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March in the Pacific Northwest


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It's about as miserable as it gets out there today.  Currently raining and 35 here.  To me rain in the low to mid 30s feels a lot colder than snow.  The low temp dropped to 32 here so it was just on edge of freezing rain for a while.

 

The models appear to be showing some kind of Western ridge popping up toward the end of week one.  That would keep the NE quarter of the country colder than normal for a while longer.  It's like they stay cold no matter what combination of indices we get.  Pretty bizarre.  Given the extremely cold nature of some of the Western troughs this winter I would not surprised to see some kind of freaky late season cold snap here maybe toward late March or early April.  The LRC may be in effect when you consider we had a major blast in early Dec, a near miss in early Jan, a major blast in early Feb, and an epic blast this weekend that went JUST to the east of us.  With shorter wavelengths most likely to set in by early April that could be a period to watch for a late season cold snap here.  Too late for anything epic, but it can get pretty cold and snow a bit that time of year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Hey Tim did you get any snow/ZR? Reports of about an inch of snow there with .25" of ZR

 

 

Yeah... its a icy mess here.   Still more ice pellets than rain which helps.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like Sumas got hit quite a bit harder than most places in Whatcom County.  The web cams show nothing but compact snow and ice on the roads while Lynden and Bellingham have wet roads and less snow.  What an amazing week to 10 days for Whatcom County.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just more torture to see a low go just to the north of us with cold air to tap. This has been a very frustrating winter or whatever you call it. Its almost a insult to winter to call it winter here.

 

This winter sure had its share of cold and chances for big snowfalls.  Perhaps the most frustrating winter of the 21st century for the Seattle area.  Not the biggest loser by any means but very frustrating.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Watch we will get a nino and it will be the snowiest winter in 300 years.

 

There is always the chance of a good December with a major Nino.  1968-69 pulled off a great Dec and Jan with a moderate.  Given the fact the NE quarter of the country just had an epically cold winter with a nearly constant negative PNA goes to show anything is possible.  I'm more expecting a pitiful winter if the Nino develops though.  There is still a small chance of avoiding a Nino if the MJO is in the right place when the subsurface Kelvin wave of warm subsurface water emerges.  That is pretty much what saved us from Ninos the last couple of winters.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Live view of my yard... streets are still a sheet of ice.    Waiting for that warm SW wind to start up.   Models show it will hit in full force later this afternoon.

 

http://s18.postimg.org/5vzdb66ax/IMG_20140302_121949.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well 40F here and raining, but it looks like for most of the day I will be near the rainshadow. I am feeling that as we are into March and there is no snow on the horizon, the next thing to look forward to is hopefully some thunderstorms. The last few springs have been lacking any good thunderstorms, so maybe we will be able to pull off some this year. Hopefully the snow levels also stay relatively low for the next month so we can get a few more good skiing days in.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Sort of vampire-ish to cheer for dark, stratiform rain until July.    Not even 'sort of'... truly vampire-like.      

 

There are people on here who like active weather with showers and sunbreaks and thunder in the spring (even me to an extent)... but even they don't want stratiform, cold rain until July.    :lol:

 

Not sure why you would call it vampire-like--but you can place a label on it if you like.  As a side note, I didn't say I wanted stratiform cold rain until July.  I said I stuck a fork in winter and that it can rain until July (which is the normal course of doing business out here).  On July 4th, it will warm up to 80 and the sun will stay out pretty much until Labor Day or so.

 

But you can certainly alter people's comments if it makes you feel better.  You do that well while you try to undermine other people's desire for a snowy winter.

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Live view of my yard... streets are still a sheet of ice.    Waiting for that warm SW wind to start up.   Models show it will hit in full force later this afternoon.

 

http://s18.postimg.org/5vzdb66ax/IMG_20140302_121949.jpg

That looks RAD. Snow hasn’t started here yet. 

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That looks RAD. Snow hasn’t started here yet. 

 

 

Surprised we still have power here.

 

I was wishing we were still in Hawaii until I checked the weather there... glad we missed that.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Live view of my yard... streets are still a sheet of ice.    Waiting for that warm SW wind to start up.   Models show it will hit in full force later this afternoon.

 

http://s18.postimg.org/5vzdb66ax/IMG_20140302_121949.jpg

 

Glad i missed the ZRbut at the same time I dont think i would mind it because this 36 degree rain is disqusting.

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Surprised we still have power here.

 

I was wishing we were still in Hawaii until I checked the weather there... glad we missed that.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif

How's it going with the icing? Still have power?

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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It's about as miserable as it gets out there today.  Currently raining and 35 here.  To me rain in the low to mid 30s feels a lot colder than snow.  The low temp dropped to 32 here so it was just on edge of freezing rain for a while.

