October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Look at how similar the CONUS temp anomalies were compared  Sept '13 vs Sept '17...cooler near both coasts and warm in the middle...

 

 

[Hawkeye]

It was mentioned above that the weather.us site has free 3-hr Euro maps.  Ryan Maue, the guy responsible for creating the great weatherbell maps, recently left weatherbell to become the COO of weather.us.

[jaster220]

Beautiful day today...lots of sun and autumnlike temps.

Yes it was! And the skies over here were full of awesome clouds you only see in October around here. Deep blue, crisp clear low-humidity and several layers of mixed cloud types. Fantastic.

[OKwx2k4]

This is more like what I'm seeing going into the winter. It will snow here in NE Oklahoma by or during Thanksgiving if this is our pattern. Its going to be quite shocking to hit 1st 30s in early October for a lot of ppl as far south as me. I was thinking more mid-late October but I'll take this instead.

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

This is more like what I'm seeing going into the winter. It will snow here in NE Oklahoma by or during Thanksgiving if this is our pattern. Its going to be quite shocking to hit 1st 30s in early October for a lot of ppl as far south as me. I was thinking more mid-late October but I'll take this instead.

 

 

 

[Tom]

It was mentioned above that the weather.us site has free 3-hr Euro maps.  Ryan Maue, the guy responsible for creating the great weatherbell maps, recently left weatherbell to become the COO of weather.us.

Wonder why left WxBell...do you know?  I heard about this a few weeks ago that he no longer worked at Wx Bell.  Hope there wasn't a fallout.

[Tom]

First off, my heart goes out to everyone effected by this terrible incident which happened in Las Vegas last night.  Just terrible.

[james1976]

Yeah i just heard about that. Deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history. Unimaginable

[Tom]

In other news, the idea of widespread frosts and even possible freezes are looking likely between the 10th-12th.  #Harvest  The pattern evolving is actually surprising me as to how amplified it is forecast to get over the coming 2 weeks.  I just took a look at the GEFS 10mb/30mb stratosphere forecasts out into Week 2 (which I find it does a real good job) and it is showing a possible PV displacement sometime by the middle of October!  This would encourage cross polar flow into N.A. and a much colder outlook into the second half of October if this in fact does happen.  I'll continue to monitor this going forward which would be a very good indicator for cold risks.

 

Finally, with a flip of a switch, folks out east that have not been as lucky as those out west will see beneficial rainfall over the coming week.  Numerous rounds of storms this week and possible severe weather as the pattern turns very active.

 

 

 

[Tom]

IMO, I think we are going to see the first days of our new LRC pattern evolving during the Thu/Fri period out in the Plains states.  The old pattern is leaving and the new one is just about to begin this week.  Take a look at this 500mb forecast and you can see the "new" pattern all across Canada with a deep trough/vortex spinning near Hudson Bay while a cut-off piece of energy hanging out of the Rockies merges into the flow and snaps into a new LRC.  This storm system will probably produce some severe weather all across the same regions in the central/southern Plains/Midwest that were "stuck" in the long term long wave ridge last year.  Not this year!

 

GFS/EURO differ on the development of this piece of energy as the Euro is farther south than the GFS.  Let's see how this all plays out.  Finally, a new pattern is about to begin before our eyes!

 

 

[Niko]

After a morning low of 38F, my temps are now starting to recover. Currently at 46F. Brrrrr!!!

[Niko]

As a front approaches Wednesday, I have a shot at seeing 80F. Also a chance of some t'stms as well. Then, it cools off. Hope I receive some beneficial rains outta this front.

[Niko]

Yes it was! And the skies over here were full of awesome clouds you only see in October around here. Deep blue, crisp clear low-humidity and several layers of mixed cloud types. Fantastic.

Yes, October-like weather.

[St Paul Storm]

Picked up 0.55” of rain overnight with the storms that rolled up from the SW. Looking at a heavy rain event tonight with another 1-3” expected. Flash Flood Watch posted for the western and northern MSP metro. Loving these soaking rains before the cool weather hits.

[Tom]

Picked up 0.55” of rain overnight with the storms that rolled up from the SW. Looking at a heavy rain event tonight with another 1-3” expected. Flash Flood Watch posted for the western and northern MSP metro. Loving these soaking rains before the cool weather hits.

