Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[chances14]

1 minute ago, uticasnow said:

I just don't see this having much moisture to deliver  large snow amounts.  Blizzard conditions probably, but only about

2-4" blowing around will be bad enough.

Yeah i wouldn't be surprised if the snow amounts are lower than forecasted. The wind aspect is going to be the major storyline in this storm so even a couple inches is going to cause havoc

[uticasnow]

1 minute ago, chances14 said:

Yeah i wouldn't be surprised if the snow amounts are lower than forecasted. The wind aspect is going to be the major storyline in this storm so even a couple inches is going to cause havoc

Yeap...maybe we will be suprised but doubt it.  Here in Macomb County we usually are in the warm air longer when a storm like this comes along and with it being moisture starved to begin with I think the 2-4 with it being closer to 2" is more realistic.

[bud2380]

23 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Crap.  The HRRR was already one of the northern models with the lead wave this evening.  It is trending even farther north.

If I had a dollar for everytime the HRRR was way off though, I'd be a very rich man.  I know that with the system late last week, it kept showing the band of heavy snow moving further and further west.  My parents house was supposed to get 5" based on the HRRR right before the storm hit, and they got about 1/2".  

[tbone8]

[bud2380]

NWS oddly (and unnecessarily IMO) issuing a split Winter Storm Warning followed by a blizzard warning.  I get the reasoning why, but this just once again seems like the NWS trying to get too cute with a forecast.  The average person isn't going to know or understand the time difference between the WSW expiring and converting to a blizzard warning.  They are just going to see that a blizzard warning has been issued and assume the entire storm is a blizzard.

 

Here is the wording for CR/IC area. 

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Northwest winds gusting as
  high as 40 mph. For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions
  expected. Northwest winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to
  6 PM CST Thursday. For the Blizzard Warning, from 6 PM
  Thursday to 6 AM CST Saturday.

[Bellona]

The Euro begins my friends! Hope everyone who wanrs snow will get it!

[Tony]

What a kick in the gut the last couple days of model watching this has been. From a monster storm to almost nothing for at least us west of MI/IN. This was hyped so much that LOT had to issue a WSW for a couple inches of snow. I know there will be blowing snow but no big deal as the deeper winds will be farther east. We are all still hoping for a faster deepening of the storm, for those of us farther west, but I highly doubt this is going to happen.

[BMT]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

If I had a dollar for everytime the HRRR was way off though, I'd be a very rich man.  I know that with the system late last week, it kept showing the band of heavy snow moving further and further west.  My parents house was supposed to get 5" based on the HRRR right before the storm hit, and they got about 1/2".  

It also failed miserably on the monday night system as well

[Clinton]

The Euro is a puke sandwich for KC.

[Bumblin Bman09]

4 minutes ago, Tony said:

What a kick in the gut the last couple days of model watching this has been. From a monster storm to almost nothing for at least us west of MI/IN. This was hyped so much that LOT had to issue a WSW for a couple inches of snow. I know there will be blowing snow but no big deal as the deeper winds will be farther east. We are all still hoping for a faster deepening of the storm, for those of us farther west, but I highly doubt this is going to happen.

Yup.  Not in the cards for us this time around.  I was hoping for a big one.  Ugh

[BMT]

latest RAP - total snow + end of run frame 

[East Dubzz]

9 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

If I had a dollar for everytime the HRRR was way off though, I'd be a very rich man.  I know that with the system late last week, it kept showing the band of heavy snow moving further and further west.  My parents house was supposed to get 5" based on the HRRR right before the storm hit, and they got about 1/2".  

HRRR sometimes picks up some nice trends, but it definitely feels like it's pretty trash most of the time. 

I trust a wet fart more than the HRRR.

[Tony]

1 minute ago, Bumblin Bman09 said:

Yup.  Not in the cards for us this time around.  I was hoping for a big one.  Ugh

All the media really hyped this one up. Still seeing stuff on the internet where this is a "once in a generation" storm across the nation. Good luck to all of you guys that are ready to be blizzarded. 

[winterfreak]

It’s over here. Dusting-2”. Massive waste of what should have been a good pattern.

[Tony]

Don't look at the EURO cause there is nothing to see. Based on this run, all warnings would be removed everywhere. (some sarcasm)

[mlgamer]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The Euro is a puke sandwich for KC.

