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March in the Pacific Northwest


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... your success at predictions of cold air and moisture .....

 

hey "Chris". 

 

Certainly appreciate your comments.

 

With your not having mentioned them although, and so my not being sure whether or not you've noted and are aware of the idea, .. in fact I've continued the general idea that I'd begun at "Western" while it had still been up and running and while I'd been a more active member there, .. here, within a thread that I've initiated in the sub-forum "The World".

 

Connected to this idea, and more specifically, the merit or worth of my projections as appreciated more generally, .... At this point where looking at each of my different projections submittedbroader colder air mass both movement looked at together with distribution focused, and to be clearer here perhaps, posted to the thread that I've suggested here aboveI've in fact provided a basic "follow-up" to each, toward the idea of allowing, even encouraging, whoever, to check their value, even usefulness, better.  

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I think you have more important things to deal with at home with your daughter then being on here doing this.

Why else would I be up at 3AM?

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The WRF actually gives me a decent snow event Sunday night...IDK if I should believe it though...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/or_snow24.84.0000.gif

 

 

Mark discusses this possibility in his latest blog:

 

http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/

 

 

Never heard of an 'anafront' but I know its happened here before as well.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Mark discusses this possibility in his latest blog:

 

http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/

 

 

Never heard of an 'anafront' but I know its happened here before as well.

 

Definitely happened a few times here in the winter of 2011-12.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 separate snow chances in the next week or so here on the 12z GFS. Nice to see, hope at least 1-2 of them pan out!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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hey "Chris". 

 

Certainly appreciate your comments.

 

With your not having mentioned them although, and so my not being sure whether or not you've noted and are aware of the idea, .. in fact I've continued the general idea that I'd begun at "Western" while it had still been up and running and while I'd been a more active member there, .. here, within a thread that I've initiated in the sub-forum "The World".

 

Connected to this idea, and more specifically the merit or worth of my projections, .. At this point where looking at each of my different projections submittedbroader colder air mass both movement looked at together with distribution focusedI've in fact provided and basic "follow-up" to each, toward the idea of allowing, even encouraging, whoever, to check their value. 

 

You're interesting, but so hard to follow.  I feel like I just ran a mile by the time I get to the end of your posts--nothing wrong with it--just an observation. 

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I saw the 12z EURO bottoms out SLE at -7C Monday morning. 

 

In line with the GFS ensembles.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Your [posts are] interesting, but so hard to follow.  I feel like I just ran a mile by the time I get to the end of [them. / .. one of them. N]othing wrong with [them,] just an observation.

 
Certainly one appreciable. 
 
Basically "Poulsbo Snowman", .. what I post online—especially that relating to what I submit colder air mass projection focused, but also what I do more generallyis very important to me. And so, with this, and where working to estimate just who might be reading what I post—at times certainly, and relative and connected to what I've intended to say more mainly—I additionally work to estimate and address beforehand, what I perceive as being possible questions or generalities, that might otherwise perhaps crop up, for whomever, were I to have said I what I had had in mind more generally. 
 
More essentially, with what I post, I'm working to convey both a general cordiality, while also at the same time, the idea that, with what I've said, I've been both as explicit and informative as I've been able to. 
 

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The 18z GFS continues to show what would be about 3-5 hours of very heavy wet snow. Between about midnight and 6am Monday morning. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z GFS is nice and chilly. Shows a stalled front situation Sunday night/Monday morning. Similar to the kind of stuff we saw in March 2012. Snow level could come pretty low with that.

All but one ensemble member on the 18z GFS ensemble indicated 850s dropping to -7 or lower in that time frame. The operational shows about -7.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yes, IF KSEA was at an elevation above 3800 feet

With -7 850s you need that much elevation?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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-

 

Certainly one appreciable.  .. And, I do in fact get this a lot. ....

 

Basically "Poulsbo Snowman", .. what I post online—especially that relating to what I submit colder air mass projection focused, but also what I do more generallyis very important to me. And so, with this, and where working to estimate just who might be reading what I post—at times certainly, and relative and connected to what I've intended to say more mainly—I additionally work to estimate and address beforehand, what I perceive as being possible questions or generalities, that might otherwise perhaps crop up for whomever, were I to have said I what I had had in mind more generally. 

 

More essentially, with what I post, I'm working to convey both a general cordiality, while also at the same time, the idea that, with what I've said, I've been both as explicit and informative as I've been able to. 

 

 

I just think a few less adjectives and adverbs would be helpful--especially, if I'm not the only one who is commented on that.

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I just think a few less adjectives and adverbs would be helpful--especially, if I'm not the only one who is commented on that.

You will learn how to read his posts.  It took me awhile and frustration of course, but if you can figure it out you will find his info is valuable.

 

He is the most accurate when it comes to time frames of cold troughs on the west coast out of anyone on here, and elsewhere.

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Space weather at least...

 

Here are pics from Sunday night into Monday morning from near Fairbanks.  Temps started near -10 and ended near -30.

The aurora was very weak for several hours, before a band grew and intensified.  This too faded around 2 AM.

