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March in the Pacific Northwest


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When the cold is staring him in the face and is at a short enough range so that it's undeniable he will put it on his maps.

 

But when it gets into the realm of the long (month+) range he starts to get pretty liberal with the color red.

He is a really good nowcaster, not so good even a few days out.

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When the cold is staring him in the face and is at a short enough range so that it's undeniable he will put it on his maps.

 

But when it gets into the realm of the long (month+) range he starts to get pretty liberal with the color red.

 

Like I said... the monthly maps for the summer show maybe 20-30% of the country in red.

 

You just don't like the placement.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not really. Brett Anderson's "interpretations" always run too warm..always.

 

That and the fact that climate modeling has shown an inherent warm bias since 2009..

 

And I was not even considering actual anomalies as he interprets it... I was just looking for general ridge placement.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Had a brief bout of very wet snow on 405 and in Redmond for a few minutes before the change over to pellets. I guess that is a decent PNW way to send off winter.

 

had a good 20 minutes of heavy wet snow up here at around 6:45 with pellets from 3pm-6:15pm. A mix of pellets, snow, and rain from 6:15-6:45. then had more brief periods of wet snow until the CZ dropped to our south. 

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Sounds like a great idea!

 

Richard and Phil - please make use of the other forum boards for your ongoing discussions and attempts at understanding each other.

So is this going to become the Western Weather Soap Opera Thread?  Should I break out the popcorn? http://www.smileyvault.com/albums/forum/smileyvault-popcorn.gif

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Guest Monty67

Why are people getting reports of snow/graupel or whatever when it's sunny and 50F? This morning though did dip to the low 30s which is a big change but it has warmed up more since.

Low freezing level and low dew points.
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So is this going to become the Western Weather Soap Opera  ...———————————————————————http://www.smileyvault.com/albums/forum/smileyvault-popcorn.gif

-——http://www.proxigee.com/coupons-logo_79x36_v2.png

-—————http://www.proxigee.com/glove_gif-loop_8214.gif

--——————————-http://www.proxigee.com/detergent-gel-pod-tt.jpg

-——————————————http://www.proxigee.com/detergent-bucket-t.jpg

---
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Picture driving to work this morning... after our mega graupel storm last night:

 

http://s13.postimg.org/fcqp83d7b/IMG_20140320_172232.jpg

 

 

And then when I got home at 4 p.m. it still had not totally melted... likely due to the low dewpoints today.

 

http://s2.postimg.org/8e3quc5h5/IMG_20140320_172051.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Picture driving to work this morning... after our mega graupel storm last night:

 

http://s13.postimg.org/fcqp83d7b/IMG_20140320_172232.jpg

 

 

And then when I got home at 4 p.m. it still had not totally melted... likely due to the low dewpoints today.

 

http://s2.postimg.org/8e3quc5h5/IMG_20140320_172051.jpg

 

Still graupel in the eaves of the roof here and in a few shady pockets of the yard.

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Guest Monty67

The last 3 runs of the WRF have shown a snowy Saturday morning for the south coast of BC. Tonight's run has extended the snow to include areas of Washington state near the Canadian Border. If the WRF is correct it could be a couple inches for Vancouver BC and maybe 2-4 inches for parts of Southern Vancouver Island.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow48.48.0000.gif

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Picture driving to work this morning... after our mega graupel storm last night:

 

http://s13.postimg.org/fcqp83d7b/IMG_20140320_172232.jpg

 

 

And then when I got home at 4 p.m. it still had not totally melted... likely due to the low dewpoints today.

 

http://s2.postimg.org/8e3quc5h5/IMG_20140320_172051.jpg

Low dewpoints actually enhance sublimation.

 

Graupel doesn't sublimate nearly as quickly though. So that probably explains it.

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Guest Monty67

Low dewpoints actually enhance sublimation.

 

Graupel doesn't sublimate nearly as quickly though. So that probably explains it.

Don't the low dewpoints affect (slowdown) the speed at which it melts?
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Low dewpoints actually enhance sublimation.

 

Graupel doesn't sublimate nearly as quickly though. So that probably explains it.

Melting is different from sublimation. And sublimation is less likely to be at play in our climate this late in the season. And low dps do slow melting because there is less moisture in the air, therefore less heat in the air to enhance melting. But you know that...

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The extended GFS has been looking consistently damp.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like the CFS is now going below normal temps above normal rainfall for April.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Basically we are getting the weather we should have gotten in Winter. Predictable for these parts

 

This winter was well below normal out here, with lots of snow. :)

 

You Seattle folks keep forgetting there's an entire Pacific Northwest outside the Puget Sound region.

