GHweatherChris Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 When the cold is staring him in the face and is at a short enough range so that it's undeniable he will put it on his maps. But when it gets into the realm of the long (month+) range he starts to get pretty liberal with the color red.He is a really good nowcaster, not so good even a few days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 When the cold is staring him in the face and is at a short enough range so that it's undeniable he will put it on his maps. But when it gets into the realm of the long (month+) range he starts to get pretty liberal with the color red. Like I said... the monthly maps for the summer show maybe 20-30% of the country in red. You just don't like the placement. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Not really. Brett Anderson's "interpretations" always run too warm..always. That and the fact that climate modeling has shown an inherent warm bias since 2009.. And I was not even considering actual anomalies as he interprets it... I was just looking for general ridge placement. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Had a brief bout of very wet snow on 405 and in Redmond for a few minutes before the change over to pellets. I guess that is a decent PNW way to send off winter. had a good 20 minutes of heavy wet snow up here at around 6:45 with pellets from 3pm-6:15pm. A mix of pellets, snow, and rain from 6:15-6:45. then had more brief periods of wet snow until the CZ dropped to our south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Got an inch of graupel last night. They actually plowed the roads. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 I hate summers that are too hot! Just sunny and regular temps is fine for meToo hot? LocationVancouver BC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Just had a light snow/graupel shower pass over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBigOne Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Why are people getting reports of snow/graupel or whatever when it's sunny and 50F? This morning though did dip to the low 30s which is a big change but it has warmed up more since. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBigOne Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Sounds like a great idea! Richard and Phil - please make use of the other forum boards for your ongoing discussions and attempts at understanding each other.So is this going to become the Western Weather Soap Opera Thread? Should I break out the popcorn? http://www.smileyvault.com/albums/forum/smileyvault-popcorn.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Why are people getting reports of snow/graupel or whatever when it's sunny and 50F? This morning though did dip to the low 30s which is a big change but it has warmed up more since.Low freezing level and low dew points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 So is this going to become the Western Weather Soap Opera ...———————————————————————http://www.smileyvault.com/albums/forum/smileyvault-popcorn.gif-——http://www.proxigee.com/coupons-logo_79x36_v2.png-—————http://www.proxigee.com/glove_gif-loop_8214.gif--——————————-http://www.proxigee.com/detergent-gel-pod-tt.jpg-——————————————http://www.proxigee.com/detergent-bucket-t.jpg Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted March 20, 2014 Report Share Posted March 20, 2014 Why are people getting reports of snow/graupel or whatever when it's sunny and 50F? This morning though did dip to the low 30s which is a big change but it has warmed up more since.I'm at 1500' too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Picture driving to work this morning... after our mega graupel storm last night: http://s13.postimg.org/fcqp83d7b/IMG_20140320_172232.jpg And then when I got home at 4 p.m. it still had not totally melted... likely due to the low dewpoints today. http://s2.postimg.org/8e3quc5h5/IMG_20140320_172051.jpg Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Picture driving to work this morning... after our mega graupel storm last night: http://s13.postimg.org/fcqp83d7b/IMG_20140320_172232.jpg And then when I got home at 4 p.m. it still had not totally melted... likely due to the low dewpoints today. http://s2.postimg.org/8e3quc5h5/IMG_20140320_172051.jpg Still graupel in the eaves of the roof here and in a few shady pockets of the yard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Woke up this morning to some frozen graupel and small snowflakes on my work van. The next two mornings should be frosty and crisp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 The last 3 runs of the WRF have shown a snowy Saturday morning for the south coast of BC. Tonight's run has extended the snow to include areas of Washington state near the Canadian Border. If the WRF is correct it could be a couple inches for Vancouver BC and maybe 2-4 inches for parts of Southern Vancouver Island. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow48.48.0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Spectacularly nice weather in Eugene today. Sunny and breezy with lowish dew point and temp around 50F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Picture driving to work this morning... after our mega graupel storm last night: http://s13.postimg.org/fcqp83d7b/IMG_20140320_172232.jpg And then when I got home at 4 p.m. it still had not totally melted... likely due to the low dewpoints today. http://s2.postimg.org/8e3quc5h5/IMG_20140320_172051.jpgLow dewpoints actually enhance sublimation. Graupel doesn't sublimate nearly as quickly though. So that probably explains it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Low dewpoints actually enhance sublimation. Graupel doesn't sublimate nearly as quickly though. So that probably explains it.Don't the low dewpoints affect (slowdown) the speed at which it melts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Low dewpoints actually enhance sublimation. Graupel doesn't sublimate nearly as quickly though. So that probably explains it.Melting is different from sublimation. And sublimation is less likely to be at play in our climate this late in the season. And low dps do slow melting because there is less moisture in the air, therefore less heat in the air to enhance melting. But you know that... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 The extended GFS has been looking consistently damp. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looks like the CFS is now going below normal temps above normal rainfall for April. