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Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22


bud2380

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Just incredible to see this rate of deepening in this part of the country, and it's not way out in fantasy range.

floop-ecmwf_full-2022121800.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif.2c745311ff7778a02857e490813385f9.gif

 

I'll say this.  If explosive deepening of that magnitude happens, there may be some funny things that happen wind-wise on a smaller scale that may not necessarily be modeled very well at this point.  One storm I think of is December 1987.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Just incredible to see this rate of deepening in this part of the country, and it's not way out in fantasy range.

floop-ecmwf_full-2022121800.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif.2c745311ff7778a02857e490813385f9.gif

 

I'll say this.  If explosive deepening of that magnitude happens, there may be some funny things that happen wind-wise on a smaller scale that may not necessarily be modeled very well at this point.  One storm I think of is December 1987.

That might be the December 15, 1987 storm! I remember it was mild and forecast called for rain (maybe changing to snow) here in Milwaukee. I woke up and it was the hardest I've ever seen snow come down and very windy, the snow was falling sideways!

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4 minutes ago, MKEstorm said:

That might be the December 15, 1987 storm! I remember it was mild and forecast called for rain (maybe changing to snow) here in Milwaukee. I woke up and it was the hardest I've ever seen snow come down and very windy, the snow was falling sideways!

That's the one.

It deepened very rapidly to about 980 mb (but sfc high in that setup was not nearly as strong) by the time it reached southern Lake Michigan and there was a zone of 75-90 mph gusts at least in central IL but not sure how far that may have extended beyond there.

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9 minutes ago, Naptownwx said:

That would qualify as a  severe blizzard 

Anything resembling some of these model solutions would be a real concern.  Unlike Jan 1978 or most other blizzards, this one is coming right in time for a lot of Christmas traveling.  Anyone on the roads would be in substantial danger particularly if they get stranded.  

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35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anything resembling some of these model solutions would be a real concern.  Unlike Jan 1978 or most other blizzards, this one is coming right in time for a lot of Christmas traveling.  Anyone on the roads would be in substantial danger particularly if they get stranded.  

Very good point 😬

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Interesting write up from MQT

By Wednesday evening, all attention will be focused on the
likelihood of a high-impact winter storm somewhere in the eastern
CONUS. All major global models show an intense 180+ knot jet streak
resulting in pressure falls lee of the Rocky Mountains across the
south-central Plains at 00z Thursday. The subsequent track of this
low pressure is still low confidence, but the most likely outcome
continues to be a track into the Great Lakes region. ECMWF guidance
has been the most consistent from run-to-run with the past three
00/12z model runs showing a ~980 mb meteorological bomb cyclone over
central Lower MI at 12z Friday. The same three GFS runs advertised a
surface low somewhere between the East Coast and Cincinnati, OH
representing a substantial westward shift toward ECMWF solutions.
The Canadian trended southeast from a low in Marquette Harbor to a
low near Binghamton, NY during these model runs, but still has
substantial lake-enhanced QPF approaching 2" in our area. Past
experience suggests high-amplitude systems like this one tend to
favor the farther northwest solutions. The latest 00z EPS, GEFS,
and GEPS ensemble member MSLP centers all include support for a
~980 mb surface low in the vicinity of central lower Michigan. In
fact, there seems to be more EPS support for a farther northwest
low center over Wisconsin, the UP, or Lake Superior than there is
for more southeast GFS-ish solutions. A ~70mb pressure gradient
developing between the deepening low and a ~1050mb arctic ridge
nearly guarantees strong winds on Friday with EFI >0.7 and SoT >1
guidance already suggesting potential for very unusual if not
extreme winds. EFI and SoT guidance are also beginning to
highlight potential for unusually large snowfall potential,
especially within the lake effect snow belts. Strong winds and
snowfall suggests a non-zero potential for blizzard conditions in
the days leading up to Christmas when many folks will be
traveling. Traveling hazards appear to be exacerbated by potential
for a prolonged period of below 0F wind chills. Stay tuned
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This mornings GFS continues it's path of dropping the storm into N. Texas and into the Ohio Valley, with the amount of Artic air pushing south it's track seems reasonable.  I think it will ultimately cut through the midwest and into the Lakes a little further west similar to the Euro.  The 0z Euro doesn't quite dig the storm into N. Texas like the GFS does and I like how the GFS handles that part of the storm.  I think we may see a more compromise solution in the coming days. 