High Rez NAM showing a firehouse of moisture right over your place!  I'm liking the overall pattern this week and the chances of precip and cooler weather showing up for practically everyone in our sub forum.

 

[Niko]

My highs on Saturday probably not getting outta the 50s and lows in the 30s. I think once that chilly air arrives, its here to stay. Rebounding to 60s the following week.

[Niko]

Hopefully, no more tropical disturbances will be forming this season, but I hear something is brewing in the GOM.

[jaster220]

First off, my heart goes out to everyone effected by this terrible incident which happened in Las Vegas last night.  Just terrible.

 

Yeah i just heard about that. Deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history. Unimaginable

 

So sad, and just learned this morning that a regular poster on our local SMI site lost his wife unexpectedly. They just had their 3rd child a few months ago. He was in the Auburn Hills area a bit west of Niko's place. Between this and the shootings and the hurricanes - just too much tragedy lately!  Gonna cry "uncle" if this doesn't stop. Remember to be thankful if things are good in your little world, and lend a hand in whatever way you can to others in a time of need. 

[Niko]

So sad, and just learned this morning that a regular poster on our local SMI site lost his wife unexpectedly. They just had their 3rd child a few months ago. He was in the Auburn Hills area a bit west of Niko's place. Between this and the shootings and the hurricanes - just too much tragedy lately!  Gonna cry "uncle" if this doesn't stop. Remember to be thankful if things are good in your little world, and lend a hand in whatever way you can to others in a time of need. 

Its horrific! No words at all.

[jaster220]

This is more like what I'm seeing going into the winter. It will snow here in NE Oklahoma by or during Thanksgiving if this is our pattern. Its going to be quite shocking to hit 1st 30s in early October for a lot of ppl as far south as me. I was thinking more mid-late October but I'll take this instead.

 

 

 

gfs_T2ma_us_34.png

 

You nailed it!

 

Heck, whilst others on my street are busy putting up Holloweenie decorations, I'm thinking about at least hanging my Christmas lights (not lighting them, lol). Normally wait til right after T-day, but in 2011 we had that heavy snowstorm on the 29th and I had to move snow to put out my decorations. It's rare here, but I remember the added risk of roof level work when there's snow and ice everywhere - not good. If the truth were known, me and ladders don't get along too well as it is 

[Tom]

12z GFS spinning up a strong Lakes storm this Sat that develops coming out of CO....neg tilt...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

then....trying to flash the first snow maps that paint the NW plains of NE into SD!  The 00z Euro showed something similar a couple days ago.

 

 

 

[jaster220]

 

 

then....trying to flash the first snow maps that paint the NW plains of NE into SD!  The 00z Euro showed something similar a couple days ago.

 

Wait! Wait! We still need an autumn ovva here..   This would be some kind of historic period if we crashed into winter over the next 6 wks.  I mean, '89 came on early like that but not on the heals of record smashing heat in Sept. Was quite the opposite iirc. Cold-cold-cold was the rule of thumb that autumn. 

[Tom]

Wait! Wait! We still need an autumn ovva here.. This would be some kind of historic period if we crashed into winter over the next 6 wks. I mean, '89 came on early like that but not on the heals of record smashing heat in Sept. Was quite the opposite iirc. Cold-cold-cold was the rule of thumb that autumn.

I like that link you posted about the winter of '81-'82 and provided me some thoughts going forward. I must say, there are some very loud signals being presented by the modeling that steer into the '81-'82 winter and several other severe winters. I'm not saying it WILL happen, but if it does, we can circle back and see we were forewarned in October. Let's see how this month shakes out bc I think its going to throw some surprises.

[Tom]

Wait! Wait! We still need an autumn ovva here..   This would be some kind of historic period if we crashed into winter over the next 6 wks.  I mean, '89 came on early like that but not on the heals of record smashing heat in Sept. Was quite the opposite iirc. Cold-cold-cold was the rule of thumb that autumn. 

Hey buddy, 12z GFS in lala land...say what?!

 

[james1976]

Pattern change! Curious on Lezak's thoughts.

