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March in the Pacific Northwest


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Just FWIW, it looks like legitimate troughing could briefly return to the west-central US during the late March. Big +AAM surge migrating poleward with retrogression over the NPAC..right in time for Spring.. :). Could also lead to a severe weather outbreak in the Central/SE US..

 

However, this should be brief, and it looks like the cold signal in the East continues into April, looking at the stratosphere and the culling of the PV. Total ugh..

 

Some similarity to 2009 at this time.

 

If you are right this the Eastern US would almost look like what the West had in 1955-56.  Very rare for strong cold anomalies to settle into any part of the country for so long though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The NWS is actually predicting frost for Tuesday night.  The past month has been pathetic for cold low temps for most places so it will be nice to see.  This winter had such an opportunity to redeem itself over the past month, but it just didn't happen for the Seattle area.  Once again I want nothing more than for the nightmare to be over....which it nearly is.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The NWS is actually predicting frost for Tuesday night.  The past month has been pathetic for cold low temps for most places so it will be nice to see.  This winter had such an opportunity to redeem itself over the past month, but it just didn't happen for the Seattle area.  Once again I want nothing more than for the nightmare to be over....which it nearly is.

 

Next week is looking stellar for sure. A couple days of dry, cool weather Tuesday-Thursday.

 

The clipper that has consistently been advertised for next weekend is catching my interest as well. Looks pretty chilly on the 12Z run.

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Next week is looking stellar for sure. A couple days of dry, cool weather Tuesday-Thursday.

 

The clipper that has consistently been advertised for next weekend is catching my interest as well. Looks pretty chilly on the 12Z run.

 

We'll see.  The clipper doesn't look as crisp as it did on previous runs.  A lot of moisture going into it.  Pretty fine difference in detail at this time frame though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We'll see.  The clipper doesn't look as crisp as it did on previous runs.  A lot of moisture going into it.  Pretty fine difference in detail at this time frame though.

 

 

Also... the ECMWF backed off completely on any cold air next weekend on its 00Z run.   Delaying it to Monday now and not as cold as previous runs.

 

Here is next Saturday evening per the 00Z ECMWF:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014030900!!chart.gif

 

And then Sunday... looks like a repeat of yesterday now:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014030900!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Also... the ECMWF backed off completely on any cold air next weekend on its 00Z run.   Delaying it to Monday now and not as cold as previous runs.

 

Here is next Saturday evening per the 00Z ECMWF:

 

 

 

And then Sunday... looks like a repeat of yesterday now:

 

 

We've all seen the EURO, freak show.

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Name calling... nice.

 

I was just looking through the models.

 

Correction. You couldn't stand to see Jim feeling optimistic about something so you had to immediately post images of a model he wouldn't like.

 

As soon as we started posting back and fourth about the possibility of cooler weather next weekend I knew it was just a matter of time until you chimed in with something like that....and I was correct.

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Ugh emerging from my 5 day strep induced alternate hell universe. D**n, it sure rained a lot last night! Haven't emptied the rain gauge since Thursday, so there was Thursday's 0.62" still in there, but looks like well over 2" in the gauge. Grass is really greening up!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ugh emerging from my 5 day strep induced alternate hell universe. D**n, it sure rained a lot last night! Haven't emptied the rain gauge since Thursday, so there was Thursday's 0.62" still in there, but looks like well over 2" in the gauge. Grass is really greening up!

 

Strep is no fun. Hope you're feeling better.

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Correction. You couldn't stand to see Jim feeling optimistic about something so you had to immediately post images of a model he wouldn't like.

 

As soon as we started posting back and fourth about the possibility of cooler weather next weekend I knew it was just a matter of time until you chimed in with something like that....and I was correct.

 

 

Absolutely not.

 

You think I want this deluge pattern to continue???    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF still shows the clipper for next Monday.  

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014030912!!chart.gif

 

 

Impossible to just show what the models show on here.   If they look good then everyone is fine... if they show something else than certain people get their undies in a bunch for even displaying the images.    What I want and what the models show are usually two very different things in this climate.    I would never resort to name-calling for posting a map image.   So silly.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ugh emerging from my 5 day strep induced alternate hell universe. D**n, it sure rained a lot last night! Haven't emptied the rain gauge since Thursday, so there was Thursday's 0.62" still in there, but looks like well over 2" in the gauge. Grass is really greening up!

 

I had it over Christmas for the first time since I was 10 or so.  Seems like it was a lot more prevalent this year.  A sign of the upcoming ice age perhaps?  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Ugh emerging from my 5 day strep induced alternate hell universe. D**n, it sure rained a lot last night! Haven't emptied the rain gauge since Thursday, so there was Thursday's 0.62" still in there, but looks like well over 2" in the gauge. Grass is really greening up!

 

Yuck.

 

Is your daughter in daycare?    Germ factories really.   Toughens them up though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I like the 12z Euro.  A decent chance of getting some chilly continental air in here if it verifies.  If the 1050mb surface high in the NW GOA verifies it should get pretty nippy here.  It looks better with the clipper next weekend than the GFS also.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yuck.

 

Is your daughter in daycare?    Germ factories really.   Toughens them up though.

 

She goes to a babysitter. Actually a lady I used to work with who is retired now. She watches a couple of her grandkids too, so there is some more exposure then she would have at home, but not as much as a typical daycare. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I like the 12z Euro.  A decent chance of getting some chilly continental air in here if it verifies.  If the 1050mb surface high in the NW GOA verifies it should get pretty nippy here.  It looks better with the clipper next weekend than the GFS also.

