TT-SEA Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hmmmm... south winds gusting to 23 mph at Chehalis with 50 degrees. Possible surprise? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Temp is really starting to drop now, was up to 41 just about 45min ago, down to 37 now! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Hmmmm... south winds gusting to 23 mph at Chehalis with 50 degrees. Possible surprise?You only have 2 bananas a day?? You wimp. Lol Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Temp is really starting to drop now, was up to 41 just about 45min ago, down to 37 now! Should be in the teens by midnight at that rate. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 In Tim's defense. The problem we might have is there is a window of opportunity to use the power of the dry air. Imagine a dry sponge that can only handle so much water, thats the air mass. What we dont want is a slow saturation of the air mass if we want snow. It would be better if it was dry today for the better onset of precipitation later tonight or tomorrow. I am not seeing that much offshore wind over here. I am a realist when it comes to this and will admit when the obvious is happening. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Tim, your act is not cute anymore. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have been watching that low for monday and tuesday. It is a little further south then yesterday. Just something to watch. Whenever there is cold air to the north to tap you just never know for sure what will and could happen. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 In Tim's defense. The problem we might have is there is a window of opportunity to use the power of the dry air. Imagine a dry sponge that can only handle so much water, thats the air mass. What we dont want is a slow saturation of the air mass if we want snow. It would be better if it was dry today for the better onset of precipitation later tonight or tomorrow. I am not seeing that much offshore wind over here. I am a realist when it comes to this and will admit when the obvious is happening. In my defense?? For stating the obvious and being realistic on a weather forum? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 In my defense?? For stating the obvious and being realistic on a weather forum? Honestly I am sticking up for you. All you have done is go by what the mm5 and mos guidance is showing. And you are taking heat for it. Lol. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Honestly I am sticking up for you. All you have done is go by what the mm5 and mos guidance is showing. And you are taking heat to it. Lol.j Plus you can clearly see a low moving up the coast right now on the satellite. Southerly flow usually follows a low moving up the coast. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Plus you can clearly see a low moving up the coast right now on the satellite. Southerly flow usually follows a low moving up the coast.On this forum a arctic blizzard. In reality some sw wind. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Winter Storm Watch in Shelton is now upgraded to a warning. So, the NWS sees something that could make this a decent event in areas well south of Bellingham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 NE wind has really picked up here, it's going to snow tonight and stick. Just has that feel about it. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Winter Storm Watch in Shelton is now upgraded to a warning. So, the NWS sees something that could make this a decent event in areas well south of Bellingham.This is going to be interesting. The cold air is making its way south. There is a south wind south of Olympia. There could be some good lift and dynamics somewhere in between. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 This is going to be interesting. The cold air is making its way south. There is a south wind south of Olympia. There could be some good lift and dynamics somewhere in between.Yeah, bummer that I stand zero chance at all, but oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Winter Storm Watch in Shelton is now upgraded to a warning. So, the NWS sees something that could make this a decent event in areas well south of Bellingham.That's the only area that will see snow though. Hood canal is the place to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Temp now at 36, I would say that is pretty good cooling for just over a one hr span. 41 to 36! Still spitting snow here and there with very breezy NE winds! I don't care what the models say, snow will be sticking tonight, this has a way different feel outside than it did last weekend at my location. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ningit Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 36 degrees here with a dp of 33. There was a rain/snow mix in downtown Seattle earlier this afternoon. Seems cold enough to snow tonight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Temp now at 36, I would say that is pretty good cooling for just over a one hr span. 41 to 36! Still spitting snow here and there with very breezy NE winds! I don't care what the models say, snow will be sticking tonight, this has a way different feel outside than it did last weekend at my location.You guys are gonna give Tim and aneurysm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah, bummer that I stand zero chance at all, but oh well.Every time I get snow so do you. Now that I know who you are! You have a shot. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Every time I get snow so do you. Now that I know who you are! You have a shot.Very unlikely that offshore flow gets strong enough through the Chehalis Gap before southerlies get here. And, there won't be any precip til late tonight at the earliest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 I love this stuff. This is a full on experience forecast from the Nws. The gfs mm5 shows no snow. The nam had some. This is the most snow I have seen forecasted with now gfs mm5 support. My call is because of the lift and the north wind still filtering in and the increase in precipitation later I will get around 4 inches. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Very unlikely that offshore flow gets strong enought through the Chehalis Gap before southerlies get here. The city of Chehalis has S20G25 and 50 degrees. There is no offshore flow down there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 I love this stuff. This is a full on experience forecast from the Nws. The gfs mm5 shows no snow. The nam had some. This is the most snow I have seen forecasted with now gfs mm5 support. My call is because of the lift and the north wind still filtering in and the increase in precipitation later I will get around 4 inches. Whole different world over there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 The city of Chehalis has S20G25 and 50 degrees. There is no offshore flow down there.Winds are out of the E here. I know I am not going to see anything here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Been getting on and off snow pellets here for a few hours but it hasn't been enough to stick except for a light trace on the coldest raised surfaces. Interesting to see the NWS increase snow totals to 4-7" up here. Still feels more like 1-3" to me but if we can hang onto the outflow a little longer than modeled it could make a big difference. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA254 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014WAZ001-503-021200-/O.EXT.KSEW.WS.A.0008.140302T1400Z-140303T1400Z/SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-254 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY ANDTHE SAN JUANS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTSIS POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT ONLY LIGHTACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT OR UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...BELLINGHAM...SUMAS...FERNDALE...BLAINE...AND EASTSOUND.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAYSUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ACHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIODOF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO JUST RAINEARLY MONDAY.* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT OR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTEDON SUNDAY. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Tim needs to get a life. Wait, he has one. A negative one. 1 Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sounds like the snow is coming down quite moderately in Everett! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Been getting on and off snow pellets here for a few hours but it hasn't been enough to stick except for a light trace on the coldest raised surfaces. Interesting to see the NWS increase snow totals to 4-7" up here. Still feels more like 1-3" to me but if we can hang onto the outflow a little longer than modeled it could make a big difference. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA254 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014 WAZ001-503-021200-/O.EXT.KSEW.WS.A.0008.140302T1400Z-140303T1400Z/SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-254 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY ANDTHE SAN JUANS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * HAZARD TYPE...SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTSIS POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT ONLY LIGHTACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT OR UP TO ABOUT AN INCH. * SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...BELLINGHAM...SUMAS...FERNDALE...BLAINE...AND EASTSOUND. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAYSUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ACHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIODOF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO JUST RAINEARLY MONDAY. * IMPACTS...DIFFICULT OR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTEDON SUNDAY. 4 to 7" is way too high. 18z GFS makes it look like even 2" might be really optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Pretty heavy stationary band of rain over my location. Up to 0.75" of rain on the day now. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 4 to 7" is way too high. 18z GFS makes it look like even 2" might be really optimistic.Agreed. I think they are still overcompensating for underforecasting the snow last weekend. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Whole different world over there. Its not even that cold here and the observations I use in the Olympics are above freezing. I dont feel it but that dont matter. Pretty strong forecast they have for me. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 4 to 7" is way too high. 18z GFS makes it look like even 2" might be really optimistic.Better call and let the NWS folks know that so they can drop the warnings! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Its not even that cold here and the observations I use in the Olympics are above freezing. I dont feel it but that dont matter. Pretty strong forecast they have for me.It's funny that my area has a way different feel to it than last weekend. Where's Jim? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Agreed. I think they are still overcompensating for underforecasting the snow last weekend. Definitely. They underestimated the Sunday event, overestimated our chances for anything on Monday, and are still erring on the high side with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am struggling to figure out why the NWS has a 70% chance of rain here this afternoon when there has not been any radar returns anywhere near me all day long. Edit: Right after I typed that I looked at the radar and there is some small echoes moving towards me. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's funny that my area has a way different feel to it than last weekend. Where's Jim? Why would he be on here? Another Bellingham and Hood Canal event is going to foul his mood even more. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am struggling to figure out why the NWS has a 70% chance of rain here this afternoon when there has not been any radar returns anywhere near me all day long.watch the water vapor loop. There is action popping up. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Why would be be on here? Another Bellingham and Hood Canal event is going to foul his mood even more. Another hood canal event? This will be the first one. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 1, 2014 Report Share Posted March 1, 2014 Another hood canal event? This will be the first one. Well... from other years then. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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