6z GFS

image.thumb.gif.8986d75cfd694f9ad1deb85b5eb50fe9.gif

1671872400-dBB7QerUmbc.png

0z Euro

1671969600-WFGhhvlEN3s.png

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Last night's 0z suite of runs certainly kept things entertaining with emotional swings back n forth.  I'll throw this out there as I've seen this happen before many times as the energy comes onshore.  What I personally see in the modeling that will eventually pay big dividends is the energy/moisture that the main trough tracking through the MW picks up in the NE GOM.  As @Clintonjust said, the GFS is very playing catch up and shifting the storm west and, more importantly, the coastal energy that was showing up is no longer there, but instead, it is "waiting" in the GOM and being pulled almost due N into the App's.  

Check out the animation below and you can see what I'm talking about...

1.gif

 

I'm sure once we get past todays runs, we should begin to see better data as the PAC wave will be onshore later Mon PM into Tue.  The interaction of the PAC wave along with the PV just north of the border models will prob begin to show clarity and how much this main ULL digs and WHEN it goes Neg tilt will be the key to see if this becomes a Historic storm.  I'm sure once we are in the 24-48 hr range, the CAM's will be impressive.  Is it just me, but I kinda feel like this season has already started off in a spectacular way.  Just look how the Upper MW Blizzard over-performed in so many ways.  I got a gut feeling this one will come together and that GULF energy will end being pulled north instead of along the EC as some on here commented on a few days ago.  

 

With that being said, look at the 0z EPS/GEFS and how they are filling in the Snow across the Plains and into the GL's...that's a signal the ensembles are suggesting a better phased storm earlier in the storms development.

2.png

3.png

 

 

Here was the 0z EURO...

1.png

 

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Lots of amped up solutions at this range, it's going to be a fun week ahead!

Overall, it is looking very impressive that a lot of us on here will be enjoying a white Christmas with a real deal ARCTIC air mass as the storm departs.  My folks used to tell me stories of the storms in the late 70's when the storms would dump snow and bitter cold would stick around for days.  Snow on Snow was a common occurance back then...as a kid, that's all I wanted but it rarely happened.  I hope that we can change that trend, esp around the mid-latitude region of our Sub this season.

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11 minutes ago, Tom said:

Snow on Snow was a common occurance back then...as a kid, that's all I wanted but it rarely happen

I will not compare what may or may not happen to big past storms. But in my life time here are some of the big ones and I have stated if there was snow on the ground before the storm hit. I have them listed as to the amount of snow fall and location as to where I lived at the time. Bay City, MI  January 25-27 1978 23.9" of snow fall. There was 7" on the ground at the start of the storm.  Bay City January 26-27 1967 23.8" of snow fall none on the ground at start. March 16-17 1973 Bay City no snow on ground at start 21.7" Bay City February 24-25 1965 17.9" no snow on the ground before start. Grand Rapids February 1-2 2011 17.2" there was 7' on the ground before the storm. I have not counted lake effect events from here in GR. Also I will not believe this will be a comparable storm until it happens. 

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43 minutes ago, Tom said:

Overall, it is looking very impressive that a lot of us on here will be enjoying a white Christmas with a real deal ARCTIC air mass as the storm departs.  My folks used to tell me stories of the storms in the late 70's when the storms would dump snow and bitter cold would stick around for days.  Snow on Snow was a common occurance back then...as a kid, that's all I wanted but it rarely happened.  I hope that we can change that trend, esp around the mid-latitude region of our Sub this season.

Are you excited your going to be back in Chicago for this one?  The SW is so beautiful but ya can't beat a big snow storm.

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4 minutes ago, westMJim said:

On a side note I do not believe that there has been a blizzard warning here in GR since the 2011 storm. If anyone has a more recent one let me know. Also light snow has once again started here.

I have been in GRR since 1966.....The 2011 storm we saw 22 inches in 24 hours at our house on the west side. 1978 was another level of relentless snow and wind. I'm not expecting more than a few inches next week as I have been disappointed too many times...lol. 

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13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro ensembles at 10:1

1671861600-ywOkiWi7qgQ.png

1671861600-uti4MdkqSyQ.png

This really supports what MQT said that Madtown posted above regarding the furthest NW solutions usually win out. Lots of ensemble members really illustrating this. Perhaps we will see further west shift in the operational models yet. 