 

The models appear to be showing some kind of Western ridge popping up toward the end of week one.  That would keep the NE quarter of the country colder than normal for a while longer.  It's like they stay cold no matter what combination of indices we get.  Pretty bizarre.  Given the extremely cold nature of some of the Western troughs this winter I would not surprised to see some kind of freaky late season cold snap here maybe toward late March or early April.  The LRC may be in effect when you consider we had a major blast in early Dec, a near miss in early Jan, a major blast in early Feb, and an epic blast this weekend that went JUST to the east of us.  With shorter wavelengths most likely to set in by early April that could be a period to watch for a late season cold snap here.  Too late for anything epic, but it can get pretty cold and snow a bit that time of year.

Yeah. rain and 36 here.  Was rain and 34 earlier. Despite the warming, goes right through your bones.

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How's it going with the icing? Still have power?

 

Up to 32 now with a dp of 29.

 

I can see water dripping off the roof now so its warming up.   

 

I am wondering what will happen when the 30-35 mph winds hit here in a couple hours with ice on power lines.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_wgsfc.15.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Do we have a La Nina developing?

 

 

While it looks La Nina ish at the time, it will soon change. Look at the subsurface temperatures in the Central North Pacific http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml...  Forecasts for a moderate El Nino at this point for next year look quite good http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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While it looks La Nina ish at the time, it will soon change. Look at the subsurface temperatures in the Central North Pacific http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml...  Forecasts for a moderate El Nino at this point for next year look quite good http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

The only way we could stop that is if the atmosphere is in a La Nina state when the Kelvin wave surfaces.  It could happen especially considering the oceanic Kelvin waves and atmosphere have frequently been out of synch over the past couple of years.  That having been said I think there is only a 25% or so chance we will avoid a Nino.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Up to 32 now with a dp of 29.

 

I can see water dripping off the roof now so its warming up.

 

I am wondering what will happen when the 30-35 mph winds hit here in a couple hours with ice on power lines.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_wgsfc.15.0000.gif

Hopefully the ice will be mostly off the lines by the time the wind comes!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looks like the anemometer at Corbett has finally froze up from the freezing rain.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=AU658&table=1&banner=off

Its been broken for the last week or so.  We are taking up a collection for Mark to go up with Stephanie and Sonja to put up a new one.  

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Ended up with a glazing of ice from ZR last night.  Enough east wind banked up against the east side of the coast range here above about 1300'. It never froze the road over thankfully.  but still made a mess out of my deck.  Pretty crazy for March at my location though.

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The mountains are just getting pounded!!  I could easily see snowfall accumulation above average by end of week, which seemed almost impossible a month ago.

 

Moderate rain all day in Issaquah.  Very raw.  But kind of nice to look at, next to a fire with your girlfriend. :)

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The mountains are just getting pounded!!  I could easily see snowfall accumulation above average by end of week, which seemed almost impossible a month ago.

 

Moderate rain all day in Issaquah.  Very raw.  But kind of nice to look at, next to a fire with your girlfriend. :)

We could see 4k-5k Snow levels for most the week if things go just a bit north. sub 3k if things go right :)

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Is it me, or is this latest surface low coming in much further south than what models predicted?  The GFS (at least at one time) was showing landfall north of WA, yet latest satellite pics show it coming into northwest OR (at least from the visible eye).

 

 

Coming in like this... there is more of a low in the base of the trough than was shown earlier.   But it did not matter for keeping cold in place.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.12.0000.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So glad for the rain shadow on days like this! Dry and just a little breezy here. Makes it much nicer for excersizing the dogs!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I think the odds are pretty high we get some kind of torch next winter. Doesn't mean we can't throw a January 1998 like event into the mix though. I really think 2015-16 could be big. 

Torch next winter?  This winter was pretty much a torch at least in the mountains and foothills.    All but two weeks were unusually warm and when i twas cold it was too dry for frost?    I hope we do have one more heavy frost spell at least before spring and summer is here for good!Q

 

Note I said frost. Not a deep freeze.  I just want it to go a touch below 32F one more time.

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Finally was able to navigate the roads and get down to North Bend.    Appears to be all rain now... and there was more snow in town than up here again.

 

A real mess out there:

http://s29.postimg.org/g2gtp1ml3/0302141631.jpg

 

http://s27.postimg.org/gcr3gmutf/IMG_20140302_163738.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Finally was able to navigate the roads and get down to North Bend.    Appears to be all rain now... and there was more snow in town than up here again.

 

A real mess out there:

http://s29.postimg.org/g2gtp1ml3/0302141631.jpg

 

http://s27.postimg.org/gcr3gmutf/IMG_20140302_163738.jpg

 

Nice...just a rain snow mix/cold rain all day. 

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how much snow did downtown North Bend get?

 

 

Looked like about 2-3 inches.

 

Here is a live view of North Bend now... you can see the snow on the rooftops.    Rain has stopped as well.

 

http://s28.postimg.org/4kvf0h099/Untitled.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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