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Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22


bud2380

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8 minutes ago, Chambana said:

See a few familiar faces here, hi everyone! First post here. Champaign is sitting good right now. 12z GFS has 55-65mph winds over central Illinois, whipping a 6-12” snowfall. 
 

 

Should this materialize it might be the best snowstorm of my life, beating out 2-13-2007. 

Welcome in here. A bigger real estate Sub than it used to be, but pretty centered on the Plains/MW. Good to see you!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, Money said:

981 MB at HR 120

 

So that’s ICON, GFS, CMC, and Ukie so far with a NW type track compared to their previous runs and all bomb the low within about 12-18 hours 

CA62E673-D6AC-40CE-9E7C-F5732D7A7082.png

I hate SW winds. Worst wind direction possible in a winter storm. When you know you're in the screw zone with an SLP running to your west. Jan '99 may be only exception to that rule.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 minutes ago, Money said:

981 MB at HR 120

 

So that’s ICON, GFS, CMC, and Ukie so far with a NW type track compared to their previous runs and all bomb the low within about 12-18 hours 

CA62E673-D6AC-40CE-9E7C-F5732D7A7082.png

Cant read your tiny phone screen caps. What model is that even? You list like 3 or 4 models. Can you not just clutter for convenience and speed of posts??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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25 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Just realizing that?? Dude, you sit in as favorable place as anybody on this Sub to rake impacts. Batten down the hatches is all I can say for SWMI. Looks like this will be YOUR year to make up for numerous lame ones in a row. 

I’m in great position.  But we all know if that LP tracks overhead it’s a screw job.  If the LP makes it over N Lake Huron.  Look out.   Crush job.  

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27 minutes ago, Chambana said:

See a few familiar faces here, hi everyone! First post here. Champaign is sitting good right now. 12z GFS has 55-65mph winds over central Illinois, whipping a 6-12” snowfall. 
 

 

Should this materialize it might be the best snowstorm of my life, beating out 2-13-2007. 

Yo

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3 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I’m in great position.  But we all know if that LP tracks overhead it’s a screw job.  If the LP makes it over N Lake Huron.  Look out.   Crush job.  

For yby, it almost doesn't matter how it gets to Huron. This deep of a SLP will light-up the lakes. Resident time via stalling/occluding there over Huron would take it to mega-crush job imho. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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15 minutes ago, Money said:

It’s the UKMET. Someone is a little cranky this morning.. 

Yep, I'm cranky as an East Coaster weenie watching the GFS fold to the Euro's GLs cutter. I am an east coast of MI Peep so same effects, lol. Barring late-game re-alignments, enjoy your storm. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Personally I'm hoping we don't get a blizzard warning even it it looks likely. There has been some discussion of the last blizzard warning here in GRR. I am fairly certain we had back to back years (2010 & 2011?) of blizzard warnings where the system only gave us rain or a tiny bit of snow. Once the blizzard warning expired we cleaned up on the back side lake effect. I want to see a full on blizzard sometime, but I think a Blizzard warning will jinx it. Of course there is plenty of time for it to miss us completely or fall apart. Usually seeing the models give us great numbers now is a bad sign for where it actaully ends up ...

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Been watching this system for almost a week, unfortunately, it looks to be a monster storm with heavy snow, bitter cold and cutting winds. I say unfortunate because storms like this can cause property damage, effects travel/emergency services and potential loss of life. I was a kid in NW Indiana for the blizzard of 1978 when we got 3 feet of snow with insane winds creating massive drifts. It took over a week before the county was able to open our road with heavy equipment. So, please keep this in mind the farmers that have to feed animals, the elderly snowed in etc when rooting for a storm like this...

591565294_blizzard1978.png.89461878daa588914fa172bf26e8873b.png

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2 minutes ago, Jarod said:

Personally I'm hoping we don't get a blizzard warning even it it looks likely. There has been some discussion of the last blizzard warning here in GRR. I am fairly certain we had back to back years (2010 & 2011?) of blizzard warnings where the system only gave us rain or a tiny bit of snow. Once the blizzard warning expired we cleaned up on the back side lake effect. I want to see a full on blizzard sometime, but I think a Blizzard warning will jinx it. Of course there is plenty of time for it to miss us completely or fall apart. Usually seeing the models give us great numbers now is a bad sign for where it actaully ends up ...

