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God. I can only imagine how much Tim is trying to be "realistic" over, and over, and over, and over again. He can't just accept the fact that people have hope, even if there is none. He MUST prove how there is no possible way we can get snow because his BFF (GFS MOS guidance) has adamently said so. And he must not only prove it once, he must prove it 23897 times in 73826 ways so that HE can be right.

 

I have him on ignore but just seeing all his posts (it shows him but not what it says) makes me annoyed already. Let us enjoy or believe whatever the **** we want to! Hopefully he can jump back on the mod preview train soon!

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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I walk away from the forum for a few hours and come back to this.   The local sub forums are there to make it easier to find region specific content, because if someone were to post extensively about

My apologies to everyone for sticking up for what was actually a pretty solid winter. I forgot that it didn't snow much in the foothills outside of Salem, thus it was horrendous. I will never mention

"Dear Diary".     ... dresses you the way she wants, cause she never had 'a .. dog.   — Always a pleasure fellas.

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What will happen tonight will not roll in from the coast it will develop over us. Watch the visible loop and you can see it happen already.

 

Not seeing it.

 

I am just being honest about the situation.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I mean for god sake, he posted 5 times just in the time it took me to post that! And I can guarantee every single one of those posts involve proving how it won't snow tonight.

 

Ok. I'm done. Had to get it out. He infuriates me even on ignore. At any rate, I'm hoping for a wonderful surprise because that's the thing about surprises, no model or forecasting tool shows them! Mother Nature can do what she wants and we can cheer her on as much as we want!

 

Clumpy rain/snow here in Redmond area. Cross the fingers everyone!:)

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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Probably will get 1-2" tonight up here before a quick melt tomorrow evening. I'll take it.

 

 

I agree with that forecast for Bellingham.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not seeing it.

 

I am just being honest about the situation.

Well considering that 925 temps were above 0 where the light snow did occur this morning, I would say that was surprising.

 

Mesoscale analysis showed 925's at +1 almost everywhere during that time.

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DJF departures:

 

EUG -2.8

PDX -2.5

SLE -1.5

 

Broke down like this

 

PDX:

Dec: -4.0
Jan:  0

Feb: -3.5

 

Snow: 8"

 

SLE:

Dec: -3.9

Jan: +0.1

Feb: -0.8

 

Snow: 10-12"

 

EUG:

Dec: -6.3

Jan: -1.0

Feb: -1.1

 

Snow: 15.7"

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Well considering that 925 temps were above 0 where the light snow did occur this morning, I would say that was surprising.

 

Mesoscale analysis showed 925's at +1 almost everywhere during that time.

 

 

Initial benefit of the dry air that moved in yesterday.    We have used that up now south of Bellingham.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Initial benefit of the dry air that moved in yesterday.    We have used that up now south of Bellingham.     

As Snowmizer said, different opinions.

 

I already know I will not see anything.

 

It is just funny seeing you shoot down everything anyone says that doesn't jive with what the models show.  

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As Snowmizer said, different opinions.

 

I already know I will not see anything.

 

It is just funny seeing you shoot down everything anyone says that doesn't jive with what the models show.  

 

 

Because its already happening.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Great winter recap for the Willamette Valley from Chris Callais. 

 

* Low of -10 at Eugene back in December, coldest since Dec 1972
* Low of 12 at Portland back in December, 19 in February
* High of 18 at Eugene in December, coldest since Dec 1990
* High of 23 at Portland on Feb 6th, coldest since 1996 in any month and coldest that late in the winter season since 1933! Latest so cold in PDX (airport) records.
* High of 25 at Eugene on Feb 6th, coldest ever so late in the winter season, records back to 1892.
* High of 27 at Salem on Feb 6th, coldest so late in the winter season since Feb 1936 and second-coldest ever so late.
* 8-16" of snow in most valley locations Portland to Eugene in early February
* 5-10" of snow around Albany/Corvallis and Eugene in early December making this winter one of the snowiest in recent memory in the central and south valley.
* Sub-freezing highs: 5 in December, 4 in February at Portland (PDX). Average is 3.4 days with highs below freezing in the 1940-2013 period at PDX.
* Sub-freezing lows: 14 in December, 12 in January, 10 in February so far. Considering December and January 26 nights below freezing. Average for December-January is 22.6 (1940-2013)
* Eugene saw 7" of snow in December and 8.7" in February for a season total of 15.7" so far. Snowiest since the 18.2" in 1992-93.
* Portland saw 0.7" of snow in December and 7.3" in February for a season total of 8.0", snowiest since 2008-09."
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Also would like to note that it warms my heart that Eugene actually recorded official snowfall data this winter.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Great winter recap for the Willamette Valley from Chris Callais. 

 

 

* Low of -10 at Eugene back in December, coldest since Dec 1972* Low of 12 at Portland back in December, 19 in February* High of 18 at Eugene in December, coldest since Dec 1990* High of 23 at Portland on Feb 6th, coldest since 1996 in any month and coldest that late in the winter season since 1933! Latest so cold in PDX (airport) records.* High of 25 at Eugene on Feb 6th, coldest ever so late in the winter season, records back to 1892.* High of 27 at Salem on Feb 6th, coldest so late in the winter season since Feb 1936 and second-coldest ever so late.* 8-16" of snow in most valley locations Portland to Eugene in early February* 5-10" of snow around Albany/Corvallis and Eugene in early December making this winter one of the snowiest in recent memory in the central and south valley.* Sub-freezing highs: 5 in December, 4 in February at Portland (PDX). Average is 3.4 days with highs below freezing in the 1940-2013 period at PDX.* Sub-freezing lows: 14 in December, 12 in January, 10 in February so far. Considering December and January 26 nights below freezing. Average for December-January is 22.6 (1940-2013)* Eugene saw 7" of snow in December and 8.7" in February for a season total of 15.7" so far. Snowiest since the 18.2" in 1992-93.* Portland saw 0.7" of snow in December and 7.3" in February for a season total of 8.0", snowiest since 2008-09."

