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December 2022 GFS-Defining Arctic Outbreak 4cast Contest


Deweydog
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  • Longtimer

Alright Santa’s helpers, put your money where your mouth is when it comes to trends, tendencies, wobbles, waffles, wiggles, pulsations, pull backs, rug pulls, rug pushes, rug burns, ice burns, shifts, shuffled decks, shafts and cavings and cataclysmic climate change. 

12/19 through 12/23

Highs/Lows/daily snowfall and/or ICE accumulation.

PDX and SEA

This WILL be scored by Phil. Winner will have a $50 donation made to a charity of their choice. No joke.

DEADLINE for entries is Sunday night at 11:30 pm PST. 

Edited by Deweydog
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  • Shivering 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Not my final entry, I'll edit on Sunday. I have no idea if these numbers make any sense or not but why not try

PDX:

12/19: 41/34

12/20: 39/30 0.5" of snow

12/21: 37/26

12/22: 29/23 0.3" of ice

12/23: 34/29 0.2" of ice

 

SEA:

12/19: 33/27

12/20: 31/27 4" of snow

12/21: 28/22

12/22: 35/24 0.25" of ice

12/23: 45/35

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  • Longtimer

Minutes ticking away on your chance to prove your prognosticatory prowess!!!

And Mr. Doinko is right, probably a good idear to extend this thing so we’ll tack on Friday for the sake of WAA chaos.

In order to WIN for the sake of philanthropic climatological brownie points, you must submit entries for BOTH locations. Only temps will be scored, precip amounts/type will just serve as personal weenie flexing.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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PDX:

12/19: 41/33

12/20: 43/32

12/21: 39/30

12/22: 28/22

12/23: 26/21

12/24: 32/24

 

SEA (ugh why do I have to do this)

12/19: 33/29

12/20: 36/28

12/21: 31/25

12/22: 28/20

12/23: 38/21

12/24: 40/35

 

PDX SNOW: 0.3"

PDX ICE: 0.4"

PDX CHRISTMAS PLANS RUINED: A LOT

 

SEA SNOW: 4.3"

SEA ICE: 0"

SEA SPORTS TEAMS: BAD

 

 

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SEA:

12/19: 34/29 - 0.5” snow

12/20: 35/29 - 2.5” snow

12/21: 31/26 

12/22: 26/16

12/23: 36/22 - 0.5” snow + 0.25” ice

12/24: 47/34 - High close to midnight

PDX:

12/19: 41/35

12/20: 42/33

12/21: 39/33

12/22: 25/18

12/23: 32/20 - 1” snow + 0.5” ice

12/24: 45/31 - High close to midnight

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  • Longtimer

Late homework! LOL!!

PDX

12/20: 47/38

12/21: 38/27

12/22: 27/18 (midnight high)     1.2" of snow

12/23: 26/18    0.5" of sleet, 0.25" of freezing rain

12/24: 31/26   .15" of freezing rain

 

SEA

12/20: 36/27    4.5" of snow

12/21: 29/19    0.3" of snow

12/22: 28/18   1.1" of snow

12/23: 35/26   0.1" of sleet

12/24: 41/34

Edited by BLI snowman
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Results for PDX, not as many SEA forecasts. Also I started at 12/20 to include BLI Snowman because there weren't that many entries.

 

  Forecast 12/20 Forecast 12/21 Forecast 12/22 Forecast 12/23 Forecast 12/24 Error Total Error
Doinko 45 38 27 25 33 16
26
  32 27 21 21 25 10
               
BLI Snowman 47 38 27 26 31 15
28
  38 27 18 18 26 13
               
Cascadia_wx 46 40 28 25 30 17
28
  34 28 18 19 24 11
               
Deweydog 43 40 29 27 32 17
32
  37 29 23 22 26 15
               
OysterPrintout 43 39 28 26 32 18
33
  32 30 22 21 24 15
               
Frontal Snowsquall 42 39 25 32 45 23
36
  33 33 18 20 31 13

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
  • Longtimer

Alright, I managed to completely forget about this but Dewey’s back to pay up!

Only had three contestants but a big  thanks to @Frontal Snowsquall @Doinko @OysterPrintout for playing during what became a rather historic and slickery event.

In the end, I just did an aggregate error count based on highs and lows and here’s the numbers……..

Oystercult: -52

Full Frontal: -48

Doo Ink: -42

Congrats Doinko on the big win! As indicated, let me know what organization you’d like the donation to be made. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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35 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Alright, I managed to completely forget about this but Dewey’s back to pay up!

Only had three contestants but a big  thanks to @Frontal Snowsquall @Doinko @OysterPrintout for playing during what became a rather historic and slickery event.

In the end, I just did an aggregate error count based on highs and lows and here’s the numbers……..

Oystercult: -52

Full Frontal: -48

Doo Ink: -42

Congrats Doinko on the big win! As indicated, let me know what organization you’d like the donation to be made. 

Thanks! That was the first winter event I've been on this forum for. It was really fun to track it and watch the event happen. The 25/20 was really impressive at PDX. Hoping something happens in late January/February!

I'm not sure about what organization really, anything you pick would work. 

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  • Longtimer
22 hours ago, Doinko said:

Thanks! That was the first winter event I've been on this forum for. It was really fun to track it and watch the event happen. The 25/20 was really impressive at PDX. Hoping something happens in late January/February!

I'm not sure about what organization really, anything you pick would work. 

So we’re animal people and we’ve worked with this organization in the past. The woman who runs it is truly exceptional and the money will most certainly go to great use.

https://ipawditforward.org/
 

 

E0DA417B-9B5B-463E-A921-927E5381BBA2.png

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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On 1/21/2023 at 2:16 PM, Deweydog said:

Alright, I managed to completely forget about this but Dewey’s back to pay up!

Only had three contestants but a big  thanks to @Frontal Snowsquall @Doinko @OysterPrintout for playing during what became a rather historic and slickery event.

In the end, I just did an aggregate error count based on highs and lows and here’s the numbers……..

Oystercult: -52

Full Frontal: -48

Doo Ink: -42

Congrats Doinko on the big win! As indicated, let me know what organization you’d like the donation to be made. 

Congrats to Doinko and thanks to Deweydog for putting together the contest! Looks like we will need another one soon!

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