astronomically bad job. We're finally going to have a white Christmas here, but this forecast was absurd. People planned their lives around 10-15 inches of snow around here and some of them got less than 2in out of this.

BUT! The models are much better these days 

[Stacsh]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

BUT! The models are much better these days 

Yup twice as much snow forecasted this weekend than last weekend.  Complete opposite happened.  
I still fully expect decent snow rate later and a couple more inches of accumulation through tomorrow morning.  
 

it does make for a wonderful winter landscape.  Just can’t go outside 

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Yup twice as much snow forecasted this weekend than last weekend.  Complete opposite happened.  
I still fully expect decent snow rate later and a couple more inches of accumulation through tomorrow morning.  
 

it does make for a wonderful winter landscape.  Just can’t go outside 

Winds back-down a bit and you get a better direction, you may do best Saturday night, lol

[Stacsh]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Winds back-down a bit and you get a better direction, you may do best Saturday night, lol

Maybe,  just super dry.  This would be pure lake effect which rarely adds up here without a boost from a wave or moisture.  

[ChiTownSnow]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yep, ORD and other offices smelled the GFS's troll job with the huge storm portrayed for that region just as soon as they went all-in on their headlines. As posted, storm forecasting is still very challenging, and I sympathize with those in the profession in these situations. But I'm not interested in following models where everything turns turd. Help yourself to that if you so choose.   

Exactly they saw it ,but there was so much uncertainty still, They kept the headline which is probably smart anyway given the cold and wind.  

What made it even harder is it wasn't just the GFS. The euro was the first one to show the big dog and the euro holds a little bit more weight I think.

[jaster220]

12 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Exactly they saw it ,but there was so much uncertainty still, They kept the headline which is probably smart anyway given the cold and wind.  

What made it even harder is it wasn't just the GFS. The euro was the first one to show the big dog and the euro holds a little bit more weight I think.

I didn't save too many Euro snow maps as it never really had Detroit getting much. But yeah, the one I have from last Sunday night shows Chicago with 10+. As this got closer, the snow south of me started to erode from the maps - never a good sign when IN and OH look weak. Puts mby riding the southern fringe and that's low confidence zone, thus our 1.5" or whatever this will end up being. 

[ChiTownSnow]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I didn't save too many Euro snow maps as it never really had Detroit getting much. But yeah, the one I have from last Sunday night shows Chicago with 10+. As this got closer, the snow south of me started to erode from the maps - never a good sign when IN and OH look weak. Puts mby riding the southern fringe and that's low confidence zone, thus our 1.5" or whatever this will end up being. 

Very hard for the national weather service to go against two major models 56 hours out + holiday and brutal cold. 

But I give them credit for de-emphasizing the snow amounts early on.  A to least for Chicago 

[westMJim]

Mid day update from MBY.  Not too much new to report. Light snow and blowing snow still falling.  The snow flake size is very small just as I expected and while the winds are not as high as in the forecast here at my house there is still moderate blowing snow at times, Have not see the visibility here drop down to the 1/4 mile range. I have around 5" of new snow on the ground and one drift of just under 12" I did use the snowblower and it made quick work of the driveway. At the current time it is 9 here with light snow and blowing snow. I see GRR did report Heavy snow in their last repot and Muskegon reported visibility of just  0.13 mile.

[westMJim]

48 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Yup twice as much snow forecasted this weekend than last weekend.  Complete opposite happened

And last weekend we were in a Winter Weather Advisory and NOT a Blizzard warning. Last week my car that is outside had over a foot of snow on it. Today less than 2" Oh Well.

[gabel23]

Crazy observation in Buffalo right now. Never seen visibility that low!

[Madtown]

Well let's see clouds moving in

[gosaints]

Sorry to sidetrack the thread.  I know myself I have spent way to much time watching the weenie parts of the models to far out

[Grizzcoat]

25 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Crazy observation in Buffalo right now. Never seen visibility that low!

They had actual "0" earlier. And it appears from the "P" group the vis is mostly be reduced by falling snow and not BLSN-- but who really knows. Still some impressive obs out of KBUF.  Only the 3" on the ground per the 1645Z ob?  I guess all the other snow melted.

