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March in the Pacific Northwest


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Temp is really starting to drop now, was up to 41 just about 45min ago, down to 37 now!

 

Should be in the teens by midnight at that rate.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In Tim's defense. The problem we might have is there is a window of opportunity to use the power of the dry air. Imagine a dry sponge that can only handle so much water, thats the air mass. What we dont want is a slow saturation of the air mass if we want snow. It would be better if it was dry today for the better onset of precipitation later tonight or tomorrow. I am not seeing that much offshore wind over here. I am a realist when it comes to this and will admit when the obvious is happening.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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In Tim's defense. The problem we might have is there is a window of opportunity to use the power of the dry air. Imagine a dry sponge that can only handle so much water, thats the air mass. What we dont want is a slow saturation of the air mass if we want snow. It would be better if it was dry today for the better onset of precipitation later tonight or tomorrow. I am not seeing that much offshore wind over here. I am a realist when it comes to this and will admit when the obvious is happening.

 

 

In my defense??   For stating the obvious and being realistic on a weather forum?     :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Honestly I am sticking up for you. All you have done is go by what the mm5 and mos guidance is showing. And you are taking heat to it. Lol.j

 

Plus you can clearly see a low moving up the coast right now on the satellite.   

 

Southerly flow usually follows a low moving up the coast.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The Winter Storm Watch in Shelton is now upgraded to a warning.  So, the NWS sees something that could make this a decent event in areas well south of Bellingham.

This is going to be interesting. The cold air is making its way south. There is a south wind south of Olympia. There could be some good lift and dynamics somewhere in between.
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Temp now at 36, I would say that is pretty good cooling for just over a one hr span. 41 to 36! Still spitting snow here and there with very breezy NE winds! I don't care what the models say, snow will be sticking tonight, this has a way different feel outside than it did last weekend at my location.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Temp now at 36, I would say that is pretty good cooling for just over a one hr span. 41 to 36! Still spitting snow here and there with very breezy NE winds! I don't care what the models say, snow will be sticking tonight, this has a way different feel outside than it did last weekend at my location.

You guys are gonna give Tim and aneurysm.    :D

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I love this stuff. This is a full on experience forecast from the Nws. The gfs mm5 shows no snow. The nam had some. This is the most snow I have seen forecasted with now gfs mm5 support. My call is because of the lift and the north wind still filtering in and the increase in precipitation later I will get around 4 inches.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Very unlikely that offshore flow gets strong enought through the Chehalis Gap before southerlies get here.

 

The city of Chehalis has S20G25 and 50 degrees.

 

There is no offshore flow down there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I love this stuff. This is a full on experience forecast from the Nws. The gfs mm5 shows no snow. The nam had some. This is the most snow I have seen forecasted with now gfs mm5 support. My call is because of the lift and the north wind still filtering in and the increase in precipitation later I will get around 4 inches.

 

 

Whole different world over there.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Been getting on and off snow pellets here for a few hours but it hasn't been enough to stick except for a light trace on the coldest raised surfaces.

 

Interesting to see the NWS increase snow totals to 4-7" up here. Still feels more like 1-3" to me but if we can hang onto the outflow a little longer than modeled it could make a big difference.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
254 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014

WAZ001-503-021200-
/O.EXT.KSEW.WS.A.0008.140302T1400Z-140303T1400Z/
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-
254 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AND
THE SAN JUANS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT OR UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...BELLINGHAM...SUMAS...FERNDALE...
BLAINE...AND EASTSOUND.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO JUST RAIN
EARLY MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT OR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Been getting on and off snow pellets here for a few hours but it hasn't been enough to stick except for a light trace on the coldest raised surfaces.

 

Interesting to see the NWS increase snow totals to 4-7" up here. Still feels more like 1-3" to me but if we can hang onto the outflow a little longer than modeled it could make a big difference.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

254 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014

 

WAZ001-503-021200-

/O.EXT.KSEW.WS.A.0008.140302T1400Z-140303T1400Z/

SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-

254 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AND

THE SAN JUANS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

 

* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.

 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

IS POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT

ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT OR UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.

 

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...BELLINGHAM...SUMAS...FERNDALE...

BLAINE...AND EASTSOUND.

 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY

SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A

CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD

OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO JUST RAIN

EARLY MONDAY.

 

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT OR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED

ON SUNDAY.

 

4 to 7" is way too high.

 

18z GFS makes it look like even 2" might be really optimistic.

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Pretty heavy stationary band of rain over my location. Up to 0.75" of rain on the day now.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 to 7" is way too high.

 

18z GFS makes it look like even 2" might be really optimistic.

Agreed.

 

I think they are still overcompensating for underforecasting the snow last weekend.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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4 to 7" is way too high.

 

18z GFS makes it look like even 2" might be really optimistic.

Better call and let the NWS folks know that so they can drop the warnings!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Its not even that cold here and the observations I use in the Olympics are above freezing. I dont feel it but that dont matter. Pretty strong forecast they have for me.

It's funny that my area has a way different feel to it than last weekend. Where's Jim?

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It's funny that my area has a way different feel to it than last weekend. Where's Jim?

 

 

Why would he be on here?    Another Bellingham and Hood Canal event is going to foul his mood even more. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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