Jesse Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 And here is an image of the origin of the slide off twitter. Looks like yet another landslide caused by our state's wonderful logging practices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 heard of it being 67ish monday does anyone believe it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 We heard the rumble of the slide this morning in our house even though we are quite a distance from Oso. My wife came into the kitchen were i was wondering what I was doing. It had that rumble sound just like the beginning of a earthquake so I thought for sure the shaking was about to happen. Hopefully everyone is heeding the warning to stay clear of the river. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Care to elaborate? Sure. Clearcut logging has been responsible for many large landslides in the past. When you strip an entire hillside of vegetation it becomes much more vulnerable to that kind of thing. I can tell based on that picture that the area that slid down was part of a clearcut. Hope I'm not in trouble. I'm not trying to offend anyone here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's been wet, not "extremely" wet by PNW standards (see November 2006).It was triggered by all the rain recently. Check out the Seattle Times. Same area had a major slide in 2006. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 And we all know landslides have NEVER happened before man came around.. Nope, never. Impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 And we all know landslides have NEVER happened before man came around.. Nope, never. Impossible.You're missing my point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sure. Clearcut logging has been responsible for many large landslides in the past. When you strip an entire hillside of vegetation it becomes much more vulnerable to that kind of thing. I can tell based on that picture that the area that slid down was part of a clearcut. Hope I'm not in trouble. I'm not trying to offend anyone here.Definitely. Logging took place here in the earlier years and led to a crapload of landslides along backbone ridge, which is where I live now. You can still see the evidence left behind. It's ashame, some of those trees were 200-300yrs old. Now the remaining big trees are really exposed to the wind. The Derecho/Sandy combo in 2012 took out 50-75% of them. Only 7 remain in the vicinity of my house, only 3 left on my property. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 It was triggered by all the rain recently. Check out the Seattle Times. Same area had a major slide in 2006. No s**t. Obviously it was triggered by rain. My point was that it was not immediately preceded by a major rain event. Don't call the moderate rain totals we've seen this month major. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 No s**t. Obviously it was triggered by rain. My point was that it was not immediately preceded by a major rain event. Don't call the moderate rain totals we've seen this month major. Whatever. Major enough to cause a huge problem. And its been an extremely wet March which followed a very wet February. That is just a fact. I have had 17 inches of rain here this month and almost 30 inches in the last 6 weeks. And that area has probably been even wetter since its in the favored c-zone location. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Reading some other stuff about the slide on facebook... people who live close to that area are saying there was no logging there. But I think it was in a previous slide area: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Reading some other stuff about the slide on facebook... people who live close to that area are saying there was no logging there. But I think it was in a previous slide area: You can tell from that pic that it is in a previous slide area. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Whatever. Major enough to cause a huge problem. And its been an extremely wet March which followed a very wet February. That is just a fact. I have had 17 inches of rain here this month and almost 30 inches in the last 6 weeks. And that area has probably been even wetter since its in the favored c-zone location. Looks like 11" of rain this month at Cicero, near where the slide occurred. That is not exceptionally heavy rain for an area that probably averages 80" of precip a year. October, November, and December 2012 all had 11-12" of rain there. So did March 2012. February 2012 had 12" of rain there and February 21, 2012 alone had over 4". No catastrophic slides those months. Point is, you usually see these types of massive landslides after a major pineapple express and regional flood event. This month has not had that. It's been wet, but the amount of rain this month doesn't scream "catastrophic mass movement", from a climo perspective. These things sometimes just go when they go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Whatever. Major enough to cause a huge problem. And its been an extremely wet March which followed a very wet February. That is just a fact. I have had 17 inches of rain here this month and almost 30 inches in the last 6 weeks. And that area has probably been even wetter since its in the favored c-zone location.Over 9" of rain ehre so far this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Another frosty morning. 4th in a row. Its nice after the ridiculously mild start to the month we had. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Enjoy the next couple of days. Starting Tuesday it looks like it is going to rain for about two weeks. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 On my way to Vancouver this morning. The sky looks nothing short of amazing with the sun still low enough to cast a golden hue on the smattering of clouds and patchy fog lifting from the trees.Ya, it was beautiful driving over 520 this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyC Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 BEAUTIFUL day out there!! Sure feels like Spring!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 BEAUTIFUL day out there!! Sure feels like Spring!! That is good... because it is spring. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 tommrow is 65ish going to feel like summer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 tommrow is 65ish going to feel like summerSummer in Juneau perhaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyC Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 That is good... because it is spring. Hey, it could be 38f and raining today... I'll take my 54f, partly sunny skies, and run with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Hey, it could be 38f and raining today... I'll take my 54f, partly sunny skies, and run with it. Yep, just give it another week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yep, just give it another week. I don't see much 38-degree rain. Plenty of rain... but with the trough mostly offshore it should be the 55-degree variety. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Summer in Juneau perhaps. .. Or maybe Daily City. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't see much 38-degree rain. Plenty of rain... but with the trough mostly offshore it should be the 55-degree variety.so more like the muggy rain or how and if do we get it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 so more like the muggy rain or how and if do we get it? Starting Tuesday... going forever. Probably not humid... just mild and wet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 Starting Tuesday... going forever. Probably not humid... just mild and wet.850s look to be below 0c with thicknesses below 540 a good part of next week. It will be cool and wet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 23, 2014 Report Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't see much 38-degree rain. Plenty of rain... but with the trough mostly offshore it should be the 55-degree variety. Thursday looks nasty up this way. Then early April has consistently been looking troughy, with wall to wall storm systems. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 The landslide story keeps getting worse. A whole square mile got taken out and 18+ people are still unaccounted for. Could be the deadliest natural disaster in WA since Mt. St. Helens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 We certainly need 2 more weeks of rain! Wettest March ever very likely. The endless rain coming is going to make clean up even worse. But we really need more rain right? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 We certainly need 2 more weeks of rain! Wettest March ever very likely. The endless rain coming is going to make clean up even worse. But we really need more rain right?I don't think anyone is saying we need more rain (although some mountain snow wouldn't be a bad thing). People are just reporting what the models are showing. You know, like you do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 I don't think anyone is saying we need more rain (although some mountain snow wouldn't be a bad thing). People are just reporting what the models are showing. You know, like you do. I know they are just reporting it now... some people on here claimed earlier that we need much more precipitation. Not up here we don't. Be nice to send it all into OR and CA where it would help... up here it will just cause more problems. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 -http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/163-march-in-the-pacific-northwest/?p=22971http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/163-march-in-the-pacific-northwest/?p=22985 [With specific emphasis.] .. Not to put a damper on your guys' enthusiasm where looking at, even appreciation of, the nicer conditions prevailing right now and over the past few days, in fact up and down the greater Coast. And if more in line with "BLi snowman's" either whether warning (?), or more general chagrin expressed along with others' above where looking more forward, … @ @ With my, here where I am more south looking at things perhaps a tad differently—(with per my own view at least, my locations' more specific being on the, if granted more extreme, borderline south of the PNW), … .. And so with this, for in fact at least a tad more rain and snow with the still more drought-like conditions still in place from here where I am south, …. As enjoyable as things are, I have to root more for the nicer conditions at this point, to turn to wetter over the next week. — This (all.) said, with more substantively where looking more ahead from this point and into next week, and if again, mainly at from here where I am south, that what I'm expecting to occur (Or perhaps, in the light of the drought, hoping for.) / most liking a bit more quickly than the models might show—is that with main colder air's - having moved and spread steadily more southward over the past two weeks or so, beginning to regress back more northward daily from here forward more, and with this idea, warmer and wetter air's being able to migrate, more north—and potentially into the path of cold - if receding, at the same time moving more assertively east, … some amount of rain, even snow, more, where looking more fully south, sooner; .. this with then, some amount more of each, more northward, more subsequently. .. This with where otherwise looking more north of where I am, things unfolding where looking at what I've suggested here above more specifically regarding main colder air's both movement together with distribution, more precip. still even, relative, to these main possibilities as I see them where looking more at CA's both north and south. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 Starting Tuesday... going forever. Probably not humid... just mild and wet. how can you tell if its going to be muggy or not on the models say the gfs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 how can you tell if its going to be muggy or not on the models say the gfs? It won't be muggy. 850mb temps are way too low. It will be a bunch of 50-55 degree rain. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 We certainly need 2 more weeks of rain! Wettest March ever very likely. The endless rain coming is going to make clean up even worse. But we really need more rain right? Write a letter. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 00Z GFS is more troughy next weekend which would be a good thing. Better to be deep inside a trough rather than on the eastern edge with a big ridge to the east and moisture training over us for days. The last 3 days have been awesome... even with chilly air aloft. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 The GFS shows 3.03" of more rain for up here in Abbotsford between now and Monday the 31st. That would bring the total precipitation for March to 12.73". Normal for March is only 6.3" of precipitation here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted March 24, 2014 Report Share Posted March 24, 2014 finally getting studs off tommmrow at les shuab. hello popcorn for free Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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