 

3 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

It’s over here. Dusting-2”. Massive waste of what should have been a good pattern.

It's amazing how systems will show such promise and then be reduced to next to nothing. Never seems to work the other way...

[gosaints]

5 minutes ago, Tony said:

Don't look at the EURO cause there is nothing to see. Based on this run, all warnings would be removed everywhere. (some sarcasm)

Completely get your point although we would probably be looking at a blizzard warning here even if we dont get any fresh snow.  What we have on the ground now is complete powder in the tops 3-4 inches

[jsut]

Being in Toronto this make me sad, though not as sad as last weeks storm did.  Who knows though, maybe this system will also be all rain.  We'll know in a couple of days.

[Clinton]

10 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

 

It's amazing how systems will show such promise and then be reduced to next to nothing. Never seems to work the other way...

No kidding, not what I wanted to see out of the Euro. 

[FarmerRick]

14 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

 

It's amazing how systems will show such promise and then be reduced to next to nothing. Never seems to work the other way...

Every stinking time. 

[westMJim]

The battle of the major weather models is now on. The 12Z GFS at 48hrs has a 978 low over Detroit while the ECMWF at that time has a 982 low over Buffalo, NY. For Grand Rapids at 48 Hrs the GFS has a temperature of 21 and the ECMWF has it at +8. As for wind the GFS at 48 hrs has a NW wind at GR (not good for lake effect) and the ECMWF has a west wind. So that’s how things stand at this time at around noon on Friday. Pick the one you want to believe or better yet split the difference and put the low 980 near Toronto, a temperature of around 18 and a wnw wind.

[Grizzcoat]

very good trends on cams here in C.IA- (compared to Euro-- Euro here is past it's worth- but still gives 5") -- love both the latest RAP and HRRR and they are getting in "trust" range to serious trust as they both are agreeing (rare)---

And for the 13th time since 2001-- my county (DALLAS) is in a Blizzard Warning. They don't just hand those out.

[westMJim]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

No kidding, not what I wanted to see out of the Euro

As I have stated in the past I have always wonder how todays weather models would handle a storm like the ones in 1978 and 1967 of even going back more the 1913 or 1940 storms. looks like I still might have to wait.

[Tony]

5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

very good trends on cams here in C.IA- (compared to Euro-- Euro here is past it's worth- but still gives 5") -- love both the latest RAP and HRRR and they are getting in "trust" range to serious trust as they both are agreeing (rare)---

And for the 13th time since 2001-- my county (DALLAS) is in a Blizzard Warning. They don't just hand those out.

Hope you end up with an overperformer.

[james1976]

Blizzard warning nudging closer to me. For mby a split winter storm warning.....1 for current snowfall and the other for blowing snow.i guess we get a break in between

[Grizzcoat]

Not sure

2 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Blizzard warning nudging closer to me. For mby a split winter storm warning.....1 for current snowfall and the other for blowing snow.i guess we get a break in between

If the Twin Cities gets in a Blizzard Warning - consider yourself very fortunate. Due to the urban nature , very rare. I believe twice in my lifetime-- not saying my age (due the math-- I've been around the block a few times)

I just looked at watches/warnings map--- thats really close, but again think about Urban areas, it's very hard to have a blizzard warning for downtown MPLS/STP---

[jaster220]

52 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

NWS oddly (and unnecessarily IMO) issuing a split Winter Storm Warning followed by a blizzard warning.  I get the reasoning why, but this just once again seems like the NWS trying to get too cute with a forecast.  The average person isn't going to know or understand the time difference between the WSW expiring and converting to a blizzard warning.  They are just going to see that a blizzard warning has been issued and assume the entire storm is a blizzard.

 

Here is the wording for CR/IC area. 

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total
  snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Northwest winds gusting as
  high as 40 mph. For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions
  expected. Northwest winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to
  6 PM CST Thursday. For the Blizzard Warning, from 6 PM
  Thursday to 6 AM CST Saturday.

