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Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

bud2380

By bud2380
in East of the Rockies

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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Streets getting slick. Going to be a rough couple days around here. Glad we’re home and not going anywhere. My wife also teaches so we are off for Christmas break. My son is a junior and they are on the activity moratorium starting Friday, no practices or meetings through December 27th. Our school just said no activities tomorrow due to weather. My daughter is a senior at UNK in Kearney and was finished with her 1st semester last week. 

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ToastedRavs
ToastedRavs

Bars closing early tonight in Valley Junction area of West Des Moines sadly. But did manage to get a quick video and a few pics. Roughly 4- to 4.5" on ground. So about 2 to 2.5" already so not a bad s

Hoosier
Hoosier

So how addicting is this stuff? I was at a function much of the day and snuck away to the bathroom to get a quick peek at the 18z GFS. Gonna be losing sleep this week no doubt.

CentralNebWeather
CentralNebWeather

8:45 pm. Blizzard conditions starting. Whoa.  IMG_0931.MOV    

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Tom said:

ORD SREF's up to 10" mean...as @Clintonposted, looks good to me but we'll see if its onto something or not...

Finally getting a clue as to the dynamics in play with this anomalous system

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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23 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Well we now have the much anticipated  Blizzard warning so now everyone has officially been "warned" I stopped at Meijer to pick up a couple of things for Christmas. In looking at how busy Meijer was I would think they would like a Blizzard warning every other week. The grocery section was very busy the  merchandise area not so much. And boy the shelves are very bare. Looking at some peoples carts one would think that they plan on being snowed in for a month. I have more than enough food for more than two weeks. The longest I have ever been "snowed" in was for 5 days and that was in the 1967 storm. In 1978 I lived in a small town and they had the streets plowed on the night the snow stopped and we could drive around the whole town but just could not leave the  village. 

So you were snowed-in, on a slightly longer leash LOL

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

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Posted

DVN talks about snow ratios tonight.  If we can squeeze out some decent qpf tonight, this is where the bulk of the accumulations will likely occur. 

 

  

For the evening and overnight period, forecast
soundings show moderate omega intersecting a deep dendritic layer
which should yield a powdery snow with SLRs between 14-18:1. This
will also line up with a period of 850mb frontogenesis crossing
through the area.
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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

This is turning into a Lake Effect blizzard for here.  Looks like we miss out on the trowal snows.   Won't be too bad.  

You're all about LES - perfect. Share some of the system snow with me instead of taking the whole enchilada. Your loss might just be my gain (hoping so anyways). Less going down the sewer drains as RN is normally best.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z GFS a little heavier for mby.  Again showing some banding across Missouri and Eastern Kansas. 

image.thumb.png.105a4596077999c8ab07ed543e1d401a.png

Drunk GFS Kuchie giving me over a foot - if only, lol. Thought we were using SLR maps so as not to portray "fake snow". Did I miss some change in plan?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

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2 minutes ago, BMT said:

DVN just upped my point and click to 4-8 (was 3-5) tonight/tomorrow.  let's GO!

That seems really bizarre and doesn't line up with their own warnings or snow maps.  I don't know why they are so inconsistent with what they show.  

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Euro a tad north with the SLP this evening, but a tick stronger. Otherwise very good consensus between them:

image.thumb.png.6d0af26eece025d0c61b0d30adcc8800.png

image.thumb.png.632737a7315b9c2de2276e63ba0768e6.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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tbone8 Contributor

tbone8

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Well we now have the much anticipated  Blizzard warning so now everyone has officially been "warned" I stopped at Meijer to pick up a couple of things for Christmas. In looking at how busy Meijer was I would think they would like a Blizzard warning every other week. The grocery section was very busy the  merchandise area not so much. And boy the shelves are very bare. Looking at some peoples carts one would think that they plan on being snowed in for a month. I have more than enough food for more than two weeks. The longest I have ever been "snowed" in was for 5 days and that was in the 1967 storm. In 1978 I lived in a small town and they had the streets plowed on the night the snow stopped and we could drive around the whole town but just could not leave the  village. 

I am very surprised you were plowed out the night the snow stopped. As I said before, you could not see our mailbox as it was a rural box on a post, approximately 4 foot off the ground. It was approximately 1 week after the storm ended that we were plowed out. A road grader with a V blade opened the road. The operator would gun it, hit the snow, move a few feet, back up, gun it and repeat. A Payloader came the next day or two and widened the road as it was only about 8-10 feet wide and snow piled up on both sides at least 10 foot high in places. I wish I had a cell phone back then and had more pics...