[NEJeremy]

Second season of Severe Wx lighting up NE this evening...already several Tornado reports in KS...I know we had a member near Kearney, NE...squall line ripping through there ATM

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/UEX/N0Q/UEX.N0Q.20171002.0247.gif

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.gif

 

I was chasing yesterday. That long lasting super cell that formed in Kansas would have had a long track tornado or produced a whole family of tornadoes if the dews were maybe 3-5 degrees higher. The bases were a bit too high. Most of the day they were only in the mid to upper 50s and temps were in the upper 70s. The inflow into that thing was 40+mph most of the time. There was blowing dust and corn husks being sucked into it in a lot of areas. Saw only a brief funnel, and the pics/videos I did see were only of brief rope tornadoes. 

[Tom]

I was chasing yesterday. That long lasting super cell that formed in Kansas would have had a long track tornado or produced a whole family of tornadoes if the dews were maybe 3-5 degrees higher. The bases were a bit too high. Most of the day they were only in the mid to upper 50s and temps were in the upper 70s. The inflow into that thing was 40+mph most of the time. There was blowing dust and corn husks being sucked into it in a lot of areas. Saw only a brief funnel, and the pics/videos I did see were only of brief rope tornadoes. 

I had a feeling you were out chasing that day.  It's too bad you didn't score your Tornado.  There may be a good chance later this week or into the weekend.  Next time!

[Tom]

Big uptick on a strong storm tracking near MSP...970's/980's showing up...

 

[james1976]

Could be an interesting system out in the Plains if high pressure wouldnt kill it. Something to keep an eye on. Tight baraclonic zone.

[jaster220]

Hey buddy, 12z GFS in lala land...say what?!

 

 

Hahaha, nothing if not a timely model snag! Sure, it's the overly amped GFS, but how ironic we had that legit 1st snowfall/storm on Oct 19th of '89.  Not sure how far models were going out to back then, but the avg Joe non-NWS employee didn't see a snowstorm coming for central Indiana in the middle of Oct! 

 

Big uptick on a strong storm tracking near MSP...970's/980's showing up...

 

 

And THIS - looks like 11-17-13, just earlier in the autumn thus further north. That was also a snow-less wonder (considering it was mid-Nov already). 

[Minny_Weather]

Hey buddy, 12z GFS in lala land...say what?!

 

[Niko]

Any snows in October are useless to me. I prefer to get the 1st real snowevent either b4 Thanksgiving or after. Prolly because it will most likely stick around more.

[Niko]

Currently, sunny and gorgeous out there. It almost feels warm. Temps are in the upper 60s...nearing 70F.

[james1976]

Any snows in October are useless to me. I prefer to get the 1st real snowevent either b4 Thanksgiving or after. Prolly because it will most likely stick around more.

I love early snows! Gets me amped.

[Stormgeek]

It appears the flash flood watch has been expanded to include the Twin Cities. Going to be a fun night ahead.

[james1976]

RIP Tom Petty. What a sad day

[Tom]

Hahaha, nothing if not a timely model snag! Sure, it's the overly amped GFS, but how ironic we had that legit 1st snowfall/storm on Oct 19th of '89.  Not sure how far models were going out to back then, but the avg Joe non-NWS employee didn't see a snowstorm coming for central Indiana in the middle of Oct! 

 

 

And THIS - looks like 11-17-13, just earlier in the autumn thus further north. That was also a snow-less wonder (considering it was mid-Nov already). 

It was the Universe listening and guiding us!

 

That system  in the middle of Nov '13 cycled through like clock work in every cycle and rocked the Northwoods & northern GL's with near Blizzard conditions.  It was what brought us south of that storm track a 1-2 day pullback before the cold reloaded.  Remember it like it was yesterday.

[St Paul Storm]

18z Hi-res NAM has tonight’s line of storms sitting over MSP for nearly 7-8 hours. I sure hope that’s not the case. I love autumn rains but D**n. Not that much.

[Tom]

12z EPS jumped on board with the 12z GEFS and now showing a developing short wave coming out of the CO Rockies and the 12z Euro showing it going neg tilt as it heads up towards the GL's.  Should be fun seeing what transpires with this one later in the week.

[Stormgeek]

18z Hi-res NAM has tonight’s line of storms sitting over MSP for nearly 7-8 hours. I sure hope that’s not the case. I love autumn rains but d**n. Not that much.

I was looking at that... Sitting just north of the cities, so might be in for quite the night if that pans out.

 

Edit: Current trends seem to be setting up that way with this initial band.