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11 minutes ago, Tom said:

Woah!  I like to see these trends continue...

Looking back at our thread from early Nov, the models were wanting to push the higher QPF totals further east at about this range @Hawkeye was sweating it a little as he was needing some rain.  The models slowly adjusted back west but at the end the storm was even a little further west than the short range models showed.  Just something to keep in the back of our mind as we draw closer.

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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

This really supports what MQT said that Madtown posted above regarding the furthest NW solutions usually win out. Lots of ensemble members really illustrating this. Perhaps we will see further west shift in the operational models yet. 

The push of artic air is strong so that has to be considered but I would be a little shocked if East Iowa didn't do well with this one.

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9 minutes ago, Ottawa CO, MI said:

I have been in GRR since 1966.....The 2011 storm we saw 22 inches in 24 hours at our house on the west side. 1978 was another level of relentless snow and wind. I'm not expecting more than a few inches next week as I have been disappointed too many times...lol. 

I’m also in the “believe it when I see it” camp here in northern lower MI. Looking at some of these maps being posted the past day or so they look to give our area up here a decent chance of picking up some snow from this system but we’ll see what happens. 

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22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Are you excited you’re going to be back in Chicago for this one?  The SW is so beautiful but ya can't beat a big snow storm.

I’ve enjoyed my extended stay out here and enjoyed every bit of it.  I’m pretty thrilled to see that it’s turning out this way coming back home before a potential big snow.  It’s like nature was waiting for me…haha!  Love it!

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3 hours ago, Madtown said:

Interesting write up from MQT

By Wednesday evening, all attention will be focused on the
likelihood of a high-impact winter storm somewhere in the eastern
CONUS. All major global models show an intense 180+ knot jet streak
resulting in pressure falls lee of the Rocky Mountains across the
south-central Plains at 00z Thursday. The subsequent track of this
low pressure is still low confidence, but the most likely outcome
continues to be a track into the Great Lakes region. ECMWF guidance
has been the most consistent from run-to-run with the past three
00/12z model runs showing a ~980 mb meteorological bomb cyclone over
central Lower MI at 12z Friday. The same three GFS runs advertised a
surface low somewhere between the East Coast and Cincinnati, OH
representing a substantial westward shift toward ECMWF solutions.
The Canadian trended southeast from a low in Marquette Harbor to a
low near Binghamton, NY during these model runs, but still has
substantial lake-enhanced QPF approaching 2" in our area. Past
experience suggests high-amplitude systems like this one tend to
favor the farther northwest solutions. The latest 00z EPS, GEFS,
and GEPS ensemble member MSLP centers all include support for a
~980 mb surface low in the vicinity of central lower Michigan. In
fact, there seems to be more EPS support for a farther northwest
low center over Wisconsin, the UP, or Lake Superior than there is
for more southeast GFS-ish solutions. A ~70mb pressure gradient
developing between the deepening low and a ~1050mb arctic ridge
nearly guarantees strong winds on Friday with EFI >0.7 and SoT >1
guidance already suggesting potential for very unusual if not
extreme winds. EFI and SoT guidance are also beginning to
highlight potential for unusually large snowfall potential,
especially within the lake effect snow belts. Strong winds and
snowfall suggests a non-zero potential for blizzard conditions in
the days leading up to Christmas when many folks will be
traveling. Traveling hazards appear to be exacerbated by potential
for a prolonged period of below 0F wind chills. Stay tuned

MQT being pumped is such bad news for me. Uggh. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Last night's 0z suite of runs certainly kept things entertaining with emotional swings back n forth.  I'll throw this out there as I've seen this happen before many times as the energy comes onshore.  What I personally see in the modeling that will eventually pay big dividends is the energy/moisture that the main trough tracking through the MW picks up in the NE GOM.  As @Clintonjust said, the GFS is very playing catch up and shifting the storm west and, more importantly, the coastal energy that was showing up is no longer there, but instead, it is "waiting" in the GOM and being pulled almost due N into the App's.  

Check out the animation below and you can see what I'm talking about...