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Drunk GFS Kuchie giving me over a foot - if only, lol. Thought we were using SLR maps so as not to portray "fake snow". Did I miss some change in plan?

Even at 10:1 your looking at almost a foot of snow.  It's time for you to accept the fact that your going to get a big snow!  lol

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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tStacsh Mentor

tStacsh

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Posted
1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Even at 10:1 your looking at almost a foot of snow.  It's time for you to accept the fact that your going to get a big snow!  lol

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

GFS lol.  I'd be surprised if Detroit ends up with more snow than West Michigan.  Muskegon/Grand Rapids.  

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

@h36 GFS is now the slightly stronger global, but still pretty close to the Euro

image.thumb.png.bb951a59626723fcee1b8bef3c1abaee.png

image.thumb.png.85155aa0ed9c08ce5211fa6ffd49dddd.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Even at 10:1 your looking at almost a foot of snow.  It's time for you to accept the fact that your going to get a big snow!  lol

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Considering that's the same model that had me sitting on the side lines a couple evenings back, not sure can trust it, lol. Might keep swinging right on past me again. This could be a very rare storm for Detroit Metro. This ain't Traverse City or Gaylord

  • Snow 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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tStacsh Mentor

tStacsh

Posted
Posted
Just now, jaster220 said:

Considering that's the same model that had me sitting on the side lines a couple evenings back, not sure can trust it, lol. Might keep swinging right on past me again. This could be a very rare storm for Detroit Metro. This ain't Traverse City or Gaylord

The more east it goes, the better you will do though.  This thing will surprise somewhere. 

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

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Posted

The band of snow over by Des Moines looks pretty decent, if it can expand a little as it heads east, the areas that get hit by the best bands there will do well with this storm in Iowa.  I could see 5" totals coming out of that band before the frontal snows hit in the morning.  Just pray it sets up far enough south to give me 2-3".  

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

GFS lol.  I'd be surprised if Detroit ends up with more snow than West Michigan.  Muskegon/Grand Rapids.  

No doubt, it's lost wrt the Lake contribution

1 minute ago, tStacsh said:

The more east it goes, the better you will do though.  This thing will surprise somewhere. 

Could it be here?? After I had "storm cancelled" about 48 hrs ago 😆 (right now I see NOH really gaining a storm that looked to be too far north. Them Peeps gotta be excited. LOL at DTX's current thinking. Look at those snowfall maps you posted and how south counties in DTX's area don't match at all with neighboring office(s). Guess can't blame them the way this corner gets screwed so often, like just last Feb's biggie was a FAIL

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

Winter storm to evolve into bomb cyclone as it produces a blizzard in Midwest

Blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings have been issued across the Midwest ahead of a fierce storm system that is forecast to intensify rapidly and produce howling winds and heavy snow.

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist & Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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tbone8 Contributor

tbone8

Posted
Posted

For giggles I took a peak at the temp models around new years. On the plus side, models show darn near 60° on Jan 1 which will hopefully melt off a good share of what is coming. However, temps like that in January usually bring a friend with them to the tune of another big snow event...

j1.thumb.JPG.bcd03057825259efb3ed337d081627a4.JPG

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uticasnow Enthusiast

uticasnow

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, westMJim said:

Well we now have the much anticipated  Blizzard warning so now everyone has officially been "warned" I stopped at Meijer to pick up a couple of things for Christmas. In looking at how busy Meijer was I would think they would like a Blizzard warning every other week. The grocery section was very busy the  merchandise area not so much. And boy the shelves are very bare. Looking at some peoples carts one would think that they plan on being snowed in for a month. I have more than enough food for more than two weeks. The longest I have ever been "snowed" in was for 5 days and that was in the 1967 storm. In 1978 I lived in a small town and they had the streets plowed on the night the snow stopped and we could drive around the whole town but just could not leave the  village. 

The stores are mainly busy for Christmas get togethrs, parties and the snow just adds to the cowds

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uticasnow Enthusiast

uticasnow

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

No doubt, it's lost wrt the Lake contribution

Could it be here?? After I had "storm cancelled" about 48 hrs ago 😆 (right now I see NOH really gaining a storm that looked to be too far north. Them Peeps gotta be excited. LOL at DTX's current thinking. Look at those snowfall maps you posted and how south counties in DTX's area don't match at all with neighboring office(s). Guess can't blame them the way this corner gets screwed so often, like just last Feb's biggie was a FAIL

Expect 2-4"

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