Reading those snow totals remind me how pathetic the lowland climate is.

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Liar, that is impossible.  

 

Pics or it didn't happen. :P

 

Of course its possible.    A given actually with the dry air influx yesterday.

 

Still measures zero snowfall though!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some of us actually enjoy seeing snow falling even if it doesn't stick.

 

 

Me too!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Quite a bit of rain at my location today.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Great winter recap for the Willamette Valley from Chris Callais. 

 

* Low of -10 at Eugene back in December, coldest since Dec 1972

* Low of 12 at Portland back in December, 19 in February

* High of 18 at Eugene in December, coldest since Dec 1990

* High of 23 at Portland on Feb 6th, coldest since 1996 in any month and coldest that late in the winter season since 1933! Latest so cold in PDX (airport) records.

* High of 25 at Eugene on Feb 6th, coldest ever so late in the winter season, records back to 1892.

* High of 27 at Salem on Feb 6th, coldest so late in the winter season since Feb 1936 and second-coldest ever so late.

* 8-16" of snow in most valley locations Portland to Eugene in early February

* 5-10" of snow around Albany/Corvallis and Eugene in early December making this winter one of the snowiest in recent memory in the central and south valley.

* Sub-freezing highs: 5 in December, 4 in February at Portland (PDX). Average is 3.4 days with highs below freezing in the 1940-2013 period at PDX.

* Sub-freezing lows: 14 in December, 12 in January, 10 in February so far. Considering December and January 26 nights below freezing. Average for December-January is 22.6 (1940-2013)

* Eugene saw 7" of snow in December and 8.7" in February for a season total of 15.7" so far. Snowiest since the 18.2" in 1992-93.

* Portland saw 0.7" of snow in December and 7.3" in February for a season total of 8.0", snowiest since 2008-09."

 

We can tally up sub-freezing nights now for Dec-Feb. Looks like we had 37 freezing nights this winter compared to an average of 31.2 (1940-2013)

 

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Of course its possible. A given actually with the dry air influx yesterday.

 

Still measures zero snowfall though!

TROLLOLOLOL

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Co-worker just informed he drove in from down in the South Sound and it was snowing from Federal Way all the way up 405 til you reached about I-90. Not sticking of course, but fun nonetheless.

 

Although, the GFS MOS guidance says it wasn't supposed to be cold enough for snow! And we've used up all our dry air south of Bellingham! What are we to do? How is this possibly happening?

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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My god.  You're seriously gonna pull something soon.  Hopefully you're stretching properly and getting plenty of potassium and electrolytes.  

 

 

2 bananas a day.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Co-worker just informed he drove in from down in the South Sound and it was snowing from Federal Way all the way up 405 til you reached about I-90. Not sticking of course, but fun nonetheless.

 

Although, the GFS MOS guidance says it wasn't supposed to be cold enough for snow! And we've used up all our dry air south of Bellingham! What are we to do? How is this possibly happening?

 

 

Nobody said there would not be some snow in the air.   I believe I have said about 10 times that was a given with the dry air intrusion yesterday.

 

But there is not likely going to be accumulating snow in the Seattle area.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hmmmm... south winds gusting to 23 mph at Chehalis with 50 degrees.

 

Possible surprise?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Temp is really starting to drop now, was up to 41 just about 45min ago, down to 37 now!

 

Should be in the teens by midnight at that rate.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In Tim's defense. The problem we might have is there is a window of opportunity to use the power of the dry air. Imagine a dry sponge that can only handle so much water, thats the air mass. What we dont want is a slow saturation of the air mass if we want snow. It would be better if it was dry today for the better onset of precipitation later tonight or tomorrow. I am not seeing that much offshore wind over here. I am a realist when it comes to this and will admit when the obvious is happening.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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I have been watching that low for monday and tuesday. It is a little further south then yesterday. Just something to watch. Whenever there is cold air to the north to tap you just never know for sure what will and could happen.

gfs_namer_033_10m_wnd_precip.gif

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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In Tim's defense. The problem we might have is there is a window of opportunity to use the power of the dry air. Imagine a dry sponge that can only handle so much water, thats the air mass. What we dont want is a slow saturation of the air mass if we want snow. It would be better if it was dry today for the better onset of precipitation later tonight or tomorrow. I am not seeing that much offshore wind over here. I am a realist when it comes to this and will admit when the obvious is happening.

 

 

In my defense??   For stating the obvious and being realistic on a weather forum?     :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In my defense?? For stating the obvious and being realistic on a weather forum? :lol:

Honestly I am sticking up for you. All you have done is go by what the mm5 and mos guidance is showing. And you are taking heat for it. Lol.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Honestly I am sticking up for you. All you have done is go by what the mm5 and mos guidance is showing. And you are taking heat to it. Lol.j

 

Plus you can clearly see a low moving up the coast right now on the satellite.   

 

Southerly flow usually follows a low moving up the coast.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Plus you can clearly see a low moving up the coast right now on the satellite.   

 

Southerly flow usually follows a low moving up the coast.

On this forum a arctic blizzard. In reality some sw wind.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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The Winter Storm Watch in Shelton is now upgraded to a warning.  So, the NWS sees something that could make this a decent event in areas well south of Bellingham.

This is going to be interesting. The cold air is making its way south. There is a south wind south of Olympia. There could be some good lift and dynamics somewhere in between.
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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