December 2022 GFS-Defining Arctic Outbreak 4cast Contest

[Deweydog]

Alright Santa’s helpers, put your money where your mouth is when it comes to trends, tendencies, wobbles, waffles, wiggles, pulsations, pull backs, rug pulls, rug pushes, rug burns, ice burns, shifts, shuffled decks, shafts and cavings and cataclysmic climate change. 

12/19 through 12/23

Highs/Lows/daily snowfall and/or ICE accumulation.

PDX and SEA

This WILL be scored by Phil. Winner will have a $50 donation made to a charity of their choice. No joke.

DEADLINE for entries is Sunday night at 11:30 pm PST. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Deweydog

[Doinko]

Not my final entry, I'll edit on Sunday. I have no idea if these numbers make any sense or not but why not try

PDX:

12/19: 41/34

12/20: 39/30 0.5" of snow

12/21: 37/26

12/22: 29/23 0.3" of ice

12/23: 34/29 0.2" of ice

 

SEA:

12/19: 33/27

12/20: 31/27 4" of snow

12/21: 28/22

12/22: 35/24 0.25" of ice

12/23: 45/35

[Doinko]

Should this be extended to Saturday? Seems like models have trended towards extending the cold

[Deweydog]

Minutes ticking away on your chance to prove your prognosticatory prowess!!!

And Mr. Doinko is right, probably a good idear to extend this thing so we’ll tack on Friday for the sake of WAA chaos.

In order to WIN for the sake of philanthropic climatological brownie points, you must submit entries for BOTH locations. Only temps will be scored, precip amounts/type will just serve as personal weenie flexing.

[Doinko]

I'll go a bit aggressive, why not

PDX:

12/19: 42/34

12/20: 45/32

12/21: 38/27

12/22: 27/21

12/23: 25/21

12/24: 33/25

 

SEA:

12/19: 34/30

12/20: 36/29 2.5" of snow

12/21: 29/23 2.5" of snow

12/22: 27/19

12/23: 34/24

12/24: 38/34

[Deweydog]

PDX:

12/19: 43/36

12/20: 43/37

12/21: 40/29

12/22: 29/23

12/23: 27/22

12/24: 32/26

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Seattle will get 3.2in 

PDX: .2in

[OysterPrintout]

PDX:

12/19: 41/33

12/20: 43/32

12/21: 39/30

12/22: 28/22

12/23: 26/21

12/24: 32/24

 

SEA (ugh why do I have to do this)

12/19: 33/29

12/20: 36/28

12/21: 31/25

12/22: 28/20

12/23: 38/21

12/24: 40/35

 

PDX SNOW: 0.3"

PDX ICE: 0.4"

PDX CHRISTMAS PLANS RUINED: A LOT

 

SEA SNOW: 4.3"

SEA ICE: 0"

SEA SPORTS TEAMS: BAD

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

PDX:

12/19: 42/35

12/20: 46/34

12/21: 40/28

12/22: 28/18

12/23: 25/19

12/24: 30/24

Total snow: 1.5”

Total ice: 1”

[Thermal Trough]

SEA:

12/19: 34/29 - 0.5” snow

12/20: 35/29 - 2.5” snow

12/21: 31/26 

12/22: 26/16

12/23: 36/22 - 0.5” snow + 0.25” ice

12/24: 47/34 - High close to midnight

PDX:

12/19: 41/35

12/20: 42/33

12/21: 39/33

12/22: 25/18

12/23: 32/20 - 1” snow + 0.5” ice

12/24: 45/31 - High close to midnight

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like I was the coldest forecast. I will probably lose, but I’m fine going down with my icy ship.

[BLI snowman]

Late homework! LOL!!

PDX

12/20: 47/38

12/21: 38/27

12/22: 27/18 (midnight high)     1.2" of snow

12/23: 26/18    0.5" of sleet, 0.25" of freezing rain

12/24: 31/26   .15" of freezing rain

 

SEA

12/20: 36/27    4.5" of snow

12/21: 29/19    0.3" of snow

12/22: 28/18   1.1" of snow

12/23: 35/26   0.1" of sleet

12/24: 41/34

Edited December 20, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Doinko]

17 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like I was the coldest forecast. I will probably lose, but I’m fine going down with my icy ship.