Bliz of Dec 2000 was same in this region and it worked out ok. WSW during daylight, followed by a BW after dark. Travel during the day wasn't that bad with plows able to keep up. Got dicey with the strong winds later, especially in open areas you did not want to be caught out there.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, tbone8 said:

Hard to swallow all that pink. Bliz Warn based on vis, not SN depth/amt. Cannot fathom that this cannot piece together at least 3 hrs of conditions that meet the criteria

[jaster220]

22 minutes ago, westMJim said:

As I have stated in the past I have always wonder how todays weather models would handle a storm like the ones in 1978 and 1967 of even going back more the 1913 or 1940 storms. looks like I still might have to wait.

Either way, if this trends to another joke storm it will be totally due to the lame models and all their over-hyped outputs. And not just a run or two. Days and days of incorrect depictions. Will make too difficult to trust anything they showed later if/when one of your list comes to fruition. If this is a fail, I won't even be watching.

[Grizzcoat]

Snow squall warning near Rapid City.  Expect more when the "true" Arctic front blast through for posters in NE/IA/SW MN ---  Look at this ob from KRAP-  Katie Barr the Door

being it's "M1/4SM" - (automated = less the 1/4sm) - it's likely MUCH less. Like 1/8.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Tony]

8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Either way, if this trends to another joke storm it will be totally due to the lame models and all their over-hyped outputs. And not just a run or two. Days and days of incorrect depictions. Will make too difficult to trust anything they showed later if/when one of your list comes to fruition. If this is a fail, I won't even be watching.

This is what happens when we try to steal away a storm that was meant for the East Coast!  Not doing this ever again.

[tbone8]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hard to swallow all that pink. Bliz Warn based on vis, not SN depth/amt. Cannot fathom that this cannot piece together at least 3 hrs of conditions that meet the criteria

Yes, and a blizzard is a very dangerous situation. Watched a documentary a few yrs ago about the 77 or 78 blizzard where a fella got out of his stuck vehicle and attempted to walk home a relatively short distance. He got disoriented and froze to death only a stones throw away from his home. Back in 78, very few folks had 4wd vehicles and most were smart enough to shelter inside during that storm. I fear today with everyone having a cell phone and an suv, some will feel bulletproof with this dangerous storm potentially costing them their lives. I let people close to me know to be off the roads NLT 6pm and stay put till it is over!

[Grizzcoat]

For the non metar people - this is what is going on in Rapid City vicinity right now-

 

HEAVY SNOW and -10F. Amazing.

The Heavy Snow is true in this case, not thrown off by ViS. ( BLSN)  True +SN  and -10F-- are you kidding me?

 

[james1976]

29 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Not sure

If the Twin Cities gets in a Blizzard Warning - consider yourself very fortunate. Due to the urban nature , very rare. I believe twice in my lifetime-- not saying my age (due the math-- I've been around the block a few times)

I just looked at watches/warnings map--- thats really close, but again think about Urban areas, it's very hard to have a blizzard warning for downtown MPLS/STP---

Yup I saw they cut it right around the metro and assumed that's why

[james1976]

1.3" so far

-2 current temp

[Bellona]

6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

For the non metar people - this is what is going on in Rapid City vicinity right now-

 

HEAVY SNOW and -10F. Amazing.

The Heavy Snow is true in this case, not thrown off by ViS. ( BLSN)  True +SN  and -10F-- are you kidding me?

 

Hope we can score some of this type of stuff here in Iowa.

[tStacsh]

22 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hard to swallow all that pink. Bliz Warn based on vis, not SN depth/amt. Cannot fathom that this cannot piece together at least 3 hrs of conditions that meet the criteria

I'm officially under a Blizzard Warning from Thursday at 4pm (No blizzard until Friday, but whatever) until Saturday 7pm afternoon.  10-20" of snow.

They mention models no longer backing off on QPF and feel that West Michigan will have more snow on the ground to create blizzard warning criteria, than the east side of the state.  

 

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected Friday. Total snow
  accumulations of 10 to 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45
  mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Michigan.

[tStacsh]

I've found myself looking at these experimental snowfall forecasts.  They failed miserably for last weeks lake effect snow.  So who knows how good they actually are.  Last week I had less than a 10 percent chance of seeing over 6" of snow.  I got 14.5"   So clearly it is struggling with lake effect.  

[Clinton]

12z models for mby, we shall see who wins.

NAM:  3.3

RGEM: 7.0

HRRR: 3.0

ICON: 3.5

FV3:  4.5

GFS:  5.0

CMC: 7.0

Euro:  2.5

15z RAP: 4.0