Then, after we left the lodge, they really picked up about 2:20 AM and continued strong until nearly 3 AM.

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Aurora-39-31014

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You will learn how to read his posts.  It took me awhile and frustration of course, but if you can figure it out you will find his info is valuable.

 

He is the most accurate when it comes to time frames of cold troughs on the west coast out of anyone on here, and elsewhere.

I hate to brag, but I did pretty well with the cold snaps this winter also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The 0z GFS shows 4 solidly cold trough sin the next two weeks. Going to be a nippy period coming up.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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WRF has backed off on the snow for up here. Keeps the snow level about 2000'. The 12z operational looks good for 1-2" at my location tomorrow night. I think I'll probably see some wet snow. Maybe an inch at the most. 12z is a pretty cool run throughout.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Its not a competition.

 

And I wasn't talking about this year.

 

Richard though is by far the most accurate on here the last few years.

No offense, but he was predicting a moderate El Niño for 2012-13, onward.

 

Unless you're referring to west-coast specific weather?

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No offense, but he was predicting a moderate El Niño for 2012-13, onward.

 

"Wrong". ... "Not".  

 

(Where, when. ?) .... ("... hold, up." ?)

 

... I've been pointing to the idea of a stronger period of ENSO activity looked at more generally, being likely between 20..15-17, for 4 or 5 years at this point. And with this idea, had in fact posted this likelihood at the old "Western" when it had still been up and running.

 

... More than this, and toward my having worked to maintain this idea more here within this new setting, I've in fact brought it up within a post tacked to the main ENSO threadcurrently locatedover in the "Long Range Discussion" sub-forum. 

 

(Perhaps you've see it: you started the thread.  It [the thread] was "Moved" to that sub-forum, from this one, with whomever having moved it, not apparently having agreed with your thinking that all discussion here and with this new reorganization and setup should be more "homogenized".)

 

This general conjecture of mine brought upand clarified, .. More essentially, .. and with my intent with this post certainly not, being to open up an "ENSO" discussion with you, here in the middle of this thread, ... (cont., in the "2014 ENSO" thread:  again, located over within the main "Long Range Discussion" sub-forum, broad sub-forums listing.)

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Very warm down here last couple days.. especially today! A couple of local stations hit the 70 mark. First since 10/26/2013.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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hey, "Timmy". 
 
.. Southern Oregon, your under, if only more "just", the main more light-weight type ridge that we are more south here, down in CA. … Of course Portland and some parts more northward had some significant rain yesterday, and then with that rain, with it and further north seeing the main dirtier cresting portion of that ridging more today. 
 
I'm planning to be heading north to Bend, to visit my parents (do some "skiing" with my father, a Mt. Bachelor.) the first week of April. .. Overnight in Klamath Falls: older, funky car. And so, watching things develop weatherwise from here to there, from here to then, hoping for some things more "fresh" nearer to that point.
 
.. What I'm seeing more at this point, or from now and where looking more ahead, is with main colder air sitting out over the Pacific looked at more broadly, currently moving both South and still more quickly east (if due to slow.), some chance of the general ridging over us being cut down some, and with this, its otherwise hopefully be caused to shift eastward not too, gradually. This making room for colder air to move closer to the greater Coast with its both continued press south together with if more slowed progress east, through the 23rd, when it begins to retract daily more northward again:  allowing the potential for its meeting with warmer and wetter air mass in its path east, up from the south, to bring us all another decent round of precip.. …

 
 Good chance of something close to this scenario's playing out evidently, with what's showing as of yesterday from the NWS's main "Climate Prediction Center", looking at the basic chances of / for "Normal", "Below" or "Above" precip expected for from the 22nd through the 28th of this month. 
 
http://www.proxigee.com/140314_814prcp-t.jpg
Click for larger image. 
 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

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"Wrong". ... "Not".

 

(Where, when. ?)

 

... I've been pointing to the idea of a stronger period of ENSO activity looked at more generally, being likely between 20..15-17, for 4 or 5 years at this point. And with this idea, had in fact posted that likelihood at "Western" when it had still been up and running. ... More than this, and toward my having worked to maintain this idea more here within this new setting, I've in fact brought it up within a post tacked to the main ENSO threadcurrently locatedover in the "Long Range Discussion" sub-forum.

 

(Perhaps you've see it: you started the thread. It [the thread] was "Moved" to that sub-forum, from this one, with whomever having moved it, not apparently having agreed with your thinking that all discussion here and with this new reorganization and setup should be more "homogenized".)

 

This general conjecture of mine brought upand clarified, .. More essentially, .. and with my intent with this post certainly not, being to open up an "ENSO" discussion with you, here in the middle of this thread, ... (cont., in the "2014 ENSO" thread: again, located over within the main "Long Range Discussion" sub-forum, broad sub-forums listing.)

Seriously? If western were still up I'm pretty sure I could dig up hundreds of posts claiming a Niño for 2012-13. I spent so many hours debating that with you it drove me insane.

 

Again, no disrespect intended, but I know I'm not crazy. :)

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