Weenied your post cuz this no longer on fantasy range maps and ALL regional NWS offices are pretty much acknowledging a major storm in the making. GRR most certainly issued bliz warnings much more recently than GHD-1. Maybe not for Kent or all of their CWA (maybe only happened once in '78), but that Jan '20 event they upgraded a bunch of counties as the follow-on LES on a WSW wind was insane. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Assuming we get something reasonably close to what's been depicted, I can't imagine what the HRRR would show when it gets in range given its tendency to be amped with surface lows and also lake effect/enhancement.

LOL yeah. While I am not optimistic to score big snow here, this is anything but zzzz activity for our hobby. I swear if Marshall sees these conditions one year after I move you'll hear me screaming from your place.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_21.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

LOL yeah. While I am not optimistic to score big snow here, this is anything but zzzz activity for our hobby. I swear if Marshall sees these conditions one year after I move you'll hear me screaming from your place.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_21.png

Tons of time for things to change yet. You’re def still in the game 

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53 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

.  But we all know if that LP tracks overhead it’s a screw job.

Even in the 1978 supper storm Port Huron witch was the closest to the low only received 7" while areas to the west received over 20" during the storm. Detroit also receive much less than locations west and north so you do not want the low overhead if you are looking at good total snow fall amounts and there is also a good chance of rain mixing in as well. But hey we are getting way ahead of ourselves we still have to see if this is going to play out first

 

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Hard time buying rain clear back to lake Michigan with the low where it is. I get thermals aloft, and 700mb Lows, etc, but every other model even the normally warm GFS has no rain that far west. And GEM's been the colder portrayal lately. Maybe not such a good model with dynamic systems?

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_19.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Even in the 1978 supper storm Port Huron witch was the closest to the low only received 7" while areas to the west received over 20" during the storm. Detroit also receive much less than locations west and north so you do not want the low overhead if you are looking at good total snow fall amounts and there is also a good chance of rain mixing in as well. But hey we are getting way ahead of ourselves we still have to see if this is going to play out first

 

What you say Jim is correct. Southern half of SEMI got shafted on the higher totals due to mixing via a warm layer aloft as the southern Low shot north like a rocket. But SEMI doesn't have Lake Michigan sitting just west, so the backside can still deliver for y'all over there regardless if it tracks overhead. Plainwell-Otsego had the Dec '90 WI bliz go north of them and still got 27" of backside LES. And a more recent example was the Dec '09 bliz that also was west, but occluded in time to give SWMI up to 14" and full-on blizzard conditions. You guys got the ace in the hole insurance card via LM.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro appears to be digging slightly farther west than the 00z run.

Man if it can wrap up just a smidge earlier, we could be looking at an epic storm in eastern Iowa. But as is it, the really heavy stuff just misses to the east. Still a solid hit though. 

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

972mb over SW MI on Friday.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-1829200.png

h120 has a lot of RN in The Mitt. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Total snow heading into Christmas Eve. Moves ground zero from SW MI (00z run) to Chicago area.

ecmwf-deterministic-central-total_snow_kuchera-1861600.png

Still gives me backside pinks. Too bad it's WxBell Kuchera. Toss at least half of that here. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, Money said:

1004 to 972 in 24 hours. 
 

impressive 

That's something right there. I've lamented through a 9 year run of really snowy winters (07-16) that I missed those bomb storms of my youth (see WMJim's list) and this finally has the makings. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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14 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Man if it can wrap up just a smidge earlier, we could be looking at an epic storm in eastern Iowa. But as is it, the really heavy stuff just misses to the east. Still a solid hit though. 

About a 100 miles further west and it was stronger as it moved south of me like the GFS.  Lets hope both trends continue.

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