Not as cold as the NWS forecasting 22/14 for Thursday lol

[Cascadia_Wx]

18 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Not as cold as the NWS forecasting 22/14 for Thursday lol

They just guaranteed PDX won’t have a sub-25 high or sub-20 low for this event. NWS kiss of death.

[Deweydog]

DAY ONE IN THE BOOKS!

SEA: 35/30

PDX: 43/35

[Deweydog]

DAY TWO IS THROUGH!

SEA: 42/29

PDX: 49/34

[Deweydog]

DAY THREE IS FREE!

SEA: 30/20

PDX: 42/25

[Anti Marine Layer]

Day 4 is forthcoming 

[Deweydog]

DAY FOUR FOR GORE!

SEA: 26/18

PDX: 25/20

[Deweydog]

DAY NUMBER FIVE IS ALIVE!

SEA: 39/23

PDX: 29/20

[Doinko]

Results for PDX, not as many SEA forecasts. Also I started at 12/20 to include BLI Snowman because there weren't that many entries.

 

	Forecast 12/20	Forecast 12/21	Forecast 12/22	Forecast 12/23	Forecast 12/24	Error	Total Error
Doinko	45	38	27	25	33	16	26
	32	27	21	21	25	10
BLI Snowman	47	38	27	26	31	15	28
	38	27	18	18	26	13
Cascadia_wx	46	40	28	25	30	17	28
	34	28	18	19	24	11
Deweydog	43	40	29	27	32	17	32
	37	29	23	22	26	15
OysterPrintout	43	39	28	26	32	18	33
	32	30	22	21	24	15
Frontal Snowsquall	42	39	25	32	45	23	36
	33	33	18	20	31	13

 

[Doinko]

I might do SEA later

[Deweydog]

Alright, I managed to completely forget about this but Dewey’s back to pay up!

Only had three contestants but a big  thanks to @Frontal Snowsquall @Doinko @OysterPrintout for playing during what became a rather historic and slickery event.

In the end, I just did an aggregate error count based on highs and lows and here’s the numbers……..

Oystercult: -52

Full Frontal: -48

Doo Ink: -42

Congrats Doinko on the big win! As indicated, let me know what organization you’d like the donation to be made. 

[Doinko]

35 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Alright, I managed to completely forget about this but Dewey’s back to pay up!

Only had three contestants but a big  thanks to @Frontal Snowsquall @Doinko @OysterPrintout for playing during what became a rather historic and slickery event.

In the end, I just did an aggregate error count based on highs and lows and here’s the numbers……..

Oystercult: -52

Full Frontal: -48

Doo Ink: -42

Congrats Doinko on the big win! As indicated, let me know what organization you’d like the donation to be made. 

Thanks! That was the first winter event I've been on this forum for. It was really fun to track it and watch the event happen. The 25/20 was really impressive at PDX. Hoping something happens in late January/February!

I'm not sure about what organization really, anything you pick would work. 

[Deweydog]

22 hours ago, Doinko said:

Thanks! That was the first winter event I've been on this forum for. It was really fun to track it and watch the event happen. The 25/20 was really impressive at PDX. Hoping something happens in late January/February!

I'm not sure about what organization really, anything you pick would work. 

So we’re animal people and we’ve worked with this organization in the past. The woman who runs it is truly exceptional and the money will most certainly go to great use.

https://ipawditforward.org/
 

 

[Thermal Trough]

On 1/21/2023 at 2:16 PM, Deweydog said:

Alright, I managed to completely forget about this but Dewey’s back to pay up!

Only had three contestants but a big  thanks to @Frontal Snowsquall @Doinko @OysterPrintout for playing during what became a rather historic and slickery event.

In the end, I just did an aggregate error count based on highs and lows and here’s the numbers……..

Oystercult: -52

Full Frontal: -48

Doo Ink: -42

Congrats Doinko on the big win! As indicated, let me know what organization you’d like the donation to be made. 

Congrats to Doinko and thanks to Deweydog for putting together the contest! Looks like we will need another one soon!

[Deweydog]

Just now, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Congrats to Doinko and thanks to Deweydog for putting together the contest! Looks like we will need another one soon!

IT’S ON!