1.gif

 

I'm sure once we get past todays runs, we should begin to see better data as the PAC wave will be onshore later Mon PM into Tue.  The interaction of the PAC wave along with the PV just north of the border models will prob begin to show clarity and how much this main ULL digs and WHEN it goes Neg tilt will be the key to see if this becomes a Historic storm.  I'm sure once we are in the 24-48 hr range, the CAM's will be impressive.  Is it just me, but I kinda feel like this season has already started off in a spectacular way.  Just look how the Upper MW Blizzard over-performed in so many ways.  I got a gut feeling this one will come together and that GULF energy will end being pulled north instead of along the EC as some on here commented on a few days ago.  

 

With that being said, look at the 0z EPS/GEFS and how they are filling in the Snow across the Plains and into the GL's...that's a signal the ensembles are suggesting a better phased storm earlier in the storms development.

2.png

3.png

 

 

Here was the 0z EURO...

1.png

 

I can tell you're riding the Euro. Cannot blame you. EPS has a surprising number of members that treat me well and some even east but I think in the end the GFS will cave. The two favored paths for strong SLP's one favors Chicago, and the other much less common is up thru Lk. Erie. Considering time of year ya gotta go with the west solutions. This place gonna get their usual shafting on strong S Stream storms. Low party over my head or even west if it's really wrapped-up like the EC Op wants to show. Dec 15 '87 ran up The Mitt. This gonna run up my tail pipe no doubt. Enjoy a great bliz while I sniff the aroma of real snow on the wicked SW winds blowing from your place.

Final call for mby: Brief mix->+RN->dryslot->backside 1" of wind-swept plaster via tail-end scraps off Lk Mich. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

This mornings GFS continues it's path of dropping the storm into N. Texas and into the Ohio Valley, with the amount of Artic air pushing south it's track seems reasonable.  I think it will ultimately cut through the midwest and into the Lakes a little further west similar to the Euro.  The 0z Euro doesn't quite dig the storm into N. Texas like the GFS does and I like how the GFS handles that part of the storm.  I think we may see a more compromise solution in the coming days. 

6z GFS

image.thumb.gif.8986d75cfd694f9ad1deb85b5eb50fe9.gif

1671872400-dBB7QerUmbc.png

0z Euro

1671969600-WFGhhvlEN3s.png

Thx @Clinton for sharing the WxBell fantasy snowfall maps of the GFS. I'm going to save them as the most extreme clownage for SEMI that never came to fruition. The models (GFS anyways) always flash the most awesome solutions right before they pull the rug so to speak. I'm guessing we are to that point, since I cannot imagine a more generous storm portrayal being tossed out than this one. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thx @Clinton for sharing the WxBell fantasy snowfall maps of the GFS. I'm going to save them as the most extreme clownage for SEMI that never came to fruition. The models (GFS anyways) always flash the most awesome solutions right before they pull the rug so to speak. I'm guessing we are to that point, since I cannot imagine a more generous storm portrayal being tossed out than this one. 

When I posted the GFS this morning I noted that I thought it was going to far east before cutting and but I liked how it was dropping the storm into N. Texas on the western side.  My thoughts on this storm haven't changed much since we first started discussing this storm and we are still along ways from a conclusion.  I hope you do better than you think this morning.

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37 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I can tell you're riding the Euro. Cannot blame you. EPS has a surprising number of members that treat me well and some even east but I think in the end the GFS will cave. The two favored paths for strong SLP's one favors Chicago, and the other much less common is up thru Lk. Erie. Considering time of year ya gotta go with the west solutions. This place gonna get their usual shafting on strong S Stream storms. Low party over my head or even west if it's really wrapped-up like the EC Op wants to show. Dec 15 '87 ran up The Mitt. This gonna run up my tail pipe no doubt. Enjoy a great bliz while I sniff the aroma of real snow on the wicked SW winds blowing from your place.

Final call for mby: Brief mix->+RN->dryslot->backside 1" of wind-swept plaster via tail-end scraps off Lk Mich. 

The Euro has been the most consistent IMO, so ya, I am putting a lot of faith into that model.  It's feast or famine in our region to get bulls-eyed by this particular storm.   It will either benefit one side or the other.  It's hard for both of our places to get blasted at the same time unless you get TX PanHandle cutter like we did for GHD-1 that is phased and has a large defo band already present way down in OK/KS/MO that tracks up the OHV.  Good luck to you and I hope your in the game somehow, whether it be from the wrap around or it pulls some tricks in future runs.

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