 

KBUF 231749Z 22033G53KT 1/16SM +SN BLSN VV002 M11/M12 A2917 RMK AO2 PK WND 23058/1725 P0007 RVRNO $
KBUF 231733Z 22035G58KT 0SM +SN BLSN VV001 M11/M12 A2916 RMK AO2 PK WND 23058/1725 P0002 T11061122 RVRNO $
KBUF 231705Z 24034G47KT 0SM R23/0700V1400FT +SN BLSN VV001 M09/M11 A2915 RMK AO2 PK WND 22044/1655 P0002 T10941106
KBUF 231654Z 24035G58KT 1/16SM R23/0400V0500FT +SN BLSN VV002 M09/M10 A2914 RMK AO2 PK WND 24059/1605 SLP877 SNINCR 1/3 P0000 T10891100

[Niko]

It is bitterly cold outside w/ temps at 6F , along with blowing snow. Realfeel is -16F.

[Ottawa CO, MI]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Yup twice as much snow forecasted this weekend than last weekend.  Complete opposite happened.  
I still fully expect decent snow rate later and a couple more inches of accumulation through tomorrow morning.  
 

it does make for a wonderful winter landscape.  Just can’t go outside 

We are getting hit pretty hard in Hudsonville...I'd say 8 inches since last night....looks like another 3-5 tonight and tomorrow.

[Niko]

Heavy / Light Snow Blowing Snow and Breezy.    Had to correct NOAA!!

4°F

-16°C

 

BTW: Highs today between 0-5F. Now, that is FRIGID!!

[Madtown]

-11 this AM 7yr old and I first down the trail....living babay

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, Ottawa CO, MI said:

We are getting hit pretty hard in Hudsonville...I'd say 8 inches since last night....looks like another 3-5 tonight and tomorrow.

I figured you would.  Ottawa and Allegan counties are getting rocked.  I’m about 5 mikes north of any real snow band.  Just steady pixies all day with blowing snow.   

[BMT]

Full on blizzard out there this afternoon. Happy to have a roof over my head today!

[westMJim]

3 PM update. As has been reported here in Grand Rapids we are having Blizzard conditions. The current temperature here is 6 and while the winds are not as strong as has been in the forecast it is windy enough with the snow an the ground and the snow that is falling to create whiteout conditions from time to time and less that a 1/4 mile visibly.   I took a unplanned trip to Meijer the roads are snow covered and icy but very much passable for the most part at least with 4x4. Meijer was busier than I thought they would be. looks like a lot of last minute  Christmas shopping still going on.

[westMJim]

21 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I figured you would.  Ottawa and Allegan counties are getting rocked.  I’m about 5 mikes north of any real snow band.  Just steady pixies all day with blowing snow.   

Here on the west side of town things have gotten much worse it the last hour or so. While the snow flake size is still small it is now blowing more than before. In looking at the radar it looks like one of the bands has now moved into my area.

 

[Beltrami Island]

My wife's relatives in central IL aren't taking to kindly to single digits below 0 and -30 wind chill. 

Meanwhile we have the same conditions here and the reaction is, meh, its gonna be 30 in a week so what's the fuss.

[Stacsh]

13 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Here on the west side of town things have gotten much worse it the last hour or so. While the snow flake size is still small it is now blowing more than before. In looking at the radar it looks like one of the bands has now moved into my area.

 

Looks like a heavier band is just about a miles to my south now.  

[indianajohn]

[chances14]

Per my county road commission. God bless those who have to drive tonight 

[Stacsh]

been getting bad here.  finally under a decent band.  Whiteouts common  

Shame it’s all gonna melt and be forgotten in 7 days   

[OmahaSnowFan]

Check this out from the Canadian side of the storm.

Also scroll through some of his other updates from today. Looks like he’s had to take shelter 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[OmahaSnowFan]

 

[Hawkeye]

2 hours ago, BMT said:

Full on blizzard out there this afternoon. Happy to have a roof over my head today!

Yeah, it's pretty nasty even in the city.  The visibility is at least as bad now as it ever was during the heaviest snow a couple nights ago.  The open area near my house has been blown clean of snow.  

Update:  A local met just tweeted that Cedar Rapids has gusted to about 50 mph, with 1/4 mile visibility, for three straight hours, which makes this an official blizzard.

[westMJim]

The Blizzard conditions continue here at my house with heavy snow and blowing snow. The current temperature here at my house is 5 with that heavy snow. I will take some snow measurements later. The last visibility at GRR was just 0.13 mile. 

[Stacsh]

48 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The Blizzard conditions continue here at my house with heavy snow and blowing snow. The current temperature here at my house is 5 with that heavy snow. I will take some snow measurements later. The last visibility at GRR was just 0.13 mile. 

I concur.  It’s nasty out. 

[jaster220]

Sure has taken on the looks of a monster lol