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I walk away from the forum for a few hours and come back to this.   The local sub forums are there to make it easier to find region specific content, because if someone were to post extensively about

My apologies to everyone for sticking up for what was actually a pretty solid winter. I forgot that it didn't snow much in the foothills outside of Salem, thus it was horrendous. I will never mention

"Dear Diary".     ... dresses you the way she wants, cause she never had 'a .. dog.   — Always a pleasure fellas.

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Temp now at 36, I would say that is pretty good cooling for just over a one hr span. 41 to 36! Still spitting snow here and there with very breezy NE winds! I don't care what the models say, snow will be sticking tonight, this has a way different feel outside than it did last weekend at my location.

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Temp now at 36, I would say that is pretty good cooling for just over a one hr span. 41 to 36! Still spitting snow here and there with very breezy NE winds! I don't care what the models say, snow will be sticking tonight, this has a way different feel outside than it did last weekend at my location.

You guys are gonna give Tim and aneurysm.    :D

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Every time I get snow so do you. Now that I know who you are! You have a shot.

Very unlikely that offshore flow gets strong enough through the Chehalis Gap before southerlies get here.

 

And, there won't be any precip til late tonight at the earliest.

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I love this stuff. This is a full on experience forecast from the Nws. The gfs mm5 shows no snow. The nam had some. This is the most snow I have seen forecasted with now gfs mm5 support. My call is because of the lift and the north wind still filtering in and the increase in precipitation later I will get around 4 inches.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Very unlikely that offshore flow gets strong enought through the Chehalis Gap before southerlies get here.

 

The city of Chehalis has S20G25 and 50 degrees.

 

There is no offshore flow down there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I love this stuff. This is a full on experience forecast from the Nws. The gfs mm5 shows no snow. The nam had some. This is the most snow I have seen forecasted with now gfs mm5 support. My call is because of the lift and the north wind still filtering in and the increase in precipitation later I will get around 4 inches.

 

 

Whole different world over there.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Been getting on and off snow pellets here for a few hours but it hasn't been enough to stick except for a light trace on the coldest raised surfaces.

 

Interesting to see the NWS increase snow totals to 4-7" up here. Still feels more like 1-3" to me but if we can hang onto the outflow a little longer than modeled it could make a big difference.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
254 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014

WAZ001-503-021200-
/O.EXT.KSEW.WS.A.0008.140302T1400Z-140303T1400Z/
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-
254 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AND
THE SAN JUANS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT OR UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...BELLINGHAM...SUMAS...FERNDALE...
BLAINE...AND EASTSOUND.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO JUST RAIN
EARLY MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT OR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Been getting on and off snow pellets here for a few hours but it hasn't been enough to stick except for a light trace on the coldest raised surfaces.

 

Interesting to see the NWS increase snow totals to 4-7" up here. Still feels more like 1-3" to me but if we can hang onto the outflow a little longer than modeled it could make a big difference.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA

254 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014

 

WAZ001-503-021200-

/O.EXT.KSEW.WS.A.0008.140302T1400Z-140303T1400Z/

SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-

254 PM PST SAT MAR 1 2014

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY AND

THE SAN JUANS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

 

* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.

 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS

IS POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT

ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT OR UP TO ABOUT AN INCH.

 

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...BELLINGHAM...SUMAS...FERNDALE...

BLAINE...AND EASTSOUND.

 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY

SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A

CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD

OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO JUST RAIN

EARLY MONDAY.

 

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT OR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED

ON SUNDAY.

 

4 to 7" is way too high.

 

18z GFS makes it look like even 2" might be really optimistic.

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Pretty heavy stationary band of rain over my location. Up to 0.75" of rain on the day now.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 to 7" is way too high.

 

18z GFS makes it look like even 2" might be really optimistic.

Agreed.

 

I think they are still overcompensating for underforecasting the snow last weekend.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Whole different world over there.

 

Its not even that cold here and the observations I use in the Olympics are above freezing. I dont feel it but that dont matter. Pretty strong forecast they have for me.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Its not even that cold here and the observations I use in the Olympics are above freezing. I dont feel it but that dont matter. Pretty strong forecast they have for me.

It's funny that my area has a way different feel to it than last weekend. Where's Jim?

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Agreed.

 

I think they are still overcompensating for underforecasting the snow last weekend.

 

Definitely. They underestimated the Sunday event, overestimated our chances for anything on Monday, and are still erring on the high side with this.

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I am struggling to figure out why the NWS has a 70% chance of rain here this afternoon when there has not been any radar returns anywhere near me all day long.

 

Edit: Right after I typed that I looked at the radar and there is some small echoes moving towards me. LOL

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It's funny that my area has a way different feel to it than last weekend. Where's Jim?

 

 

Why would he be on here?    Another Bellingham and Hood Canal event is going to foul his mood even more. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I am struggling to figure out why the NWS has a 70% chance of rain here this afternoon when there has not been any radar returns anywhere near me all day long.

watch the water vapor loop. There is action popping up.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Another hood canal event? This will be the first one.

 

Well... from other years then.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA radar is very active.

 

Just scattered light flurries here all day.

 

The band from Everett southwest towards Bainbridge Island does look interesting.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Getting a decent band of steady light snow here now and the porch, railings and cars now have a light dusting.

 

Down to 30 degrees with a DP of 23.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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I think the NWS is going to bust on the call for widespread snowfall for the entire central Puget Sound area.  It's quite a bit colder here than most places and I'm not expecting anything to stick even here.  I would love to be wrong, but the cold is very shallow.  During the brief snow showers I had earlier there were periods where it turned to sleet.  The only place I would consider to have a good chance for accumulating snow is the interior from about Everett northward.  This is a strange enough situation that it could surprise me I suppose.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I think the NWS is going to bust on the call for widespread snowfall for the entire central Puget Sound area.  It's quite a bit colder here than most places and I'm not expecting anything to stick even here.  I would love to be wrong, but the cold is very shallow.  During the brief snow showers I had earlier there were periods where it turned to sleet.  The only place I would consider to have a good chance for accumulating snow is the interior from about Everett northward.  This is a strange enough situation that it could surprise me I suppose.