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As for Tim's graupel above, what really matters is the wet bulb temperature. If that number is at or below 32 melting in the shade won't occur at all. In the sun it will occur, but much slower. Sublimation still happens, but it isn't as quick of a process as melting. Also as somebody else pointed out, a really low dew point would probably enhance sublimation, but I doubt dew points were THAT low such that it would become a major process.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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As for Tim's graupel above, what really matters is the wet bulb temperature. If that number is at or below 32 melting in the shade won't occur at all. In the sun it will occur, but much slower. Sublimation still happens, but it isn't as quick of a process as melting. Also as somebody else pointed out, a really low dew point would probably enhance sublimation, but I doubt dew points were THAT low such that it would become a major process.

 

 

I agree with this... the dewpoint was around 32.   

 

Low enough to keep to prevent much melting in the shade but not low enough to cause sublimation.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Guest Monty67

This winter was well below normal out here, with lots of snow. :)

 

You Seattle folks keep forgetting there's an entire Pacific Northwest outside the Puget Sound region.

What did your departures from normal for temperature and snowfall end up being for the winter season?
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This winter was well below normal out here, with lots of snow. :)

 

You Seattle folks keep forgetting there's an entire Pacific Northwest outside the Puget Sound region.

 

You are right. Our winter sucked in the central sound. I'm jealous of other areas right now.

 

However I still think the winter pretty much sucked, considering how late the ski season started. Plus it would be nice to get a region wide EPIC WINTER for once.

 

Ya know sorta like the East Coast ;)

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Not much snow here this winter either. Winter temps were above normal in most of E. Oregon as well.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I heard it was the coldest winter for the Wilamette Valley region since 1992-93, but I guess we can't talk about that.

 

The slight warm departures in the southern part of Eastern Oregon were mainly due to a ridgy January. Let's not forget that Redmond fell close to -30f on December, and Klamath Falls had one of its coldest Decembers on record. Or maybe I can't bring that up without five posts jumping all over me either...

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Two year ago today it snowed a lot in Eugene...20" at my house too...Or twice as much snow with one storm as I got this winter!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I heard it was the coldest winter for the Wilamette Valley region since 1992-93, but I guess we can't talk about that.

 

The slight warm departures in the southern part of Eastern Oregon were mainly due to a ridgy January. Let's not forget that Redmond fell close to -30f on December, and Klamath Falls had one of its coldest Decembers on record. Or maybe I can't bring that up without five posts jumping all over me either...

 

Tim from K-Falls has mentioned that January and February were exceptionally mild in K-Falls...And yes it was a pretty solid winter for the Willamette Valley I will not argue that. And the two arctic airmasses were impressive. Just saying that overall for my backyard I would take a winter like 2010-11 or 2011-12 over this winter.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This winter was a solid F for the entire PNW region. The only thing that kept it from being an F- was the fact that Andrew saw any snow at all.

 

Also, next winter will be terrible with an impending mega-Niño.

 

Is that better? Maybe I'm more in sync with the pessimistic mood of the rest of the forum now. :)

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The morning of 3-22-12 on my way in to work...

 

1926777_549697011984_1109689809_n.jpg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Melting is different from sublimation. And sublimation is less likely to be at play in our climate this late in the season. And low dps do slow melting because there is less moisture in the air, therefore less heat in the air to enhance melting. But you know that...

 

You must be referring to latent heat..H2O molecules are tri-atomic which actually inhibits maximum kinetic excitement at a given collisional-interception rate. They're not "warmer" then the N2/O2 molecules constantly colliding with the snowpack.

 

If you're referring to the (colder?) airmass that accompanies the decreased dewpoints, then I agree somewhat. However, sublimation will account for a majority of the "melting" in full insolation.

 

Under cloudy skies, you'd see more melting with increased H2O content. The opposite in sunny skies. Tim's picture appears to show sunny conditions. If Tim received 1" of graupel, it would make sense. You have a much greater density there.

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As for Tim's graupel above, what really matters is the wet bulb temperature. If that number is at or below 32 melting in the shade won't occur at all. In the sun it will occur, but much slower. Sublimation still happens, but it isn't as quick of a process as melting. Also as somebody else pointed out, a really low dew point would probably enhance sublimation, but I doubt dew points were THAT low such that it would become a major process.

I think people underestimate the rate at which sublimation occurs. Envision how quickly a medicine cap filled with 0.5" of water would evaporate in full sunshine. It'd take about 8hrs at 400Wm2.

 

Out here, 95% of "snowmelt" is actually sublimation. During the January blast, my dewpoint fell to -29. The high was -4F, but I lost all of the 2" of powder I received during the frontal passage.

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I agree with this... the dewpoint was around 32.

 

Low enough to keep to prevent much melting in the shade but not low enough to cause sublimation [/].

Solar radiation causes the majority of sublimation. That's why the snow persisted in the shade. Fresh snow has an albedo of 0.9+...very difficult for radiation to liquify it directly..which is accomplished more via direct conduction. You've got maybe 500Wm2 to work with over a few hrs..not enough.

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