 

I will be doing another WTA volunteer weekend at Lake Wynoochee (southern Olympics) March 22-23. Could be chilly.

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12Z ECMWF still shows the clipper for next Monday.  

 

Impossible to just show what the models show on here.   If they look good then everyone is fine... if they show something else than certain people get their undies in a bunch for even displaying the images.    What I want and what the models show are usually two very different things in this climate.    I would never resort to name-calling for posting a map image.   So silly.

 

Don't play the victim. It is obvious to anyone what your intent is when you post that kind of thing.

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I had it over Christmas for the first time since I was 10 or so.  Seems like it was a lot more prevalent this year.  A sign of the upcoming ice age perhaps?

 

Guess it is the price we have to pay for more snow.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Don't play the victim. It is obvious to anyone what your intent is when you post that kind of thing.

Always the intent... I conspire with nature and the models just to spite you. I must agree with you on everything and only post things you like. Otherwise I am out to get you.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Always the intent... I conspire with nature and the models just to spite you. I must agree with you on everything and only post things you like.

 

"Dear Diary". 

 

Don't play the victim. It is obvious to anyone what your intent is when you post that kind of thing.

 

... dresses you the way she wants, cause she never had 'a .. dog.

 

Always a pleasure fellas.

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Cherry blossoms in Issaquah this afternoon...  this weather has been great for getting spring jump started.

 

1962786_608185732582972_1443186358_n.jpg

 

I'm really enjoying the weather today.  Feels like early Spring. ;)  I'm also enjoying the pattern shown on the GFS - very diverse and dynamic, just like March should be.  At this point I'm not really looking for lowland snow/arctic cold...thunderstorms, brief heavy rainfall and copious sunbreaks is what I'm looking for now!

 

Let me know next time you're in Issaquah...I can meet you for breakfast...or a beer.  :)

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The ECMWF ensemble continues to become more bullish on a colder and drier pattern later in the month.  I think many people on here would trade a chillier pattern for the soaking wet mess we have had lately.

 

 

post-222-0-33470500-1394411220_thumb.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Cherry blossoms in Issaquah this afternoon...  this weather has been great for getting spring jump started.

 

1962786_608185732582972_1443186358_n.jpg

 

So you've enjoyed the nearly endless gloom the past several weeks?

 

I thought not. :lol:

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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So you've enjoyed the nearly endless gloom the past several weeks?

 

I thought not. :lol:

 

 

Not at all... but I am pointing something really nice as a result of the rain and gloom.    I love seeing everything come alive.   

 

I love warm nights this time of year for that reason.   Trees will start leafing out here this week in some places.       My love of cold nights lasts precisely from late October through February.    After that... cold nights just mess things up.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not at all... but I am pointing something really nice as a result of the rain and gloom.    I love seeing everything come alive.   

 

I love warm nights this time of year for that reason.   Trees will start leafing out here this week in some places.       My love of cold nights lasts precisely from late October through February.    After that... cold nights just mess things up.    

 

Nice. Should this be another addition to the "Tim's Laws of Weather" book? 

 

If anyone goes against one of Tim's laws of weather, he harasses them endlessly on this forum, FWIW.

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Nice. Should this be another addition to the "Tim's Laws of Weather" book? 

 

If anyone goes against one of Tim's laws of weather he harasses them endlessly on this forum , FWIW.

 

 

Nope... I said that is what I felt.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Snoqualmie rising rather rapidly this evening...Looking at the webcams it looks like it has gotten much higher since I was down there about 30 min ago...may head down again around sunset. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is that Fall City?   My boys had a basketball game there on Thursday and I drove around a little beforehand to check things out.   I think I was in the same place and wanted to post a picture but my phone battery was too low.

 

The sensor at Snoqualmie Fall has peaked and is now falling... usually takes another 12 hours for it to start dropping downstream in Carnation and Fall City.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Is that Fall City?   My boys had a basketball game there on Thursday and I drove around a little beforehand to check things out.   I think I was in the same place and wanted to post a picture but my phone battery was too low.

 

The sensor at Snoqualmie Fall has peaked and is now falling... usually takes another 12 hours for it to start dropping downstream in Carnation and Fall City.

 

No this is outside carnation a bit...NW of Carnation across the valley but most the scenes around the valley are pretty simillar. 

 

The first picture with the car is closer to Duvall actually...

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Only a tiny bit of snow showing at the end of the long term runs on GFS. Basically no snow at all since it keeps getting shoved back towards the last 4-5 days.

 

Let's see if this town can make a first time record of no March snow! :P

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Nice. Should this be another addition to the "Tim's Laws of Weather" book? 

 

If anyone goes against one of Tim's laws of weather, he harasses them endlessly on this forum, FWIW.

 

Gee, attacking others for a differing preference in weather? and posting a model run? LOL

 

Surprised I wasn't attacked like that for preferring rain over snow  :lol:

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Only a tiny bit of snow showing at the end of the long term runs on GFS. Basically no snow at all since it keeps getting shoved back towards the last 4-5 days.

 

Let's see if this town can make a first time record of no March snow! :P

 

It is going to get cold later in the month.  Very likely at this point.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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By the time we get into late March most days with accumulating morning snow still end up with highs in the mid-40s up here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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"Cold" likely being highs in the 47-52 range. Not exactly mindblowing stuff.

 

Think he meant the southern Oregon mountains could once again receive more snow later in March. Though I'll believe it when it gets closer to the 7 day window. Models flip flop.

 

Also the highs still stay above freezing like Andrew mentioned above. I'll be around low 40's or at lowest upper 30's allowing daytime melting. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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