So with the east flow you dont think the canal will see snow? I am not sure myself.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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I think the NWS is going to bust on the call for widespread snowfall for the entire central Puget Sound area.  It's quite a bit colder here than most places and I'm not expecting anything to stick even here.  I would love to be wrong, but the cold is very shallow.  During the brief snow showers I had earlier there were periods where it turned to sleet.  The only place I would consider to have a good chance for accumulating snow is the interior from about Everett northward.  This is a strange enough situation that it could surprise me I suppose.

 

 

 

Hey snow wizard! 33 with a dp of 31 here! Everett was the same an hr ago.

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Hey snow wizard! 33 with a dp of 31 here! Everett was the same an hr ago.

 

 

I just noticed how cold it has gotten up that way.  Pretty surprising.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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So with the east flow you dont think the canal will see snow? I am not sure myself.

 

 

I have yet to see any sign of cold air on the west side of Puget Sound.  Good precip intensity and a little bit tighter pressure gradients could do it.  It is VERY rare to have much of a shot at snow at all considering what the 850s are right now.  The very cold low level air seeping in from central Washington is pretty impressive considering the fairly warm mid levels (and even lower mid levels).

 

I would call the chances of lowland snow south of the King / Pierce County line east of Puget Sound to be nearly zero.  The outflow zone that I'm in will be the southern boundary of any real chance at all.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Why would he be on here?    Another Bellingham and Hood Canal event is going to foul his mood even more. 

 

 

I've pretty much accepted my fate this winter.  No question I'm ready to leave here now.  Really no sense of getting worked up about what little winter is left.  I will say I'll be glad when it's all just a bad memory though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Now gone over an inch of rain here on the day...Pretty impressive considering how weak the radar has looked.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Incredible numbers east of the Cascades. 21 with A DP of 10 in Wenatchee, mid teens in Spokane, low 20s across the Basin from I-90 northward.  Certainly does suggest the potential for some pretty cold outflow winds tonight.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Incredible numbers east of the Cascades. 21 with A DP of 10 in Wenatchee, mid teens in Spokane, low 20s across the Basin from I-90 northward.  Certainly does suggest the potential for some pretty cold outflow winds tonight.

Yeah I just checked the observations near my property over by republic. The two nearest ones were 6 and 12. That is rediculous for march in the daylight.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Yeah I just checked the observations near my property over by republic. The two nearest ones were 6 and 12. That is rediculous for march in the daylight.

 

 

Quite an over performance for such lame 850mb temps.  Goes to show how tremendously cold that air mass is that is dropping into Montana.

 

As much as I don't want to be...I am a tad optimistic for my chances here tonight.  Right now it's 37 with a dp around 27 and modest east winds.  That combined with the fact Central WA has gotten gradually colder during the day certainly suggests a chance the precip could fall as snow tonight.  The snowfall prediction models could have been too hung up on the high 850s with this event.  Going to be a close call for many of us though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Down to 30 here with light snow and a dusting on everything.

Radar looks primed for us to pick up a half inch or so in the next couple hours.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Quite an over performance for such lame 850mb temps.  Goes to show how tremendously cold that air mass is that is dropping into Montana.

 

As much as I don't want to be...I am a tad optimistic for my chances here tonight.  Right now it's 37 with a dp around 27 and modest east winds.  That combined with the fact Central WA has gotten gradually colder during the day certainly suggests a chance the precip could fall as snow tonight.  The snowfall prediction models could have been too hung up on the high 850s with this event.  Going to be a close call for many of us though.

 

I'm actually quite surprised at how "chilly" it is outside. It is a long shot, but it be nice see some snow this evening.  

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I am 100% impressed with the scope of the cold air that has overspread all of central and eastern WA and has begun to seep through the passes.  Lester is currently at 24 with a dp of 14.  That town is at 1600 feet and is probably about 25 to 30 miles east of here.  The outflow wind that blows through here comes from that area.  I have also noticed that pretty much everywhere from Puget Sound eastward is at their current lows for the day now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Quite an over performance for such lame 850mb temps.  Goes to show how tremendously cold that air mass is that is dropping into Montana.

 

As much as I don't want to be...I am a tad optimistic for my chances here tonight.  Right now it's 37 with a dp around 27 and modest east winds.  That combined with the fact Central WA has gotten gradually colder during the day certainly suggests a chance the precip could fall as snow tonight.  The snowfall prediction models could have been too hung up on the high 850s with this event.  Going to be a close call for many of us though.

 

 

You are not going to have much if any real precip until tomorrow.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You are not going to have much if any real precip until tomorrow.

 

 

That is possible.  The NWS seems to be confident in heavier precip than what is modeled.  No question there have been surprises today.  I'm not terribly hopeful but there is a chance.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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That is possible.  The NWS seems to be confident in heavier precip than what is modeled.  No question there have been surprises today.  I'm not terribly hopeful but there is a chance.

 

I am not sure what any of these surprises are... the models showed the coldest air today with light precip being shown for the last 5 days on each run of the GFS and ECMWF for today.

 

What did people think was going to happen?   Some light snow or sleet mixed in was a given.  

 

Obviously Bellingham has always been in the best spot.    There has been nothing really accumulating south of there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Has southwest or south east winds taken over 38 here now,. Light rain

 

Olympia switched to a SW wind and jumped to 48 degrees now.   

 

Don't think its reached up there yet.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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