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looks like the CFS is now going below normal temps above normal rainfall for April. Basically we are getting the weather we should have gotten in Winter. Predictable for these parts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Basically we are getting the weather we should have gotten in Winter. Predictable for these parts This winter was well below normal out here, with lots of snow. You Seattle folks keep forgetting there's an entire Pacific Northwest outside the Puget Sound region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Beautiful sunny and frosty morning here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 As for Tim's graupel above, what really matters is the wet bulb temperature. If that number is at or below 32 melting in the shade won't occur at all. In the sun it will occur, but much slower. Sublimation still happens, but it isn't as quick of a process as melting. Also as somebody else pointed out, a really low dew point would probably enhance sublimation, but I doubt dew points were THAT low such that it would become a major process. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 As for Tim's graupel above, what really matters is the wet bulb temperature. If that number is at or below 32 melting in the shade won't occur at all. In the sun it will occur, but much slower. Sublimation still happens, but it isn't as quick of a process as melting. Also as somebody else pointed out, a really low dew point would probably enhance sublimation, but I doubt dew points were THAT low such that it would become a major process. I agree with this... the dewpoint was around 32. Low enough to keep to prevent much melting in the shade but not low enough to cause sublimation. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 This winter was well below normal out here, with lots of snow. You Seattle folks keep forgetting there's an entire Pacific Northwest outside the Puget Sound region.What did your departures from normal for temperature and snowfall end up being for the winter season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 This winter was well below normal out here, with lots of snow. You Seattle folks keep forgetting there's an entire Pacific Northwest outside the Puget Sound region. You are right. Our winter sucked in the central sound. I'm jealous of other areas right now. However I still think the winter pretty much sucked, considering how late the ski season started. Plus it would be nice to get a region wide EPIC WINTER for once. Ya know sorta like the East Coast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Not much snow here this winter either. Winter temps were above normal in most of E. Oregon as well. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 My apologies to everyone for sticking up for what was actually a pretty solid winter. I forgot that it didn't snow much in the foothills outside of Salem, thus it was horrendous. I will never mention it again. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 I heard it was the coldest winter for the Wilamette Valley region since 1992-93, but I guess we can't talk about that. The slight warm departures in the southern part of Eastern Oregon were mainly due to a ridgy January. Let's not forget that Redmond fell close to -30f on December, and Klamath Falls had one of its coldest Decembers on record. Or maybe I can't bring that up without five posts jumping all over me either... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Two year ago today it snowed a lot in Eugene...20" at my house too...Or twice as much snow with one storm as I got this winter! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 I heard it was the coldest winter for the Wilamette Valley region since 1992-93, but I guess we can't talk about that. The slight warm departures in the southern part of Eastern Oregon were mainly due to a ridgy January. Let's not forget that Redmond fell close to -30f on December, and Klamath Falls had one of its coldest Decembers on record. Or maybe I can't bring that up without five posts jumping all over me either... Tim from K-Falls has mentioned that January and February were exceptionally mild in K-Falls...And yes it was a pretty solid winter for the Willamette Valley I will not argue that. And the two arctic airmasses were impressive. Just saying that overall for my backyard I would take a winter like 2010-11 or 2011-12 over this winter. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 This winter was a solid F for the entire PNW region. The only thing that kept it from being an F- was the fact that Andrew saw any snow at all. Also, next winter will be terrible with an impending mega-Niño. Is that better? Maybe I'm more in sync with the pessimistic mood of the rest of the forum now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 The morning of 3-22-12 on my way in to work... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Should I take off my studs yet? I live outside Scappoose at 1,500' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 Melting is different from sublimation. And sublimation is less likely to be at play in our climate this late in the season. And low dps do slow melting because there is less moisture in the air, therefore less heat in the air to enhance melting. But you know that... You must be referring to latent heat..H2O molecules are tri-atomic which actually inhibits maximum kinetic excitement at a given collisional-interception rate. They're not "warmer" then the N2/O2 molecules constantly colliding with the snowpack. If you're referring to the (colder?) airmass that accompanies the decreased dewpoints, then I agree somewhat. However, sublimation will account for a majority of the "melting" in full insolation. Under cloudy skies, you'd see more melting with increased H2O content. The opposite in sunny skies. Tim's picture appears to show sunny conditions. If Tim received 1" of graupel, it would make sense. You have a much greater density there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 As for Tim's graupel above, what really matters is the wet bulb temperature. If that number is at or below 32 melting in the shade won't occur at all. In the sun it will occur, but much slower. Sublimation still happens, but it isn't as quick of a process as melting. Also as somebody else pointed out, a really low dew point would probably enhance sublimation, but I doubt dew points were THAT low such that it would become a major process.I think people underestimate the rate at which sublimation occurs. Envision how quickly a medicine cap filled with 0.5" of water would evaporate in full sunshine. It'd take about 8hrs at 400Wm2. Out here, 95% of "snowmelt" is actually sublimation. During the January blast, my dewpoint fell to -29. The high was -4F, but I lost all of the 2" of powder I received during the frontal passage. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 21, 2014 Report Share Posted March 21, 2014 I agree with this... the dewpoint was around 32. Low enough to keep to prevent much melting in the shade but not low enough to cause sublimation [/].Solar radiation causes the majority of sublimation. That's why the snow persisted in the shade. Fresh snow has an albedo of 0.9+...very difficult for radiation to liquify it directly..which is accomplished more via direct conduction. You've got maybe 500Wm2 to work with over a few hrs..not enough. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.